Will the United States continue to help Ukraine: a frank interview with Mikhail Podolyak

Interview with Mikhail Podolyak/Collage 24 Channel

The US Senate on December 6 could not reach agreement on a joint aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. This is due to the internal political debate between Republicans and Democrats. However, both parties understand the need to support our state.

In addition, the Joe Biden administration constantly makes concrete arguments and explains the consequences if the decision is not will be accepted. Mikhail Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, spoke in more detail about the failure of the vote in the US Senate and whether the solution we need will be available in in an exclusive interview with Channel 24.

Why Putin flew to the UAE

We periodically hear that Russia is isolated, no one wants to see it, it is not a player in the international market. Only a few representatives remain with her, such as Viktor Orban or Kim Jong-un. However, we see a show in Abu Dhabi, which was organized during the visit of Vladimir Putin. Do you have an explanation that this happened at all?

Of course, there is an explanation. Let's live without illusions and take everything calmly. Every country has its own national interests. We can even make an analogy. You and I have a war that is absolutely massive, and who is blocking our borders today? Our Polish friends, who obviously also understand that if Ukraine does not survive, then they will have huge problems.

Everyone who is blocking the borders today may find themselves in a state of war, so sitting in the trenches is a fairly realistic scenario. But they continue to block based on absolutely understandable business reasons. Therefore, the further a country is from the epicenter of the war, the less it thinks about assessing the problems that this war generates.

However, there is a pro-Ukrainian coalition, that is, democratic countries that we absolutely love sincerely support. They understand what is happening in the world today – Russia is not just destroying the territory of Ukraine, but is breaking the global world order, global rules, and they are absolutely not interested in this.

Full interview with Mikhail Podolyak: watch the video

However, there is a huge number countries that belong to the so-called neutral camp. They believe that the war does not change anything for them and they can continue this or that relationship. They build them based on their interest in political, economic, and business needs. I would give itWe have the following recommendations:

• to work at all sites, explaining what Russia is doing today. It is difficult, but we must continue to do it;
• no need to be offended by other countries. This applies not only to the United Arab Emirates, but also to any other country. We see how many countries from the so-called Global South behave, so we must understand that they have their own interests that will be in the foreground;

< p>Russia is really losing its global status, they don’t want to talk to it. Russia today looks reputationally different than it did before the full-scale invasion and will have significantly less influence on the global political process. China will compensate for this.

Today there are two superpowers – the USA and China, which are gradually beginning to discuss among themselves what the political framework will be like after the war in Eastern Europe, or after other escalations that we see around the world;

Regarding Orbán’s statements. Yes, he makes certain anti-Ukrainian statements, but he still resolves the issue of his relations with Brussels. That is, their own issues within the European Union. He wants to receive certain preferences and solves this through speculative statements and behavior regarding Ukraine.

Victor Orban and Vladimir Putin/Getty Images

But again, this is his position from the point of view of national interest. This has been discussed many times. Therefore, we should not behave aggressively, not be offended, but think through a strategy for further behavior, mobilize our partners.

If, for example, we are talking about the Arab world, Ukraine is working quite actively there in recent years. We must explain that from the point of view of the situation, it is possible to agree on something with Russia, to obtain certain financial opportunities, in particular anti-sanctions, raw materials. We understand that these are regions of oil and gas.

But from the point of view of the medium or long term, any communications with Russia are unprofitable, because which will lead to the breakdown of agreements, rules and the ability to work in a particular market, and so on.

We must explain this, say that situationally Russia can offer something, especially speculatively, because it is in an extremely difficult situation. By the way, we see changes in the behavior of the People's Republic of China. It continues its relationship with Russia, but it looks a little different than it did even a year ago.

So don't demand that countries behave the way Ukraine behaves. Unfortunately, this is basically our big problem. It is very good that we have super partners such as Germany, the USA, the UK, especially the countries of Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries.

We know that more than 50 countries belong to the pro-Ukrainian coalition. They will continue to help us, they are discussing this, despite internal political discussions. We need to work with everything else, come to these countries, in particular to the Arab world, and explain our positions.

It seems that Putin is so actively flying around the world before reassigning himself to the role of President of Russia. Before the elections, he shows himself that Russia has not been forgotten in the world, they are ready to invite it to the table, and Putin himself is in international politics.

He doesn’t show it to himself. He cannot show himself anything, because he is not a realistic, adequate person. This is shown not even by him, but by the Politburo, which is located next to him, for the elites who were, to put it mildly, frightened by the duration of the war. The elite is not only Putin’s inner circle, but something much more.

For example, business elite, economic, administrative, managerial, security elite. They all sincerely believed that they would quickly get there, cope with Ukraine, and for them it would not have fatal consequences, as it does today: reputational, business, financial, credit, and so on.

