An attempt at a new large-scale offensive by Muscovy will be in the first half of 2023. You don't need to be a Bloomberg publication citing certain sources in Muscovy for this.
The Kremlin is not able to soberly assess its capabilities
Before a new offensive attempt, the top military-political leadership of Muscovy is pushing a number of things.
Strategically, the problem is that the leadership of our enemy has not yet learned to soberly assess its own forces, knowing the appropriate limitations, and set the task in proportion to the potential and ability to conduct hostilities.
If the situation were the opposite, then the Muscovites would have to move on to strategic defense. They should seek to deplete Ukrainian forces that would have tried to reach at least the brink on February 24, 2022. But the leadership of our enemy cannot objectively assess the situation.
In addition, local successes around Bakhmut could convince the military-political leadership of Muscovy that they had found a new tactic. Like, it will allow solving problems at the highest levels of the war with a more massive application. However, such a statement also raises questions.
How new weapons from the West stimulate Russia to attack
In addition to strategic and tactical isolation from reality, the leadership of Muscovy is pushing for active action by several other things.
The first is the promised deliveries of heavy weapons from the West. The fact that new armored vehicles and artillery will begin to arrive in the second quarter of 2023 forces the Kremlin to act in advance. In particular, until Ukraine has mastered the appropriate technique.
The second is that the recent steps of the United States and its allies show a willingness to play the long game. First of all, this concerns the production of weapons and ammunition.
If back in December 2022 it was said that the production of 155 caliber ammunition in the United States would increase to the level of 40 thousand per month in 2025, now they are already talking about an indicator of 90 thousand per month in 2025. The same goes for other things – M142 and BK, air-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, etc. That is, strategic time begins to play against Muscovy in the military dimension of the confrontation.
All this in combination pushes Muscovy to take decisive action, while some window of opportunity is still open.
