More than a year has passed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During this time, the attitude of the West towards Ukraine has changed radically. There are still countries in the European Union that, under the guise of neutrality, continue to maintain ties with the aggressor, and also refuse to provide weapons to Ukraine – for one reason or another.
About the atmosphere in Vienna at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Austrian neutrality, as well as the strange tandem between Hungary and Austria – read in an exclusive interview with Ambassador-at-Large of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Austria (2016-2021) Oleksandr Shcherba to Channel 24 .
The first days of the war and new threats to Ukraine
Lately, the Allies have been talking about the decisive months and weeks in the war. Why? What do you hear about this from fellow diplomats? Do you believe that there will be a new invasion from the North and from Belarus?
I think there were three turning points in this war:
- The first one was when Ukraine showed that it could not be broken. That is, Russia will not win this war. This was when the Russians were pushed back from the Kyiv region and Northern and Central Ukraine.
- The second turning point was when Ukraine showed that it was capable of winning. It was August-September last year, when the Ukrainian offensive was announced and implemented. But not in the place where everyone was waiting, but in the end in the Kharkov region. It was an amazing operation and our partners (and we ourselves!) saw that the Ukrainian army is able to drive this trash from our land, to be truly victorious.
Now, it seems to me, is the third moment when we must show that we can not just win, but win. We have already announced that there will be a Russian offensive, we will repel it, and then there will be a large Ukrainian counteroffensive. From its success, from how convincing our victory will be in it, depends on whether we can, in principle, completely undermine the spirit in the ranks of the Russian occupiers.
Watch the full video of the interview with Ambassador Alexander Shcherba:
More importantly, to undermine what Surkov called the trust between the deep people and the “supreme leader.” The whole Putin construct rests on this one factor: the faith of people outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg in this particular “tsar”. When we manage to win a fairly convincing victory in the Crimea or in Melitopol and Berdyansk, it seems to me that this faith will crumble, and the entire Putin structure will crumble accordingly.
As for the offensive from the North, we must trust our intelligence. And intelligence says that now there are no sufficient forces for this. If the Russians begin to redeploy the forces that are now holding beyond the Urals, then the danger will appear. That is, one must be careful in forecasts.
Almost a year has passed since the start of a full-scale invasion. Did you then have illusions that it would last more than a year? Should we all be preparing for a long-distance race?
You know, this war is insane, primarily from the point of view of Russia's strategic interests. And madness is very difficult to calculate, especially in time.
Therefore, of course, I, like everyone else, wanted to believe that everything would last “two or three weeks maximum,” as we were told. In principle, and thank God that we believed. Those speakers of the Ukrainian government, who were at the very beginning, managed to calm people down and prevent panic among the population. But, of course, rational thinking and one glance at the world map gives an understanding of what a huge, terrible, full of hatred and anger force we are dealing with now, and it is quite possible that it will be a marathon, not a sprint.
In this context, the latest, one might say, stuffing that Europe is tired of helping Ukraine, its financial reserves and arms stocks are being depleted. In your opinion, is there any truth in this, are these all myths and IPSO of Russian propaganda? People always get tired of war, war is scary, war is hard. I'm not talking about what fatigue, what loads, what sacrifices our soldiers make on the front line. But the civilian population in Ukraine and next to us in Europe also pays its price. And we should be grateful to the Europeans that, for example, during this winter they were ready to pay an increased price for energy resources. It should be understood that in Europe this is a sensitive thing. We remember how the price of gasoline was raised a little – and the whole of France was shaking from the uprising of the yellow jackets.
Therefore, the fact that Europeans pay more than usual is not just that. At the same time, I think that the factor of fatigue is present, but the Europeans nevertheless drew conclusions about who is right in this war and who is wrong, who is the monster and the aggressor, and who is defending their land. And the conclusion is in our favor.
On the other hand, it includes such European habits as the “peace movement”, which traditionally had close ties to Russia. It is not excluded that there will be demonstrations for the end of the war, the start of negotiations. But we must understand: this is not a demonstration of an anti-Ukrainian position. The Europeans see this as a protest against the forces interested in the war. In their understanding, this is the military-industrial complex, “corrupt politicians.” They are easy to criticize. Putin and Russia are already in second place. Such are the illusions.
How do you feel about the anniversary of the full-scale invasion? Can you highlight any of the strongest impressions for you personally this year?
Oh, how many impressions there were, how many tears there were. I'm now looking through some of my interviews that I gave in March, and I'm really on the verge of tears there, I'm talking about Bucha, about the suffering that befell Ukraine. It was a terrible, hard year, but also a proud one. Who would have thought that we would stop this completely barbaric, dark, black force. Ukraine did it. Ukraine has become a reference point for many people, it has awakened the world. She ceased to be a victim for the outside world, but became a heroic figure, a symbol of invincibility.
