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In the draft budget for 2023, the government set the average annual dollar exchange rate at 42 hryvnia. It is predicted that at the end of the same year the official exchange rate of the dollar may reach 50 hryvnia.
It is not known for certain what this figure will be, because it depends on the war. We cannot predict this. Investment banker Sergey Fursa said this to Channel 24.
We pay too much attention to the course that is budgeted. For the last 3-4 years, something has been constantly put into the budget. Everyone says: Look! What's in the budget. Then it never coincides with reality. And it should not coincide, because this is a forecast, and the forecast may be inaccurate, an accurate forecast is generally luck, he believes.
According to Fursa, this is just a mathematical parameter that is included in the budget in order to reduce debit with credit. “The budget is generally in hryvnias, but there are expenses and incomes in dollars, they somehow need to be taken into account in hryvnia equivalent,” the banker explains.
Theoretically, he believes, the official dollar exchange rate (the one that is now 36 ,6) at the end of next year there may be 50 hryvnia.
“But I don’t know if it will be like that. The end of next year is 14 months. It’s been 7 months since the beginning of the war. You saw how much has changed. We are now talking about December 2023 – it’s generally like the infinity of the Universe now for us,” Fursa stressed.
The investment banker assures that anything can happen. Yes, this forecast is logical, but the probability that it will be so is very low.
What will be with fuel prices
The cost of fuel, Fursa notes, directly depends on the cost of oil on the world market. Recently, we have been observing a drop in oil prices.
“This is a complex of global reasons. Two or three weeks ago, oil cost $105, yesterday it was $88. This is also reflected in the prices at Ukrainian gas stations. Ukrainians do not notice , but over the past few months, prices have really come down there,” he said.
Soon, additional taxes and excise duties on burnt should be introduced, so the price will rise slightly. But, if oil falls, the price may be lower as a result
“Now everything depends on the dynamics of prices on world oil markets,” Fursa summed up.
The exchange rate at 50 hryvnia: what is known
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Around how realistic the forecast is and whether the official rate will rise, there are many disputes.
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Anna Zolotko, Director of the Treasury Operations Department of Unex Bank, notes that these values u200bu200bare not to be treated as guaranteed indicators. After all, this is only part of the budgeting process. When preparing the country's budget, the government annually uses forecast indicators prepared in advance by the Ministry of Economy. Of course, the Ministry of Economy also relies on calculations, estimates and hypotheses.
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According to economist and specialist of the Economic Expert Platform Oleg Hetman, the exchange rate at the level of 42 hryvnia is even somewhat overstated. And he adds that such an exchange rate looks like a reasonable corridor, which will fluctuate between 39 and 45 hryvnia.
