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The future of the coronavirus pandemic predicted

by alex

The future of the coronavirus pandemic predicted

Scientists at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon predict that the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 will become seasonal in the future in temperate countries, but only when herd immunity develops. This is reported in an article published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health.

The researchers looked at well-known seasonal viruses such as the flu virus and coronaviruses that cause the common cold. In winter in temperate countries there is a peak in the incidence of these pathogens, but viruses circulate year-round in tropical regions. Scientists examined the factors that control the seasonality of viral infections, and also took into account the data on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

It turned out that the survival rate of viruses in the air and on surfaces, as well as the susceptibility to infections and the tendency of people to congregate indoors, depend on seasonal changes in temperature and humidity. Compared to influenza and other respiratory diseases, the new coronavirus has a higher transmission rate due to the lack of immunity in most people. That is why the factors affecting seasonality cannot yet stop the spread of COVID-19 in the summer months.

It is only when many people develop sustained immunity after immunization or recovery that the virus will become more susceptible to seasonal factors. Prior to that, strict measures must be followed to limit the spread of coronavirus infection.

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