What are your most memorable moments? Of course, this is the first, second day. When it all started I was woken up by my friends in Washington sometime between 4 and 5 o'clock in the morning and yelling into the phone – and I quote – “That jerk has sent troops!” I drank coffee, went to look outside, what was happening there, I saw how all the people were running somewhere, I saw a soldier, a young man who was running holding a military uniform. He probably needed to get to the collection point.
I saw young girls saying goodbye to their boyfriends, mothers saying goodbye to their sons at the Golden Gate metro station. Will you forget it? I only knew this from the World War II films that I grew up watching. I never thought that I would see it with my own eyes. There were many unforgettable moments that gave pride in their Ukraine.
Remember the early days of a full-scale war. Where did she take you? In the early days in different capitals they looked at us as if we were terminally ill. Do you, as a former ambassador, know what the atmosphere was like in Vienna? What did you hear and perhaps see in the eyes of your Austrian colleagues in the early days and on the eve of the invasion?
What touched me very much was an Austrian journalist who often mocked Ukraine, our desire to be a member of the European Union. He did not hide his ironic attitude. In the first hours of the war, he texted me “You are the biggest Europeans of us all”, and it was very touching. Then I was approached by a woman who was looking for a place to stay in Vienna. I wrote to this journalist. It turned out that he had several apartments and he placed this woman and her family in one of them for free. It was unforgettable.
He gave a lot of interviews in those days (then everyone gave interviews, it was just non-stop). Once I spoke on Austrian television, and suddenly I feel that they are looking at me, at all of us, as if they were walking dead. That is, it is clear that another day or two and that's it, Russian troops will be there, and it is not known what will happen to this person.
I even canceled an interview once. It was the BBC, in early March. The BBC has this tradition: they first call the person and ask what your vision is on this or that issue in order to understand what they will hear during the interview. A woman calls me and starts asking, “Well, seriously, you don't think you'll be able to defend Kyiv?” I answered her that, of course, we will defend Kyiv and win this war. She continues to stand her ground: “No, well, tell me honestly, how do you think everything will be next?” I say, I told you honestly and seriously. And when she asked me for the third time, I told her that, perhaps, I would not give this interview. She wished me goodbye all the same, so that I was alive and well. That is, there was such a fact. Perhaps it was an emotional reaction, but on the other hand, why communicate with people who sympathize with you, but a priori do not believe?
Austrian neutrality and connections with Hungary
And what do you generally connect this Austrian neutrality with and does this position bring Austria closer to Russia? What are these close ties between Austria and Russia based on?
You see, Austria is a former empire that knows Russia well historically. Before the First World War, they were in joint coalitions, fought on the same side. In some things, Austria even owes Russia, if you look at the history of certain wars. Therefore, this imperial tradition is one of the roots of the Russian-Austrian tandem.
At the same time, Austria is a country with a pronounced liberal, I would even say leftist thinking. In any case, it developed under this influence after the Second World War. Yes, and Russia is also a country where leftist ideas coexist with imperial ones. This liberal-imperial mix unites these countries.
But even more they are united by the fact that Austria has become very rich in the more than 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was enriched precisely due to the fact that it was, as they say, a bridge between East and West. Austria – it was, as they say, a “rookery” of money from the post-Soviet space. Clean and unclean, honest and dishonest, but for Austria and the Austrian economy, this was a positive thing.
At a certain stage, the Austrians believed that they had discovered the secret of happiness in life and it is called “neutrality”. That is, I do not touch you, you do not touch me, let's make money together. Of course, this is an illusion, because neutrality only works when you are surrounded on all sides by friends, and not by countries like Russia. Unfortunately, Austrians still like to live in this illusion.
What are the most absurd things about Ukraine you've heard from Russian propaganda in Austria? And how do the Austrians perceive it?
The problem with the Austrians is the same as with any other Western liberal. They believe that the truth must necessarily be somewhere in between. Therefore, at first they listen attentively to the Ukrainian, then they attentively listen to the Russian, they do not argue with any of them, and then they try to find out where the middle is.
“The truth is somewhere in the middle” – this is perhaps the biggest illusion and stereotype of the liberal world.
But in the first days and weeks of the war, I did not recognize Austria, I wept and was proud of her. When the historical gates of the Heroes in Vienna were illuminated in blue and yellow, and the president and the chancellor stood in front of these gates and spoke words of support to Ukraine… When the most massive rally in many decades gathered there… When people massively advocated an immediate end to the war and an end to the occupation of Ukraine. I then said to myself: finally, Austria has rejected its rather hypocritical neutrality, and at the same time has taken a position of goodness. I was looking for the truth not in the middle, but where the truth is. It was a touching moment.