< p dir="ltr" class="additional-image"> Putin in Abu Dhabi/Screenshot from video

By the way, after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow, this elite was absolutely shocked and did not know what to do. She has lost faith in Putin as an arbiter who can administer, moderate domestic or foreign markets and defend their interests. They saw that Putin was despised. Remember how he looked a year ago at the SCO summit? Everyone bypassed him, did not conduct any negotiations, did not speak.

There are many other nuances, considering how he looks Russia, for example, in the Asian republics of the former Soviet Union and so on. All this has accumulated in order to restore the belief among the Russian elites that Putin is a global player, can communicate at a high level, meetings will be held with him, and so on – they are doing all this today. They want to return Putin to the status of a much larger person than any other representative of the Russian elite community. And that's all, no more.

Why is it dangerous? Today Russia sees that we have stagnation along the line of war. When I say “Russia,” I’m not talking about the ordinary Russian, they don’t see anything there, but about representatives of one or another elite community. They see that there is stagnation along the front line, that is, Russia is losing without a landslide. The troops stopped where they built their defensive echelons, redoubts and are there.

In addition, they see that Russia is calmly circumventing sanctions. Together with countries such as North Korea or Iran, it produces more weapons that are adapted to today's type of warfare. Thus, it continues certain offensive operations. That is, they believe that Russia has potential.

They also see that there is a certain internal discussion in partner countries, in democracies regarding support for Ukraine, that is, in what volume, how long it should be done, and so on. But they perceive this as confusion of the Western elites and add even more pressure, publications, information, diplomatic work.

It is these elites that should be influenced by such visits of Putin or Sergei Lavrov to North Macedonia. They must show that Russia is gradually returning to the global table. This is a rather primitive technology, but they use it.

These elites see that Ukraine, unfortunately, has returned to a strange internal political process as we begin to find out relations among ourselves, we do not pay attention to what Russia is, to its information programs.

Accordingly, now they have straightened their chests, they say that “we’ll push it a little more,” and Putin’s visits should show that he is returning to the big game. It makes no difference at what level, but he returns because people communicate with him, so it is dangerous from the information and propaganda side.

But will Putin be the same player as before the full-scale invasion, will other major players, national elites perceive it this way? No, they will not perceive it this way.

The United States failed the vote to help Ukraine: what will be the consequences

The US Senate blocked a bill to finance Ukraine and Israel for $106 billion. Republicans are demanding stricter immigration policies and controls on the US border with Mexico. Are the Republicans hiding behind tough immigration policies and the border with Mexico, so as not to provide aid?

No. Absolutely, Republicans and Democrats – both parties – clearly understand what is meant when we talk about Ukraine or Israel. In the Middle East, they talk about the possibility of protecting themselves from the outbreak of a big war, the dominance of repressive, terrorist regimes such as Iran, Hezbollah or Hamas.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, this is generally significant a big problem, because we are talking about the global leadership of democratic countries and democracies in general or the United States specifically. In a big war you either win or you lose. If you don’t help Ukraine today, then you’re definitely saying that we couldn’t win the war against Russia, one authoritarian country.

Then there are no global rules, then there will be dominance of expansion, blackmail, and certain conflicts. That is, Russia will behave much more brazenly than it does today. If we understand this, then the United States of America also understands this very well.

Unfortunately, modern politics is very tense due to the widespread use of social networks and the information component – Very heated internal discussions continue. Indeed, there is a discussion about more stringent restrictions on the immigration policy of the United States in the United States.

The US Senate failed the decision to help Ukraine/Getty Images

We should fix the following key points:

• there is a consensus among both Republicans and Democrats to support Ukraine, Israel and countries of the Indo-Pacific region;
• there is an effective understanding of what war is and how to continue supporting Ukraine. This is demonstrated by the Joe Biden administration. They constantly talk about this with specific arguments, clearly explain the consequences of what will happen if the assistance is not continued;
• We must not forget that a large-scale Ukrainian delegation is actively working in the USA consisting of the speaker of parliament, the head of the OP, the minister of defense, and a large number of deputies. They primarily work behind the scenes.

There is a voluntary lobby, which consists of a large number of congressmen, regardless of their party affiliation, that is, both Republicans and Democrats, who, together with our representatives, actively work in different groups, at different venues, and hold endless meetings.

Not all of these meetings are publicly discussed, but the understanding of support for Ukraine is absolute. There is an understanding that if Russia does not lose, it will completely break international law; it simply will not physically exist. Taking this into account, there is an absolute understanding that if you do not invest in Ukraine today, then tomorrow you will invest much more money in your security. And it’s not a fact that you can keep all this under control.

Will the USA support Ukraine in the future

US President Joe Biden, in a speech to congressmen, noted that this assistance is necessary for Ukraine, which is resisting and preventing Russia from dominating the world. When I listened to the President of the United States, I had the feeling that the President of Ukraine was speaking. Because those theses that are usually heard in Ukraine sounded from the mouth of the President of the United States.

