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The Russians lost 100,000 dead and 3,000 tanks. How are they going to continue to fight?
The tactics of the 43rd year
The invaders have already crossed the first line in terms of losses in manpower. Already faced with a shortage of air-conditioned shells. And they are facing a disappointing prospect for themselves – they will not be able to equip 200 thousand of their new “chmobiks” with a sufficient amount of equipment and weapons. Not to mention Shoigu's gigantic plans to create new military districts and airborne divisions.
How, with all this, are the Russians going to continue to fight against Ukraine? And about the same as the battles near Bakhmut are now being fought. And about the same as the Soviet army fought against the Wehrmacht in 1943.
For example, in the same 1943, it was quite standard for the Kremlin to assign one of the armies the title of “Guards” and quickly cram it there ” marching replenishment” (what is translated from the language of that time means “chmobiks”).
If there are not enough shells, it means to steal the maximum possible number of artillery barrels to one of the sectors of the front, to shoot off the entire daily limit of shells in a short time and thus simulate a “barrage of fire” as a necessary condition for an infantry offensive. Which then will wait for another day when their artillery will again be able to fire on newly identified targets.
The maxim “women are still giving birth” in practical terms looked like this – for example, a rifle corps storms enemy positions without much success for a month and storms without proper artillery support. After all, the “chmobiks” of the 1943 model have the task of “expanding the breakthrough” with their bodies to bring the tank corps into battle. And what are tankers doing this month? That's right, they smoke bamboo, because tanks and armored vehicles are more scarce than “marching replenishment”.
It's time for the Russians to prepare new packages
That's when the Russians begin this near Bakhmut, it will really mean that the Putin regime has switched to the format “women are still giving birth.” With this format of hostilities in the next six months, the Kremlin will completely cross the new frontier of 200,000 or even 300,000 dead Russians. They will have to conduct a hypothetical attack on Kyiv from Belarus in exactly the format described above. Without any chance for the strategic success of such an attack.
Indeed, the current situation poses one strategic threat, thanks to which the Russian Federation can strengthen itself to wage war against Ukraine. But this threat is a little off where we think.
Russia is a country trying to wage a war on a Soviet scale and according to Soviet patterns. But a country that has already gone through deindustrialization cannot effectively mobilize.
How the occupiers are reanimating the defense industry
How Putin's Russian Federation is ineffective in the war can be shown at least by the example of the reactivation of tanks by the occupiers. To restore one tank, they need to take parts from 3 – 4 tanks and 2 – 3 months of work. To restore one T-72, the Czech Excalibur Army needs 66 days of work and only 15% of the nodes taken “on the side”, the company restores the remaining 85% on its own at its own facilities (the Czechs themselves boasted that they were modernizing 120 tanks for the Armed Forces at such a pace as part of military assistance from the United States).
The Kremlin really understands the full depth of the technological lag of its military-industrial complex. Therefore, it is trying to solve the problem not only in an extensive way, that is, by transferring the defense industry to three shifts or a 12-hour day.
Note: the Russian Federation, through its emissaries in the West, has been engaged in fake “peaceful sounding” for the past six months. And it seems that this was one of the circumstances that opened up a “gap” for the Russians, say, for illegal imports of electronics. Which, in turn, allowed the orcs to almost double the production of cruise missiles for shelling Ukraine.
Probably, the Kremlin will continue the same for the next six months. To open a “gap” for the illegal import of spare parts needed for tanks, artillery and other types of MBT. Let's be careful and careful.