Well, what does Russian propaganda tell, I was always most outraged and at the same time amused by the assertion that it was not Russia that attacked Ukraine, but the West attacked Russia, or at least was preparing to attack. This is just a blatant denial of the obvious. We remember how in 2021 almost all European leaders visited Putin and begged him almost on their knees not to start a war. Well, you see, it finally turned out that they “attacked” Putin. This is absolute Orwell, just awful.
Now they are trying to become a kind of mediator between Russia and the EU. Replace, perhaps, somewhere along the way the French, who are sometimes considered already “hawks”. But besides criticizing the real results, Austria has not achieved here, while this position already brings them closer to Hungary as the well-known Russian ambassador to the EU. In your opinion, is adding any more countries to this “anti-war” coalition capable of creating a certain association within the EU, and how dangerous can this be for us as a result?
Hungary is a country where a kind of conventional European Trumpism, an extreme form of ultranationalism, has won. Austria is a liberal country in love with Europe. Orban constantly criticizes a united Europe, while Austria, on the contrary, loves this European idea. Therefore, the Austria-Hungary tandem that has suddenly arisen recently may sound familiar to the ear, but ideologically it is a union of different entities.
We see that Austria never blocks Ukraine, but rather supports it. Even now, in the painful issue of a boycott of the Olympic Games in the event of the participation of athletes from Russia and Belarus, look at the countries that supported the position of Ukraine – there is also neutral Austria. Even in this she is with us. But on the other hand, she has what I mentioned – a fascination with neutrality. Although, it seems to me, internally, deep down in their hearts, they understand that it is nonsense when a country is a member of the EU (that is, a member of a certain alliance of countries) is neutral at the same time.
The European Union always chooses a side in almost all conflicts. So Austria chooses a side. Therefore, there is no neutrality. Simple logic refutes this ideological construct. But the Austrians want to believe in it, what can you do.
At the end of last year, Austrian Defense Minister Claudia Tanner warned that a blackout would await her country and parts of the EU. Today we see that this did not happen even in Ukraine, but on the contrary, there is a tendency to solve all problems with electricity. Do you think such statements are intended to add some panic to the EU or were they really a preparation for possible problems?
At the beginning of the war, there were big fears about how exactly Europe would survive the winter without Russian gas. The same Austria over the past 50 years has built its energy security, especially in winter, on the import of Russian gas. But we see that we overwintered, passed, neither we nor the Europeans broke down. And therefore it is an amazing story when the Minister of Defense makes such forecasts for the energy security of Austria and all of Europe.
It was also surprising when this minister recently made a statement together with the Hungarian Minister of Defense that they would not supply us with weapons. As if we were counting on that weapon or asking for it. Why this statement? Where did it come from? Some kind of absurdity.
“Zeitenwende” never arrived for Austria
Austria is historically a very close country to Germany. At the same time, Berlin's policy towards Ukraine and Russia has undergone radical changes this year. Austria continues to maintain its demonstrative neutrality and purchase Russian gas, thereby maintaining its dependence on Russia. Why do you think these two countries have such serious disagreements on such fundamental issues?
It just goes to show that Germany, when she announced the “Zeitenwende”, that is, the change of times, had this in mind. This despite the fact that for Germany it was a much harder step than for Austria, given the incredible amount of dependence of the German economy on Russian gas.
Austria, at the same time as Germany, made the same declarations and swore the same oaths. It was touching. I believed in it. And to see now that the German dependence on Russian gas is 0%, and the Austrian 70% – this is just an indicator of who was seriously talking about changing times, and who was just playing. I don't understand this figure – 70%. Austria at the beginning of the war said that it would stop financing the genocide machine that Putin launched. Is she no longer experiencing problems with this car, is she already returning to “bussines as usual”?
Despite this, very positive signals have recently been heard in the West, especially regarding the supply of weapons and equipment. In your opinion, what has changed in the general perception of this war in the West and what decisions should be expected in the near future?
Ukraine became the leader of the free world, woke up the world, reminded that it is impossible to reduce its entire system of values to simple pragmatism. Behind the word “pragmatism” was hidden greed, readiness to believe lies, cowardice. All the worst that was in the Western community of states, in Western thinking, in Western man, it was hidden behind this simple and attractive word – “pragmatism”.
But suddenly something happened. Putin went to war, awakening in the hearts and memory of Europeans memories associated with the events of 80 years ago. People woke up on a February morning and saw what they saw. First, they cried over Ukraine, which supposedly had no chance. Then they could not hide their delight that this simple, modest people could stop the darkness. As that Austrian journalist said, we have become more European than anyone. This is a historical moment that forms a completely new idea of Ukraine in the world.