Constant Communication at the presidential level between Ukraine and the United States has remained sufficient throughout these two years. Let's not forget this.

It is absolutely normal when fixation on the topic of Ukraine comes through the President of the United States. Because it has a certain relevance to the domestic political debate of the United States. It's good that we're being careful about this. We understand the cost of all issues, but we see absolute support from Mr. Biden’s administration; we see absolute support from both Republicans and Democrats.

We must be calmer about the fact that within the framework of democracy, they have the right to any other discussions and debates. And even if it’s all tied to each other. We understand that the United States will definitely help Ukraine. Just as today we see a gradual increase in assistance from European countries.

Of course, there are statements from individual countries, such as Hungary. But we see that the national governments of Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands and others continue to actively increase assistance to Ukraine.

Yes, there are unresolved issues. This is, for example, the European Defense Agency. It could speed up the production of 155-caliber shells because they are in short supply. But this is a question of logistics, a question of the speed of making anti-bureaucratic decisions to establish this or that procedure.

I understand that there is a certain concern about what is happening, whether they will support Ukraine. Ukraine will definitely be supported. You and I are seeing not just some small local war. We see with you an absolutely fatal war for the world agenda.

Russia is committing massive war crimes, massive genocidal crimes against the civilian population. Russia will continue to behave this way. If she is not punished, it will mean that, in principle, only violence will dominate the world.

American aid package – $61 billion. This is a paltry amount considering the overall national budget of the United States. And we are even talking about the military budget. Two-thirds or even 85 – 90% of the funds remain in circulation in the United States economy. There are all the benefits here, but there is one nuance.

Conventionally, not only about the USA. If you do not invest 60 billion dollars in Ukraine today, especially against the backdrop of what we see in the behavior of Russia or other countries that today are ready to sincerely support it from an ideological point of view, and not just meet within the framework of their speculative interests, then in 3 – 5 years you will be spending at least 600 billion a year, not taking into account the necessary funds that are spent annually on your national army.

People who are not at the epicenter of any conflict always perceive it through the prism of their other interests. And gradually the scale of interest changes. Today the Middle East, for example, may be unstable, and tomorrow Venezuela and Guyana.

But we must explain that the primary source of all modern instability is Russia, which directly or indirectly contributes to this invests. In addition to the fact that it itself is waging war, Russia is interested in a number of conflicts in different territories.

Do I understand correctly ? It’s not a question of whether they will accept, but a question of when?

The question is, will they accept or, in my opinion, it’s not worth it at all. Because it is an investment in your safety. And every single one of our partners understands this. Question – when? Yes, for us the sooner the better. This is understandable, because they must plan their further actions, making adjustments to tactics and strategy; must understand what technological tools we will have for the next stages of the war.

Joe Biden at a briefing regarding Ukraine/Screenshot from video

We are now in the winter period. We need to increase the capabilities of our air defense systems. Considering that Russia is accumulating; what is he doing; how he uses drones.

Russia does not stop mobilizing. There is a much greater mobilization resource there than in Ukraine. In order to compensate for these inability to fight symmetrically, we need to find technological solutions. But it's a lot of money. For example, in order to significantly increase the production of drones, it is necessary to make investments together with partners, because this needs to be accelerated as much as possible.

For example, long-range missiles. Russia was able to accumulate so many cruise missiles that the world does not produce so many. Therefore, today we need to invest more and get the opportunity to use these missiles in a much larger volume.

Russia, together with Iran, is investing not only in Shaheds. There are much more dangerous tools: “Orlans”, “Lancets”, which work in a single complex and quite clearly moderate attacks on our guys. To counteract this, we need radio-electronic control systems on the territory of Ukraine. And these are all investments and technologies. Ukraine itself has much fewer resources than Russia. This is not some kind of secret.

Russia today absolutely clearly tells the whole world that it spent about 40% of its budget this year on war. Next year they will spend 120 billion. There are indirect costs, agreements with North Korea for a million shells.

This all needs to be compensated somehow. And this can be done within the framework of a coalition in which all members clearly understand why they are here. But there are issues that have not yet been resolved:

• we must clearly state what the ending will be in this war;
• based on the end of the war, state what exactly needs to be done from a production point of view;
• significantly reduce the influence of bureaucracy in order to speed up logistics issues and financing issues.

Can Russia attack a NATO country

Joe Biden said another thesis the day before. He stated that in 1 to 3 years, if Ukraine is not supported and the necessary weapons are not given, NATO countries will have to face the Russian army. To what extent do NATO countries really understand the real threat? And this is not rhetorical talk. They clearly understand, analyze and have changed the way they approach analytics. They look at Russia differently.