Putin does not intend to stop/Getty Images
Since all this information appears with reference to sources in intelligence structures, then, most likely, we are talking about “leaks” from the Kremlin. Accordingly, these are still possible scenarios.
Apparently, Moscow is considering whether just a show with a parade is enough for May 9, or is it necessary to enhance the effect and make some resonant statements in the current conditions?
After all, there are no victories on the Ukrainian front. This means that this day should be celebrated with new “fateful” decisions.
Let's consider both scenarios voiced in the media from the point of view of their possible consequences for Russia's war against Ukraine.
“General mobilization” scenario
The militant chauvinists in Russia have been talking about the need for general mobilization to defeat Ukraine for almost two months, since the failure of the Russian “blitzkrieg” in Ukraine became obvious.
< p>Now it is even more noticeable that the Russian troops do not have enough resources, including manpower, for a large-scale offensive, even only in the Donbass. Troops are also needed to hold the new occupied territories. From this point of view, it would seem that everything is already predetermined. After some time, Putin will go to the general mobilization. If not May 9, then somewhat later. But not everything is so simple.
General mobilization is possible in the event of an official declaration of war.
The real war of Russia against Ukraine is already underway, but in Muscovy it is bashfully and manipulatively called a “special military operation”. And if now to declare, and even on Victory Day, the beginning of the war, then this will mean, even indirectly, that the “special military operation” has failed, the “limited military contingent” is not enough, a real war must be started.
And if general mobilization is declared for a war with a country that is 3.5 times smaller than Russia, which has an army 3.5 times smaller, and taking into account other paramilitary formations, 4 times smaller, then this means that big Russia is not can defeat a much smaller Ukraine. It's a shame.
What kind of “Victory Day” is it, it's time to talk about a real defeat. And it will not be clear whether this is May 9 or June 22? Even from a purely propaganda point of view, the announcement of general mobilization on May 9, to put it mildly, will not contribute to the festive and pathos atmosphere in Russia. Quite the contrary.
According to the data of Russian sociologists, the chauvinistic hysteria that arose in Russia after February 24 is already passing. Ordinary Russians switch to more relevant socio-economic problems, which are becoming more acute and more and more.
And instead of a new surge of pretentious chauvinism, panic may arise in Russia. The very word “war” strains and frightens. It is no coincidence that it was banned in Russia. And it is imperceptible that the Russians are eager to join the army now. On the contrary, there are more and more reports of failures of planned indicators both on the next call of “conscripts” and on the contracting of “volunteers”.
The most important thing is whether general mobilization will give Russia the necessary military effect?
Of course, only military experts will give a more competent answer to this question. But even a purely civilized political scientist knows perfectly well that in modern wars they win not by numbers, but by skill, more modern weapons, and the best quality of warfare.
Actually, even now Russia has a significant quantitative advantage over the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but this does not help it much. If there is a general or even partial mobilization in Russia, then the newly drafted should still be trained or simply restored their military skills acquired during the last military service.
I'm not talking about low motivation. And the need for Russia now is not just for “cannon fodder”, but for the military, who must work with certain types of weapons and have at least elementary ideas about the tactics of warfare. And with this, the Russians already have problems, judging by various sources.
Of course, the Russian army may try to crush us quantitatively, with Zhukovsky-style attacks. But this will lead to a sharp increase in the death toll at the front, and is unlikely to improve the mood in Russia itself.
More likely to me is not a scenario of general mobilization, but a phased mobilization. But then it will mean setting the Russian leadership for a long war. At the same time, the mobilized will be needed not only for active participation in hostilities (they will be thrown there in portions, as needed and with proper training), but also for control over the occupied territories.
Donbas annexation scenario
To implement it, approximately the same actions are required as in Crimea in 2014. If they are repeated, then it is necessary to hold new “referenda” in the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” on the desire to join the Russian Federation, and after that there will be an official appeal from the leadership of the so-called “republics” to Putin, and the corresponding decisions of the Russian authorities. All this is unlikely to be done before May 9.
An accelerated option is also possible – without holding referendums (they can simply refer to the decisions of the “referendums” of 2014), only official appeals from the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” to the Russian leadership will be enough. Then they can, in a fire order, be in time for May 9.
In fact, this is a question of Putin's further strategy not only in relation to Ukraine, but also to the entire post-Soviet space. Judging by information from various sources, there are two competing projects in the Kremlin:
- re-establishment of a new Union (in the form of an expansion of the union state);
- direct annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories (both Donbass and southern Ukraine, and possibly other Ukrainian regions that can be captured).
Let me remind you that this year is the centenary of the creation of the USSR, the collapse of which Putin considers the main geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century. By creating a new Union, Putin will, as it were, take revenge for the collapse of the USSR, will look like the creator of a new Union, and thus hopes to remain in history. But within the framework of this project, either a pro-Putin Ukraine is needed, which now looks extremely unlikely, or the creation on the territory of Ukraine of several puppet pseudo-states (“people's republics”), which, together with Belarus, can become subjects of the new Union.
Other unrecognized states – Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria – can also join this “Union”. In passing, I note that if this scenario is implemented, there will potentially be huge risks for the sovereignty of Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, and for other post-Soviet states.
The project of direct annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories is an even greater threat to all post-Soviet states . After all, then Putin will recreate the Russian empire in its purest form, and the annexation of Ukrainian lands will become a very dangerous precedent.
The annexation project is being promoted by supporters of the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood. The final decision in the Kremlin regarding its strategy for Ukraine and the post-Soviet space, apparently, has not yet been made. On the one hand, Putin has obvious sentiments towards the former USSR. On the other hand, we saw his obvious annoyance at the fact that Lenin allegedly created Ukraine.
But for us it is not very important what decision Putin will make. We are talking about a choice between direct and indirect annexation of Ukrainian territories. “radish horseradish is not sweeter.” Both Ukraine and the entire civilized world do not recognize.
But if Putin goes (in one form or another) to the further annexation of Ukrainian territories, this will mean that no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is out of the question. In extreme cases, there can only be a temporary truce.
Thus, the “leaks” from the Kremlin speak not only of additional propaganda entourage for May 9th. We are talking about plans to continue the war against Ukraine. And the differences between these plans are only in the details.
