Will there really be 20 hours of no power in winter: a candid interview with Mikhail Podolyak

Will there really be 20 hours of no power in winter: a candid interview with Mikhail Podolyak Ekaterina Solyar Oksana Kharkovska

Ukraine is preparing for the heating season, and what kind of winter we will have depends on the number of massive missile strikes by the occupiers. However, although it is difficult, we will get through the upcoming heating season.

But is it really worth fearing 20-hour power outages? In an exclusive interview with Channel 24, Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, commented. Read more about what winter will be like in the article below.

Recall that in the first part of the interview we talked about what Volodymyr Zelensky's plan for victory in the war would include. More important details – read the link.

Putin wants to fly to Turkey with his fighters: what Erdogan can do

During his visit to Turkey, Vladimir Putin wants his plane to be escorted by Russian fighter jets, because he is afraid that Ukraine will try to shoot down the plane during the flight. The Kremlin is also afraid of an assassination attempt on Putin and his entourage, because Turkey is a NATO member. In your opinion, will Russian fighter jets be allowed in NATO's sovereign space??

Unfortunately, the international legal space does not work yet. Putin is aware of this and therefore constantly wants to prove at various levels that there is no international law, no agreements, no alliances. Like, if you behave as brazenly as possible, then you will influence the situation, you will dominate. Trying to legally enter the airspace of a NATO country is another attempt to show that you are dominant.

I don't quite understand why Turkey needs to emphasize this. In my opinion, Turkey is truly a regional leader today, and a little more than Russia, if we are talking about the Black Sea area. Turkey can certainly behave more aggressively – in a good way – towards Russia.

We understand that Turkey is interested in obtaining additional economic opportunities, and it can take advantage of the moment. This is its right, like any other country. India and China are doing the same. They want to speculatively obtain maximum profitability from Russia today, because they have internal economic problems.

We know what is happening with the lira, that in general the same thing is happening in the Turkish economy as in the Chinese economy. Therefore, the opportunity to get an additional dividend from Russia, which is suffering from a loss of reputation, is a normal strategy.

However, if you are a global, regional leader, then you do not need to change your rules or the rules that guarantee you certain relations within the North Atlantic Alliance. Russia will give you everything anyway.

Putin is openly playing his infernal game when he notes that he will fly with his fighters, and Turkey should guarantee this to him. He wants to show his monstrosity, that he is breaking global rules, and strives to prove his dominance.

Whether Turkey will react to this somehow, we will see. But it seems to me that leadership should be emphasized in any format, and Mr. Erdogan can do this. In addition, he has clearly shown that he is not bypassed by Russia's concepts. Erdogan says that international law must be followed and therefore Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.

Are there “Istanbul agreements” that Putin constantly refers to?

In recent months, Putin has very often referred to some “Istanbul agreements”. Previously, he tried to talk about the “Minsk agreements” for 8 years. At the same time, Erdogan notes that Turkey sincerely wants the war to end with a just, lasting peace based on the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. This means that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.

A very simple answer: Putin, as always, is openly lying – not even manipulating. He is exclusively a person who always sells lies. There are no signed “Istanbul agreements”, because Russia insisted on the ultimatum fulfillment of its demands both in Istanbul and in Belarus:

• to give up Ukrainian territory and legally register it as Russia's. This is impossible, international law does not allow this to be done, and no one in Ukraine would ever do this;
• Ukraine must renounce its internal and external subjectivity;
• Russia wants to decide for itself what languages, culture, and history will be in Ukraine;
• lifting sanctions against Russia;
• Ukraine has no right to demand compensation or legal responsibility for the crimes, because Russia has committed no crimes.

This nonsense cannot be signed, let alone seriously discussed. It is not a question of there being any agreements. The President of Ukraine spoke about this – he did not give anyone a mandate to sign any. Therefore, there are no “Istanbul agreements”. Putin is openly lying and will continue to do so, because Putin's entire policy is always to lie. He believes that he will lie, and others will begin to pursue some other policy around this lie.

They are quite seriously discussing the “Istanbul agreements”, which do not exist. They are discussing this concept, saying that everything was signed, but Boris Johnson (former Prime Minister of Great Britain – Channel 24) arrived and stopped it all. It's not like that at all.

This is Russia's tactic – to throw in outright nonsense and create a discussion around it, scale it up. Then say that “we could have finished almost everything back then.” The Russians say that we simply offered Ukraine not to join NATO, for this we went in and killed thousands of people in the Kyiv region. They are discussing this incredible nonsense quite seriously. Therefore, there are no “Istanbul agreements”.

According to the “Minsk agreements”, in my opinion, the then Ukrainian authorities are also to blame, because they should not have gone for these agreements. There is also the fault of the mediating countries – Germany and France, which for some reason rejected the concept of international law and agreed that one country could annex part of another sovereign country.

This was nonsense, which created the impression in Putin that it would continue like this – he would take Ukraine piece by piece, and everyone would tell him, like, this can't be done, but what are we going to do?

Putin came up with some “Istanbul agreements”/Getty Images

About the film “Russians at war”, which will be shown in Toronto

A scandalous film about “Russians” at war is going to Toronto. They said that they will not remove it from the screening, and they have the right to do so, because there is Canadian money there. That is, this film about “Russians at war” was sponsored, in particular, with Canadian money.

By the way, I would like to listen to our very active diaspora in Canada. They can give us advice on how we should behave, but it would be desirable to explain how this Canadian media center, where there are taxpayers' funds, financed the creation of a completely propagandistic film “Russians at War”.

Listen to what this Trofimova (Anastasia Trofimova, the film's director – Channel 24) says. Listen to her interview. She says frankly, like, “she came; there are good guys there, so warm-hearted; that they don't deserve to be offended at all. There is no genocide there at all. They behave very carefully” and so on.

