Publication author
Ivan Kirichevskiy
Now the situation seems such that it is too early to talk about the end of the war in 2023. However, on the other hand, the next 3 months will determine the course of our path to victory, that is, how soon it will be.
The enemy is trying to steal our time
At present, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have a significant shortage of all the necessary resources. Therefore, from time to time there is a dilemma at the suggestion of Western partners – either preparing for a counteroffensive, or defending Bakhmut.
Our military-political leadership has made a strong-willed choice. Both processes – that is, the battles for the “Bakhmut fortress” and preparations for the counteroffensive – are taking place in parallel. It really brings results. If only because the very high losses of the invaders near Bakhmut create a “window of opportunity” to further liberate our lands.
Another really scarce resource for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is time, which the Russians are constantly trying to “steal” from us. Here we are talking not only about Russia's attempts to “rock” Moldova and open a second front from Transnistria, but also about the fact that in the fall of 2023 the Russians plan to finally repair the Crimean bridge so that military echelons can go there again.
Due to the activity of the Russians in the South and such time pressure, the option arises to hit Melitopol first of all in order to cut off all communications of the Russian army to the temporarily occupied Crimea.
Spring counter-offensive will affect the decision of the West on aviation
But here in Ukraine there are also advantages, which we definitely underestimate for the time being. To begin with, in order to prepare for a counteroffensive in the spring of 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should receive not just a set of equipment and weapons. Here we are talking about the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will essentially receive ready-made mechanized battalions and brigades from scratch, already trained, well-coordinated and ready to go into battle.
Many important weapons programs for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are scheduled in advance for at least the whole of 2023, or even beyond. For example, a program for the production of ammunition from the United States and some Eastern European NATO countries or contracts for the production of literally dozens of PzH 2000 and Polish self-propelled guns Krab.
Rammstein also sets the necessary inertia. Therefore, obviously, one should not be surprised further where the Soviet-style equipment comes from in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in the desert camouflage inherent in the Middle East or the Maghreb.
Moreover, there is one very important aviation detail that has not yet been paid attention to. Although the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have (or already have) from the United States JDAM guided bombs, the throwing range of which is up to 40 kilometers, it is unlikely that we had specialists capable of working with such weapons. Therefore, it seems that we are talking not only about the fact that our pilots study according to NATO standards. It seems that it is the success of the spring counter-offensive that will determine concrete prospects for Ukraine in terms of aircraft – that is, which types, how much and when they will give.
The appearance in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of means of long-range delivery of “cotton” across the territory of Russia also adds to the positive dynamics of the situation. Because the clear intention is to squander the potential of Russia by asymmetric means so that it is definitely incapable of a protracted war.
The Russians may still think about the losses
If we talk about the weaknesses of the Russians in the next few months, they are quite unexpected.
Let's start with the fact that the mobilization potential of Russians must be assessed not only by the amount of “cannon fodder” recruited, but also by the distribution of resources. Against the background of the fact that the occupiers lose at least 150 tanks every month, and instead receive a maximum of 25 new ones, they have such prospects.
The Russians seem to “not take into account” the level of their losses, but in fact, in each of its wars, Russia could not withstand high losses for a long time. When HIMARS will be able to beat them at airfields in the temporarily occupied Crimea, the Russians will begin to feel their losses many times more acutely.
It won't be easy for anyone. But this is exactly how it should be on the way to victory, which will determine our lives for decades to come.
