The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine will continue into the new year. The next few months will provide critical clues as to whether the invaders will be able to hold on to the occupied territories.
The Wall Street Journal has identified six important factors influencing the course of the war in the first months of 2023.
“Mud Season”: the impact of weather on the situation at the front
In Ukraine, the “season of mud” continues. Due to the mud, even tracked vehicles have difficulty moving. Despite the fact that the temperature dropped below zero, however, it did not stay low long enough for the soil to freeze. Therefore, on most of the front line, the pace of hostilities slowed down.
WSJ analysts suggest that after the cold snap, the intensity of the war is likely to increase. This is likely to benefit Ukraine, which has proven its ability to maneuver quickly. However, this could make it harder for advancing forces to defend newly recaptured positions.
The WSJ notes that the Ukrainian military has more modern cold-weather gear and appears to be better prepared for winter than the Russian occupiers.
Ukrainian supply lines are shorter and Ukrainian troops move in between and beyond the front lines, allowing them to rest and recuperate. They also seem to be more motivated than the Russian forces.
However, severe cold snaps could make life difficult for civilians behind the lines amid Russian attacks on energy and thermal infrastructure. Attempts to undermine the morale of Ukrainians are futile. In addition, massive enemy rocket launchers will not help the Russians on the battlefield.
Bakhmut also has psychological significance for the Russians
For several months in a row, fierce battles have been going on in the Bakhmut direction. The occupiers do not abandon their attempts to capture the city, even though they suffered huge losses there.
Analysts say that this is not only the strategic plan of the occupiers, it also has psychological significance. The retreat of the UAF would allow the invaders to take higher and more protected positions. Also, an enthusiastic city would play in favor of propagandists.
The capture of Bakhmut is important primarily for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. This allowed him to declare that Russia is realizing its claims to occupy the Donetsk region.
Bakhmut is also important to Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose mercenaries from the Wagner PPK carry out most of the fighting. This would help confirm his claims that he is in charge of the best fighting force in Russia. Success in the Bakhmut direction will also help the commander of the occupying forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, to justify his decision to withdraw the Russians from Kherson last month.
Nikolai Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that Russia's attention to Bakhmut suggests that military goals are dictated by political considerations. This shows that Russia “still does not have strong military-political relations, unlike Ukraine”.
Ukrainian military offensive
Experts suggest that Ukraine retains much of the strategic initiative in the war after regaining large swaths of territory captured by Russia in the fall. They believe that Ukraine will want to continue the offensive in the winter and, if possible, push back the Russian invaders even further.
According to Beleskov, the timing of subsequent achievements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decisive.
Also, military analysts identified two possible directions of Ukrainian offensives. The first will be aimed at the line between the cities of Svatovo and Kremennaya in the Luhansk region, which is adjacent to the important R-66 highway. The second – to the cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk in the Zaporozhye region.
Defense of the Russian invaders
After the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate their territory, the Russian invaders defend a much shorter section of the front. According to Ukrainian estimates, the front has been reduced from about 1,100 km to about 885 km, of which about 386 km are river barriers. And the likely directions of Ukraine's attack are obvious to the Russians as well.
The invaders continue to dig trenches to protect a significant part of the front and beyond. This also extended to the Crimea, even to the beaches there, to prevent a possible Ukrainian landing.
The formation is formed in depth as the established Russian forces attract reservists. But the Ukrainian fighters will be able to see where the Russians have dug in, and the loss of leaves on the trees will make hiding positions more difficult.
The width of the areas where the invaders are digging in indicates that Moscow “is preparing for any possible contingency, but it will not spare them if, after all, we carry out detailed planning and a classic offensive operation with appropriate capabilities,” Beleskov said.
It is noted that the goal of Russia, with the exception of Bakhmut and a few other regions, is to not lose. Michael Clarke, a visiting professor of defense studies at King's College London, says Russia appears to be “hoping for something to happen”, such as the disappearance of Western support in the winter, or the weakening of US support as Republican influence rises.
Probable Russian Offensive
Not anymore once information appeared in the media that Russia was preparing a new offensive. Analysts are still skeptical about the success of the Russians. They believe that it is unlikely that the occupiers will be able to do what they failed to do earlier this year with a much more combat-ready and trained army.
According to experts, warnings about a possible new offensive by Russian troops can be aimed at, firstly, leveling complacency about the incompetence still demonstrated by the Russian military, and secondly, to put pressure on Ukraine's Western partners so that they continued to supply Kyiv with weapons and ammunition.
Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, expressed doubts about the imminent full-scale attack from Belarus on Kyiv.
Support for international partners
Putin hopes that Western support will falter, but that hasn't happened yet. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington this month demonstrates that US support is solid. The same can be seen in European governments.
The latest U.S. support package includes the first Patriot air defense battery to help protect Ukrainian energy facilities and other infrastructure hit by drone, ballistic and cruise missile attacks. Patriot will require the preparation of Ukrainian forces, which means that it may not appear until spring.
According to Beleskov, the delivery of the Patriot system provides for a paradigm shift by Western supporters of Ukraine, who previously reacted to what is happening on the ground, and now acted ahead of schedule in anticipation of the expected supply of ballistic missiles to Russia from Iran.
Some Western leaders continue to talk about peace conditions. Thus, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the West should provide security guarantees to Russia in the framework of any negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
But any such peace talks seem to be far away, the WSJ claims. Zelenskiy says Ukraine's goal is to regain all the territories lost since 2014, while Putin's rhetoric continues to testify to maximalist ambitions and portray the war as part of an ongoing struggle between Russia and the West.
