Will Biden have the courage to untie Kyiv's hands and what to expect from Trump

Will Biden have the courage to untie Kyiv's hands and what to expect from Trump Oksana Kharkovska

How the US elections will affect Ukraine/Collage by Channel 24

There are just over 3 months left until the US presidential elections. Joe Biden has dropped out of the election race and now has no restrictions that would affect his rating. The current US President wants to end his term with dignity.

And does this mean that Biden will have the courage to untie Kyiv's hands and lift restrictions on strikes deep into Russia? Experts have figured it out especially for 24 Kanal. Read more about what the end of the current US President's term will be like and what to expect if Donald Trump wins the election.

What will be the end of Biden's presidency

Political scientist and partner of the Good Politics communications agency Maxim Dzhigun expressed the opinion that Biden is unlikely to act more actively in the context of supporting Ukraine before the end of his presidential term. Even understanding that his hands are already untied and there are no restrictions that would affect his rating.

According to him, all statements by the head of the White House about further support for Ukraine are rather a desire to demonstrate the strength of the United States and the leading role of the country in resolving such confrontations.

Biden is unlikely to resort to any radical steps. Moreover, he transferred part of his powers in the context of bills relating to support for Ukraine to the Ministry of Finance and other government institutions. Obviously, now Biden wants to create the impression of a president who will go down in history as the one who fought in extremely difficult conditions and, due to many factors, could not do what he wanted,” Dzhigun emphasized.

< p>Despite all this, according to the political scientist, the current president wants to adequately complete his political mission, which was indeed difficult and unpredictable.

The political scientist also shares a similar opinion Igor Reiterovich. He noted that Ukraine will certainly remain an important topic until the elections in the United States, but not a priority. Thus, during the pre-election period, politicians will be more focused on US domestic issues.

“All Biden can do now is to enable Ukraine to receive the necessary assistance, launch additional programs, issue assistance packages faster, and continue working to maintain bipartisan and bicameral support for initiatives concerning Ukraine,” the political scientist emphasized.

At the same time, Renew Democracy Initiative Executive Director Uriel Epstein is convinced that the White House will provide Ukraine with more weapons in the near future. The fact is that the current president's administration understands that despite the fact that Kamala Harris is in a better situation than Biden, Trump is still winning today.

They understand that if Trump becomes president, aid to Ukraine is absolutely not guaranteed. Will this change everything 180 degrees? I don't think so. The Biden administration won't immediately send F-16s tomorrow, but we will probably see that they will untie Ukraine's hands more and allow it to hit Russia more. Perhaps they will give more weapons, – Epstein noted.

In his opinion, during these 6 months that Biden will remain in the White House, the United States should provide Ukraine with absolutely all of the more than 60 billion that the US Congress has allocated to help our country.

Will Biden dare to give permission to strike deep into Russia

Joe Biden's strategy is to not make things worse in any situation – not to complicate it. As political scientist Igor Reiterovich explained, such a strategy of the American leader should not be perceived as indecisiveness.

It's not that Biden is indecisive, he just chose this strategy. Perhaps there will be some concessions for Ukraine in the direction of the possibility of striking Russia, but this is unlikely, – Reiterovich emphasized.

Public and political figure from the United States, deputy from Rock County in Wisconsin Yuri Rashkin believes that President Biden does not want to make the same mistake as Barack Obama, who thought that Americans would elect Hillary Clinton as president, not Trump. Therefore, the current head of the United States does not want to miss the opportunity, time and chance, in particular if Kamala Harris fails to win the election.

“I think Joe Biden will be active until the end of his term. He is “cementing” how history will look at him, learning from the mistakes of his predecessors and drawing conclusions. But as he said, “there is no need to bomb the Kremlin and Moscow,” so I see this as Biden's “red line,” like, you can't hit Moscow,” the American deputy said.

Epstein and Rashkin on Biden's actions until the end of his term: watch the video

What will happen with help if Trump becomes president

On the eve of the US elections, presidential candidate Donald Trump made many loud statements, in particular promising to allegedly end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. However, political scientist and partner of the Good Politics communications agency Maxim Dzhigunexplained that the election rhetoric differs significantly from the actions of the president, who sees intelligence data and a possible threat to the United States in the event of Russia's victory.

