Who can become Putin's successor: 3 likely candidates named/Getty Images =””> Putin's inner circle and the elite in a broad sense are extremely dissatisfied with what is happening and, especially, with where the country is moving. Of course, the elites would be happy if Putin could be replaced, at once, with someone.
Almost anyone would be better than what is happening now. The problem is that it is impossible to make the replacement smoothly in a personalistic authoritarian regime.
The overthrow of Putin
It is this impossibility that keeps Putin in power – if he is overthrown, there will be uncertainty, a risk for all groups that now live in relative peace with each other. In the end, Hitler had exactly the same story – all the other leaders of the Reich would be glad to get rid of him, but everyone was afraid of defeat in the struggle for power after the fall of the Fuhrer.
It seems to me that Putin will follow directly” collective leadership. As in 1953, Stalin was still technically alive, and they had already divided their positions so that no one could dominate the others. It took arrests, executions, coups, and only then, four years later, Khrushchev appeared as the sole leader.
In the same way, after the overthrow of Khrushchev, power was divided among several leaders, and only 10-12 years later, by the second half of the 1970s, Brezhnev consolidated power, becoming the sole leader.
< img class="aligncenter" src="/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/kto-mozhet-stat-preemnikom-putina-nazvany-3-verojatnyh-kandidata-61fd57d.jpg" alt="Who can become Putin's successor : 3 likely candidates named" />
According to Sonin, there may be a collective leadership in Russia/Photo by Getty Images
The forecast is a collective leadership, but who could be the sole leader?
- Medvedev.
Medvedev, of course, is inspired by the example of Balaguer . There was such an administrator, an inconspicuous second person under Trujillo, Dominican Putin. He was always on the sidelines, and then Trujillo was killed, the military and special services cut each other, and Balaguer led the country for thirty years.
Medvedev's main problem is that he has neither the skills nor the abilities of either an administrative leader or a political one. There was no such area of responsibility for him to cope, there was no such supporter that Medvevdev would not give him up. Due to many years of flirting with emigration, now you have to be a “superhawk”, but it looks ridiculous.
It would seem that the “Westernizer's reputation” is a plus, but this is just not a plus: the West will talk to anyone who will conclude a truce and begin to withdraw troops, and will not be with anyone who does not.
- Kiriyenko.
The main advantage of Sergei Kiriyenko is that he really has some backlog in relations with all groups and groups. He is nobody, but he can talk to everyone. On the other hand, this is where all the pluses end. The arrival in Mariupol is a clear demonstration of interest in becoming a successor.
- Sobyanin.
Sobyanin's main advantage is, with on the one hand, non-involvement, in comparison with the rest of Putin's entourage, by February 24 and loyalty to the status quo. This is important, since it is possible that an important element of future negotiations on the lifting of sanctions will be the extradition of criminals to some international tribunals. Plus, a ready-made administrative team.
Sobyanin's main problems are that he is not much younger than Putin, that is, he does not solve the problem of generational change and is not as charismatic as possible. However, this is precisely what may make him an acceptable transitional figure or part of the “collective leadership”.
