The Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully push the enemy out of Ukraine. The world is already modeling options for the development of events after the end of the war in Ukraine.
However, such scenarios are not voiced publicly, since they can be very painful for the general public. Political scientist Andrei Vigirinsky told channel 24 about this.
Why Ukrainians are not ready for some scenarios for ending the war
According to him, one must understand that among the options for ending the war there are those in which Russia persists.
Not every Ukrainian is ready to put up with the end of the war in exactly this scenario. Our society, accustomed to thinking empathically rather than pragmatically, will perceive this as the spread of Kremlin propaganda,” Vigirinsky said. p>However, according to the political scientist, the world does not consider the scenario of Ukraine's victory over Russia militarily, which will lead to the complete surrender of Russia.
Andrey Vigirinskiy
Political scientist
< blockquote>Russia can capitulate on the battlefield of Ukraine in the war it unleashed. That is, when Russia does not achieve its goals in the war and we de-occupy the territory of Ukraine, the entire civilized world realizes that Russia has been defeated. But to be defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine is not tantamount to the capitulation of Russia, if our Armed Forces of Ukraine stood at the walls of the Kremlin. These are completely different things.
Vigirinsky stressed that Russia had already been defeated on the battlefield.
” The legend of Russian military viability and power has already been dispelled. In this sense, they are no longer perceived as a significant military threat, if you do not take into account nuclear weapons,” the political scientist said.
What will happen to the Russian economy after the war< /h2>
According to Vigirinsky, after a defeat on the battlefield, the next stage of losing in any war is political and economic obligations.
The world today limits Russia to economic cooperation, but retains the ability to download resources from it.In this sense, little will change after the war,” the political scientist noted.
He suggested that Russia would be in a position like Iran, which manages to sell its energy resource, even under sanctions.
“A political end to the war is hardly possible with Putin”
The last important step in ending the war is political agreements.
The question of taking political obligations and formalizing the end of the war is hardly possible under Putin. A person who extended the amendments to the Constitution in order to annex the annexed territories of another country to Russia will not negotiate,” Vigirinsky emphasized.
What is needed for the political end of the war
According to the political scientist, in order to end the war politically, several important components are needed.
- Firstly, there must be a clear document signed by Ukraine .
- Secondly, the agreement on the end of the war should contain security guarantees for Ukraine, which will be discussed with our partners and allies.
- The third – and most importantly – document from the other side of the conflict must be signed by a legitimate and negotiable representative, and it must not be Putin.
When the war with Russia might end: versions
- According to Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, there is not much time left before the end of the war. The Armed Forces of Ukraine may reach the administrative borders of Ukraine as of 1991 already in the spring.
- Military expert Oleg Zhdanov suggested that Vladimir Putin is in a hurry to complete the active phase of the war in Ukraine before November 15, 2022. Indeed, on that day, the G-20 summit will be held in Bali.
- The leader of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Akhmed Zakayev, noted that Ukraine's victory in the war would not only destroy the under-empire. But it will also allow other peoples, who have been occupied by Russia for centuries, to free themselves from the yoke.