You can talk a lot now to consolidate resources and mobilize your voters, but when you come to the White House, I think that Trump's position will differ from the current one, the political scientist noted.

In his opinion, a person who is responsible for the fate of at least 330 million inhabitants of planet Earth cannot resort to steps that threaten their safety.

At the same time, it is important for Ukraine to ensure that, in Trump's understanding, Ukraine's victory is beneficial to him. The political scientist is convinced that this is quite possible to do, but original approaches must be found for such a difficult politician as Trump.

But the head of the Center for Public Analysis “Vezha” Valery Klochokconsiders former US President Trump an inconsistent politician, because he often says things that contradict each other. So, Trump is about the internal American issue, and not systemic geopolitics.

Earlier, he said that Europe built its security at the expense of the United States, and that everyone should pay. Klochok suggested that it is the issue of money that could become the US “red line” if Trump enters the White House.

There is only one “red line” that can be drawn for Trump's policy in general – the US will not do everything for free, the US will proceed from the position – resolve your issues yourselves, we will not interfere. This is really threatening, – said the head of the Center for Public Analysis “Vezha”.

If Trump wins the election, most likely, according to Klochok, he will try to force Ukraine to give up its territories or give in to Russian ambitions.

Klochok suggested what could become Trump's “red line”: watch the video

The issue of allocating funds was also noted by economist, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin. He explained that when the US Parliament votes to allocate funds to Ukraine, it is talking about granting the president the authority to manage the budget in this direction. Then Joe Biden comes out and announces aid packages.

That's the real danger – the president was given powers, but if he or the vice president don't want to do it, Ukraine won't get the money. After all, everything the Senate votes on is just powers, not a direct transfer of funds.

In such a situation, everything that happens to the Americans is extremely sensitive for us, the economist concluded.

In communicating with Trump, intermediaries who are trusted by both sides and who are aware of what is happening in our country can play an important role. Under such conditions, it is easier to build a dialogue and this model can bring success to our country.

The chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Us noted that they could be Boris Johnson, Kurt Volker, Argentine President Javier Miley and even Trump's daughter Ivanka, who has supported Ukraine on her social networks since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.

“It is important that the agreement on Ukraine's security with the United States works, so that Trump, if he becomes president, puts people who are knowledgeable about this issue in charge of work on the Ukrainian vector. The greater the role of Boris Johnson and Kurt Volker, the better it will be for Ukraine in terms of relations with Trump,” Us emphasized.

Is Trump really Putin's friend

In 2016, Russia already had high hopes for Trump's coming to power, but in practice, everything turned out to be completely different. As political scientist Vladimir Fesenko noted, relations between the states have only worsened under Trump's tenure.

So, the former US President wanted to come to an agreement with Putin, but the Russian dictator did not make concessions. That is why Trump made a number of gestures against Russia in order to put pressure on it. For example, providing Ukraine with Javelin or sanctions against Nord Stream.

It was a gesture to Putin – if you don't want to come to an agreement, I will help Ukraine. Not everything is so simple with Trump. In Russia, they definitely hope that it will be easier for them with Trump, that he will come to an agreement with them. I think the reality may be different, – Fesenko noted.

Former KGB officer Sergey Zhirnov said that formally in Russia they consider Trump's candidacy more advantageous, since they assume that he is going to reduce aid to Ukraine. However, no one knows what US policy will be if Trump becomes president.

“In fact, it is difficult to understand Trump, so his candidacy may be even worse for Russia,” Zhirnov emphasized.

In addition, political scientist Taras Zagorodniy believes that if Trump becomes the head of the US, he may lift all restrictions on the American oil and gas sector imposed by Joe Biden, which is why the United States actually supports the purchase of oil and gas in Russia and Iran.

This will lead to the Russians having problems with its sales. Trump will also “tear” the Chinese economy, and, as a result, the financial base of Russia and China will decrease.

“I think that nothing will change significantly in relations between the US and Ukraine, in particular regarding military aid. However, the economic base of Russia and China, which allows them to wage war, will be undermined,” the political scientist suggested.

According to him, Russia is very worried about a possible Trump presidency, because his policies may include actions that they will not like at all.