Russian offensive actions along the entire front line could be exhausted in one and a half to two months, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov and Commander of the National Guard Alexander Pivnenko recently stated.
At the same time, the halt in the Russian offensive and the transition of Russian troops to the defensive does not mean that Ukrainian troops will be able to regroup in time and go on the offensive, driving the enemy out of the occupied lands. This is also said, in particular, by Budanov, who believes that the pause in the Russian army's offensive should be used, otherwise the Russian Armed Forces will accumulate forces and subsequently go on the offensive again.
About whether Russia will go on the defensive in the near future, and whether the Ukrainian army can then drive the Russian invaders out of the lands of Ukraine — ICTV Facts discussed with military experts Mikhail Samus and Evgeny Dikiy.
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When the Russian army will go on the defensive
As NGU Commander Alexander Pivnenko pointed out earlier, the enemy's offensive capabilities are not unlimited, especially given the losses of the Russian Federation. In his opinion, “another month and a half”, and the Russians will no longer be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once, and will therefore go on the defensive.
At the same time, military experts interviewed by ICTV Fakty are more skeptical about such specific estimates regarding the timing of the exhaustion of the Russian army.
Thus, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, military expert Evgeny Diky believes that one should avoid being precise in such statements, and the current offensive could last one month or four.
— But the trend is already quite obvious, and to break (Russian troops, — Ed.) nothing. That offensive can be compared to an asphalt roller. In 2023 they assembled a really large army. Now, we can say that they got this skating rink up and running. But the peak of their power was in the winter and spring of this year. Now this roller is still moving forward by inertia, since it is accelerated, since it is heavy, then by inertia it will push something else through. Accordingly, they are still capable of occupying part of our territory, — says Wild.
At the same time, this “skating rink” is already stopping, and the Russian army is suffering very heavy losses, which it cannot recover through replenishment. The situation is similar with technology, where the number of weapons and other technical equipment decreases monthly.
In parallel with this in Ukraine the situation is improving, as more weapons and ammunition appear, and the pace of mobilization in the state has increased.
— Now the army still has this (mobilization resource, — Ed.) does not feel. But we here in the rear see how many people are being recruited. We see that in the fall there will be a serious replenishment. So, indeed, the time is not far off when we will change places (with Russia, — Ed.), — he says.
According to Dikiy, he does not see today in Russia the resources to reverse this trend.
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At the same time, the deputy director of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mikhail Samus is less optimistic in his assessments.
— I believe that how long Russia can continue its offensive now depends on Ukraine, on our partners. If Ukraine does not have modern aviation, does not have enough long-range weapons, if Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russian territory, that is, Russia will not be able to calmly create its own capabilities and capabilities for offensive actions along the entire length of the Russian-Ukrainian border, then Russia can advance for a long time , — Samus thinks.
According to him, an important factor is oil prices, which “obviously are not going to decline”.
— And if so, Russia will have enough financial resources to pump up its economy with petrodollars and other currencies in order to continue to fight, restore its weapons and military equipment, pay more than $20 thousand bonuses for a soldier who signs a contract, and so on. That is, if Ukraine does not strengthen, then Russia can continue this offensive for quite a long time, — he says.
Now, says Samus, due to the mass use of guided aerial bombs (GAB) and the advantage in artillery, Russian troops “can push through the Ukrainian defense, and we cannot stop it, because we do not have the tools”.
According to the expert, the goal of the Russians — to occupy the entire Donbass before the elections in the United States, and therefore the Kremlin will continue to do so as long as the Armed Forces of Ukraine allow them to do so.
Can Ukraine go on the offensive when the Russian Federation is on the defensive
Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov, assessing the exhaustion of Russian troops, also pointed out that the fact that after the offensive of the Russian Federation there will be a “decline and lull”, means that subsequently the enemy will try to attack again.
And although the NGU commander Pivnenko stated that during this time the Ukrainian army needs to “form our units” and prepare, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense warned about the need to take advantage of this pause.
— Everything depends not on the enemy, but on us — what our actions will be. Or we will just sit and wait, four or five months will pass and everything will repeat itself again. Or we will act. I really hope that we understand this, — said Budanov.
ATO veteran Yevgeny Diky fully supported Budanov's words and added that the Ukrainian army, when Russia goes on the defensive, needs to go on the offensive.
— Budanov is absolutely right. In order for Russia to simply go on the defensive, for the Russian offensive to run out of steam, we only need to hold on as we are now. But in order to go on the offensive and further push them out, further finish them off and precisely change places with them, this is what additional efforts are needed for, — he says.
According to the expert, Ukraine already now needs to prepare “large enough reserve brigades”, which will then be redeployed at a more necessary moment.
— We need to not just withstand their pressure and wait until the offensive runs out of steam. And during this time we need to develop a maximum campaign of strikes against their rear and prepare reserves for active actions at the front. That is, as soon as they run out of steam and go on the defensive, then we must go on the offensive, he believes.
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According to Dikiy, with the current offensive of Russian troops, they will probably be able to gain a foothold where they will be stopped either by a deficit of their resources or by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
— For example, on the Zaporizhzhya Frontit is already obvious that this is the line that is now. They literally had to make super efforts to at least simply level the ledge under Robotino. There is no talk of breaking through our lines any further. Here in the Kharkiv region they have a super task — to consolidate along the line where they are now, where they entered in May. But I think that they will not be allowed to do this, — says the expert.
Next, the Russians in the north of the Kharkiv region will have to consolidate their position on their own territory.
As for Donbass, the enemy is trying to “make the most of it, namely — to capture a large agglomeration of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka.
— I believe that this “plan is the maximum” they have no chance. But they will still make progress there. For now they are so dispersed there that they will push our defense back a little more. Well, actually on which line they will run out of reserves, this is where they will be, — he says.
The expert adds that the Ukrainian offensive could be significantly more successful than, for example, in the summer of 2023.
— I hope that we will generally avoid the option of a frontal attack. I really hope that we will find where to attack unexpectedly. Because wherever you advance as expected, you still resist, just as we resisted last summer, — he says.
Evgeniy Dikiy summarizes that the 2023 counteroffensive was carried out when the enemy forces were in deep defense, with mined fields and had time to recover. In addition, at that time the Russian army received mobilization reserves from the fall of 2022.
— Therefore, I hope that we will not rush the next offensive, but will go on the offensive precisely when they are already in very bad shape in order to contain it, — he says.
The logic is, the expert continues, not to control more territories, but to inflict maximum losses on the enemy and only then carry out offensive actions.
— Last year we violated this logic for a number of reasons, in particular political ones, and were forced to attack a fresh, non-exhausted army, — Wild summarizes.
Recall that earlier President Vladimir Zelensky said that today the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a reserve of 14 brigades, but so far they do not have enough weapons to fully fight.
