While Russia is destroying its troops, unsuccessfully storming Bakhmut, Vugledar and other cities, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for a counteroffensive. Given the availability of forces and means, the best option for a counteroffensive would be to force the Dnieper in the area of Novaya Kakhovka.
This opinion was expressed in the stream of Channel 24 by Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military expert Roman Svitan. Thus, Ukrainian troops could even reach Armyansk in the north of Crimea.
The optimal direction of the counteroffensive
According to the interlocutor, such a direction of the strike will solve a lot of problems associated with the shelling of Kherson. At the same time, the entire western triangle of Russian troops up to the Kinburn Spit will be surrounded.
This is not even an operational environment, but a real bag. Here they can be very easily destroyed. And it will be necessary to hold the front line only 70 kilometers away, – says the colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He also stressed that there were talks about this direction at the end of 2022. When in November it was possible to plan the entrance to the Crimea.
“Then there were not enough forces and means, and also the weather. There was no winter, that is, there was no frost, and because of the autumn slush there was no point in advancing, because the troops would get stuck,” explains Roman Svitan.
The interlocutor also commented that during the breakthrough, Ukrainian troops from both sides could be under pressure from the Russians. He believes that such pressure is possible only from the east, and there will be nothing to press from the west.
When the “cutting” begins, the operational encirclement of this grouping will take place. You just need to make them run away. They will have nothing to work with,” the military expert assures.
They say that in a few days the Russian troops will use all their reserves in a few days. Therefore, it will be just a few thousand people without ammunition. Therefore, the specialist is sure that they will run ahead of the APU, realizing that they can get into the boiler.
Roman Svitan about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: watch the video
Second potential direction
Also, the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve considers the strike from Orekhov and Gulyaipol to be the best direction for the strike of Ukrainian troops. However, not in the direction of Melitopol, but between it and Berdyansk.
Since Melitopol is a good garrison. They have already prepared him for defense. And Berdyansk was prepared. And between Berdyansk and Melitopol, and by the way, between Berdyansk and Mariupol, the same direction, – said Roman Svitan.
According to him, if on the offensive between Berdyansk and Melitopol one should leave Gulyaipol, then in the direction between Berdyansk and Mariupol one can leave from under Ugledar.
“That is, we will cut off the eastern direction, and then we will start pushing the Russians to the west. This is the best option, because their supply routes will be cut,” the military expert explained.
How long will the counter-offensive operation take
Commenting on the question of how long the counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take, the interlocutor noted that one should not rely on the Kharkov operation. Like, the Russians in Izyum were not at all ready for our offensive and had only one line of defensive fortifications.
We crossed it very quickly, and the entire Izyum cauldron was practically empty. They were ready to retreat, and they did it – they retreated immediately behind the Oskol reservoir, – explains the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve.
At the same time, the situation with the right bank of the Kherson region is quite different. There, the Armed Forces of Ukraine “grind” the Russian troops for several months in a row, until they were “tired” of it. They fled to the left bank, realizing that they could not move further.
“Movement to the Azov coast or towards Armyansk is planned by the Russians. They understand that we will start moving, and this is a clear direction, clear strategic actions. They are preparing for this,” says Roman Svitan.
Consequently, he is convinced that it takes about a month to get to Armyansk. After that, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin to dig in those territories, and then again prepare forces and means for the next movement.
More about the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
- Roman Konon, a lieutenant of the Svoboda battalion of the National Guard, said that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian forces will begin when the weather is drier. He is convinced that our offensive will begin from Bakhmut.
- At the same time, the New York Times said that the Russians were close to Bakhmut's entourage. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction have already launched a counteroffensive.