Listen to what she's saying! It's horrible. We're talking about the emotional perception of war. The Venice Film Festival, they don't even realize what they're doing; they're showing it from the other side. An aggressor, a murderer, comes to kill a child, and they enjoy what they're watching. Like, look, this is a humane aggressor. He will cut off a man's head, but he also tells jokes, he has a wife.

You understand the absurdity of this? This is a complete destruction of the moral and ethical elements of modern civilization. You cannot be tolerant of an aggressor country; you cannot tolerate a murderer. You cannot do this, it distorts the impression. The aggressor came to kill. Of course, he uses a fork when he eats, he can smile while doing so, and when he cuts off a head, he will also smile.

It would be desirable to hear several sides, except Trofimova. We understand the propagandists, they will say allegedly “not all Russians are engaged in genocide, this is Putin's war, he personally is engaged in genocide.” They do everything absolutely “carefully” – “carefully” they strike at the center of Poltava or the center of Lvov.

I left out the fact that even if there is a military facility there, then why the hell are you shooting there at all? But there are no military facilities there. Why are you hitting the center of Lviv? To kill the maximum number of people. “Only” Putin does this. “Only” Putin is fighting, and about a million sanitary losses in this war on the Russian side are all Putin's children, if I understand correctly? Or Putin himself in the reincarnations of millions of personalities? That's how it looks.

I would also like to hear from representatives of the Canadian government. I understand that this is informal. We cannot insist on this, they can do whatever they deem necessary. But it would be desirable to hear: how is that? What are the motives for financing Russian propaganda?

That is, the Russian federal budget, which finances its propaganda, is not enough? We also need to collect some grants? Find donations around the world in order to increase the possibility of Russia's propaganda influence? We just need to understand this.

Finally a film festival: such an outstanding film it was? It was shown so cool? Show cannibals, instead of showing cannibalism as a concept of the “Russian world”. You want to show that cannibals are people who have the right to enter any other country and cut people? I would like to hear something officially here too.

What will winter 2024 – 2025 be like

Winter is coming. Some say that in the optimistic scenario there may be no electricity for 12 hours a day. Pessimistic forecasts – no power for 20 hours a day. Some say that everything depends on the next Russian attacks on the energy sector of Ukraine. We have an understanding of how we will get through this heating season and this winter?

We will get through it hard, just like we got through the last season. But I don't quite understand all this scare mongering about 12 – 20 hours.

There are several important aspects that need to be understood. First of all, everything depends on the number of massive missile strikes. And for this, massive missile defense is needed. The President constantly says at various venues that a significant increase in the number of Patriot systems, SAMP/T systems, NASAMS systems and anti-missiles to them is needed, then the system will work. Also important is:

• physical protection of objects;
• the ability to quickly restore objects thanks to accumulated resources. For example, the same transformers, if we are talking about the distribution of electricity;
• global pressure on Russia to comply with the rules of war.

You understand the absurdity of this? Russia does not even adhere to this. Just the other day, Sergei Shoigu came out and said that Russia struck energy infrastructure, civilian and commercial ships in the Black Sea. He openly says that the Russians knowingly committed crimes against humanity, they were asked not to do this. And they seemed to agree if Ukraine kneels, but Ukraine does not kneel, so they continue to do this.

Therefore, there must be appropriate diplomatic pressure on Russia. There are appropriate tools – Ukraine needs long-range tools so that Russia loses its energy resources and capabilities comparable to ours. I understand that it is traditional for Russia to live without certain basic conditions, but at least so that the main regions also lose the opportunity to have a full-fledged energy infrastructure. These, it seems to me, are effective tools.

Ukraine is engaged in this at various levels. The Energy Headquarters is working, the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is working. The need to supply additional anti-missile systems is being discussed with partners. You know that there are appropriate decisions from a number of countries: Romania and Germany. It would be desirable for the United States to join this.

There is a decision to accumulate the necessary repair tools to quickly restore the energy system. That is, three levels:

• military defense;
• physical defense;
• fast recovery.

The state is doing all this. I advise you not to worry about all the forecasts. We are not ready to make really correct forecasts with you, because it depends on Russia's ability to carry out massive missile strikes.

There is another factor here – sanctions that Russia is bypassing. First of all, the Kalibr and Iskander missiles have 70% of their components from European, Asian and North American countries. It would be desirable if they could not do this and could not stockpile missiles. If this works, then we will have a more or less controlled situation.

“Russia can to lose everything that allows her to dominate”

They say that the ballistic missiles that Iran transferred to Russia are similar in their action to the redesigned S-300. They also said that there are enough S-300 missiles on the territory of the aggressor country, and then suddenly Iranian ballistics. Not enough or Iranian missiles are different?

Not enough. I say this all the time. When you and I read that Russia has a lot of resources, this is not true.

Yes, Russia can put pressure, it has the corresponding amount of resources. But it is gradually sinking into resource scarcity, so they are looking for opportunities to increase the intensity of shelling. In this case, if we are talking about Iranian ballistics, this is 100 – 120 kilometers deep. They want to increase the intensity of the shelling because they don't have enough resources.

If our counter-aviation works well, then they will lose what allows them to dominate today – guided air bombs. They want to compensate for this by being able to use Iranian ballistics in large quantities.

They receive it via the Caspian Sea. There are already official statements from the United States. So far, we cannot confirm the use of Iranian ballistics. Here we must wait for official statements from our military or our intelligence, but the transfer has already been recorded by US intelligence.

The resource shortage is obvious. By the way, I don't understand Iran's motivation – why would it interfere in a war that is not its war? Because it will have extremely negative consequences for it. However, this brings us to another question – it is necessary to significantly increase missile defense systems, including frontline systems.