As a result of a successful special operation of Ukrainian military intelligence in cyberspace, it was possible to obtain a large volume of classified official documents from a structural unit of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, we are talking about the Federal Air Transport Agency (also known as Rosaviatsia). This department is responsible for flight safety and records emergencies during the use of Russian aviation.
Among the data obtained is a list of daily reports from the Federal Air Transport Agency for more than a year and a half. An analysis of the information shows that the civil aviation sector in the Russian Federation is on the verge of collapse.
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Documents of the Federal Air Transport Agency: what became known
During January 2023, 185 aircraft accidents were recorded in Russian civil aviation. About a third are classified as incidents of varying levels of severity. The leader is the Russian short-haul aircraft Sukhoi Superjet – 34 problem cases.
In the first nine months of 2023, 150 cases of technical malfunctions of aircraft were documented in the Russian Federation. Over the same period in 2022, 50 such incidents were recorded. The danger of flights has tripled, Ukrainian intelligence noted.
The most problematic areas of Russian aviation remain engines and landing gear, as well as other important elements – hydraulic systems, flaps and software.
Russia has problems with servicing aircraft that have a lot of flying time. Due to a lack of capacity and specialists, Moscow is trying to redirect aircraft maintenance to Iran, where this work does not have the appropriate certification.
What problems does the Russian Federation have in aircraft maintenance?
The Russian Federation had about 820 foreign-made civilian aircraft, as of March 2022. Then only up to 10% of them went through uncertified repairs, during which non-authentic spare parts were used. Now almost 70% of the aircraft fleet operates this way.
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The problem with the shortage of spare parts led to “aircraft cannibalism,” that is, the Russians dismantled some planes in order to repair others. By mid-2023, more than 35% of aircraft in the Russian Federation had been dismantled in this way.
Most Soviet An-2s can no longer take off because their engines were produced in Poland. Due to the imposition of sanctions, supplies have been stopped.
During January 2023, 19 different failures were recorded among 220 Airbus aircraft. In particular, 17 cases of smoke were recorded in nine aircraft. In another 230 Boeing aircraft, 33 technical failures of certain aircraft systems were recorded.
How sanctions affect “avian cannibalism” in the Russian Federation
Ukrainian intelligence noted that failures with engines, landing gear and wing mechanization are systemic.
The GUR notes that this is a direct consequence of the sanctions imposed against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. The most painful of them:
- ban on the supply of aircraft and spare parts for them;
- complete refusal to provide maintenance and software updates;
- detention of Russian aircraft abroad;
- restriction of access to meteorological information for air navigation.
This indicates that the civil aviation sector in Russia has a high risk of ending up in the so-called zone of serious turbulence.
