< img title = "Will the war between Israel and Iran be and what the consequences of" Width = "1280" Height = "720" src = "https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/iran-i-netanyag --1.jpg" class = "attachment-full size-fulll wp-poost-image" Alt = "Trump Netanyag" Loading = "Lazy" Fetchpriority = "High" srcset = "https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/iran-netanyag-1.jpg 1280W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/iran-i-netanyagu-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/iran-i-netanyag-1-768x432.jpg 768W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/iran-i-netanyag-1-632x356.jpg 632W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-cloads/2025/06/12/iran-i-netanyagu-1-200x113.jpg 200W "Sizes =" (Max-Width: 1280PX) 100VW, 1280PX " decoding = "async" />< p > United States are in a state of increased readiness in anticipation of the potential blow of Israel on Iran: the US State Department allowed the evacuation of part of the diplomatic personnel from Iraq, and the Pentagon gave the green light to leave the members of the family families throughout the Middle East.
62 ~ < p > against the background of these statements, the price of oil — at least 4%< p > facts ICTV were versed, whether the war will happen between Israel and Iran and how Donald Trump will respond to this. < h2 > price for oil Brent increased
< p >Brent stamps have risen in price by $ 2.90, or 4.34%, to $ 69.77 per barrel. WTI oil has risen in price by $ 3.17, or 4.88%, to $ 68.15. Both Brent and WTI have reached the highest level since the beginning of April. On Wednesday, June 11, surprised traders bought up oil futures.
< p > — The market did not expect such a great geopolitical risk, ”said Phil Flynn, analyst Price Futures Group.
< p > on Wednesday the UK warned that tension in the Middle East could affect navigation, and therefore the vessels must be careful when passing through the Persian, Oman and Ormuzian straits that border with Iran. < h2 > nuclear agreement of the United States and Iran< p >The evacuation of dippersonal occurs at a rather unstable moment in the region: Donald Trump's efforts to reach a nuclear transaction with Iran seemed to have come to a dead end, and American intelligence officers are more and more concerned that Israel is ready to hit Iran nuclear facilities (in particular Fordo and Natanz, which are key) without the consent of the United States. Such a step will almost certainly break the delicate nuclear negotiations of Washington and Tehran.
< p > Trump is categorical in relation to Iran: they cannot have nuclear weapons. Everything is very simple, they cannot have nuclear weapons.
< p > American president repeatedly threatened to strike at Iran if negotiations on the nuclear program fail. Trump in an interview said that he doubts that Tehran would agree to stop the enrichment of Uranus. The Iranian Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzade assures that Tehran will hit American bases in the region if the United States dare to attack. Iran and the United States planned to hold the sixth round of negotiations in Oman on Sunday between the American negotiator Steve Whitkoff and Foreign Minister Iran Abbas Aragchi, as well as discussions between their technical teams. But sources say that negotiations will probably not take place.
< p > in Iran states that the military threat has always been part of the tactics of the United States negotiations, reports reuters.
< h2 > military presence of the United States in the Middle East
< p > United States have their own military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
< p >< img decoding = "async" Loading = "Lazy" Title = "Will the war between Israel and Iran and what are the consequences of photo 1" class = "alignone size-phull WP-IMAGE-5520812" src = "https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid.png" Alijiki Map "immediately" width = "1080" height = "1080" srcset = "https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid.png 1080w, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-300x300.png 300w, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-432x432.png 432W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-156x156.png 156W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-768x768.png 768W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-96x96.png 96w, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-88x88.png 88w https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-24x24.png 24w, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-16X16.png 16W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-32x32.png 32W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-48x48.png 48W, https://cdn.fakty.com.ua/wp-cloads/2025/06/12/blyzkyj-shid-180x180.png 180W "SIZES =" (MAX-WIDTH: 1080PX) 100VW, 1080PX " />< /p > < h2 > Israel-Iran: war contradicts the interests of Trump< p > according to the director of the Center for Middle Eastern research, Igor Semivolos, as of now, the situation is extremely tense — The probability of war is estimated at 50-60%, with a growth potential up to 80-90% in case of “nuclear” negotiations on June 15 in Oman. Igor Semivolos believes that the war with Iran is not in the interests of Trump.
< p > firstly, quick results cannot be achieved: according to American intelligence estimates, the Israeli blow can delay the Iranian nuclear program for only weeks or months, but will not destroy it. < p >Secondly, there are not enough resources for a full-scale war: the US military budget is limited to new large-scale operations.< p > thirdly, the factor of intermediate elections to the 2026 Congress and internal riots in the United States complicate political support of the war, because the American public is mainly against new conflicts in the Middle East.
62 > < h2 > what is the probability of impacts on the nuclear objects of Iran< p > in the commentary facts ICTV < strong > Alexander Kraev , expert of the Ukrainian external policy advice, noted that Israel has long been ready to strike at Iran nuclear facilities.
62 > 62 > 62 > 62 ~ < blockquote >< p >— For at least three months, the Israelis were ready to do this. They constantly tried to convince Trump’s administration, but he did not agree. Trump literally held back Netanyahu, holding his hand. Therefore, there were no these blows, — Says Alexander Kraev.< p > according to the expert, Israel could hit Iran just at the moment when Iran was weak — When Hamas began only to endure defeats, Tehran lost money, and then direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington had not yet begun.
< p > — Why the Americans do not agree to a blow to Iran ? because, firstly, they missed the right moment. Secondly, it was they who for the last three months restrained their allies from this step. And therefore, now neither tactically nor strategically this step will work as it should have worked, ”expert Alexander Kraev said.
< p >In his opinion, it seems to be the most likely that the Trump administration will wait for the first step from Iran. The Americans do not want to do anything ahead.
< blockquote >< p > — But I have the impression that this “ Palma of the championship ” Israel will not give Iran. The Israelis are much decisive than the Americans … The Americans are so smart, because it will not be the first blow to their territory. I'm not sure that Israel will give Iran the opportunity to deliver this first blow, — Says Alexander Kraev.
< p > According to the expert, the United States is afraid that Israel will hit Iran without the permission of the United States, which is why the last three months Washington and Tel Aviv were constantly in contact, did not give Netanyu and his office to work actively.
< p >The United States imposed sanctions on international courts, covered Israel in international format, continued to supply it with weapons, but at the same time too obviously tried to restrain Israel from decisive steps. < p > < blockquote >< p > — Either from the lack of a plan, or from the lack of an understanding of what is happening, or from the lack of political courage, I don’t know, the Americans obviously did not want to do anything sharply in the Middle East, — explains Alexander Kraev.
< p > in his opinion, there are situations when it is better to take one risky step, but to control the situation than the Trump administration did, to wait a long time, to restrain everyone, and then evacuate diplomatic personnel.
< h2 > conflict between Israel and Iran: the reaction of Americans
< p >According to Alexander Kraev, if there is a conflict between Israel and Iran and it will be large -scale, then the response of the Americans will be similar to the one that was during the last mass shelling of Israel — The Americans helped bring down goals, helped to protect Israel.
< p > then the United States brought the aircraft carrier groups, but this was a demonstration that America did not cross the line. < p > < blockquote >< p > — Aviation group — This is a housing of 50 thousand people, armed with nuclear weapons, the latest intelligence system, which are able to strike deep into the continent by almost a thousand kilometers. In fact, this is a death sentence to Iran if he is surrounded by two aircraft carriers, – the expert explains.
< p > how it was then ? one aircraft carrier group stood in the Red Sea, the other — In the Mediterranean. And the third was ready to approach the Persian Gulf.
< p >— It would be a normal response of the Americans. This would not be the beginning of the war, but a very clear signal that we restrained your first offensive, and then, well, you understand what the consequences will be. That is, the next wrong step of Iran, and its end begins, says Alexander Kraev.
< h2 > war of Israel-Iran: how will Trump react
< p > according to the political expert, candidate of political sciences, associate professor of the University named after T. Shevchenko < Strong > Igor Reiterovich , American President Donald Trump is too self -confident, considers himself a strong diplomat who can solve any issue, agree on everything. But while his diplomacy gave nothing. Therefore, with a high probability, a certain military conflict — The war between Iran and Israel may arise.
< blockquote >< p >— It may sound too cynical, but for the interests of Ukraine, the blow of Israel on the nuclear objects of Iran would bring two good results, says Igor Reiterovich. 62 > < p > firstly, this is a blow to the ally of Russia. And no matter how the Iranians call themselves humanists, this country cannot be allowed to create nuclear weapons, because just Iran can unleash a nuclear war in the region. secondly, the Israeli blow to Iran would be a colossal slap in the face of Trump, says a political scientist. < p > — Israel would show Trump that his diplomatic peacekeeping efforts are worth nothing, do not work. And Israel protects its national interests. And here Trump would not say that this is his war, and Biden's war. Now, if Trump had received such a slap in the face, something has changed in his head, and he would begin to save his image, including due to the real end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, ”said Igor Reiterovich. ~ 60 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 > 62 < p > it is clear that Trump would like to avoid his participation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, but if he occurs, this will be with a natural consequence of the absolute helplessness of the United States during the time of President Trump.
62 ~ < p > if Iran launches missiles according to Israel, then America will simply be obliged to help them back, as it did before. < p > < p > — In any case, Trump will be forced to a certain extent to intervene in this war, even if he does not want it, – says a political expert.< p > all this, according to him, is a consequence of the helplessness of Donald Trump as a diplomat, and his inability to agree with Israel on a joint policy of counteraction to Iran. ~ 60 >
< p > < h3 > related topics:
Iranbignamin Netanyuvova in Israistunald Trumpacern Zbroya
