What Russia Can Present as a “Victory” in Ukraine: ISW Analyzes Moscow's Change in Rhetoric

What Russia can present as a “victory” in Ukraine: ISW analyzed the change in rhetoric in Moscow Sergey Popovich

The Kremlin is trying to reduce the impact of the war on Russian society, while simultaneously changing the rhetoric regarding its goals in Ukraine. What kind of “victory” can the Russian government demonstrate to society.

Achieving positive results in Ukraine is the main goal of the ruling party of Russia. However, victory for Russia does not necessarily mean the capitulation of Ukraine. This was reported by 24 Kanal with reference to ISW.

What kind of “victory” will the Kremlin show to Russians

The Russian presidential administration has set goals for the United Russia party in the 2026 parliamentary elections. These goals include achieving a 55% turnout and receiving 55% of the vote, exceeding the results of the 2021 elections, and creating a positive image of a possible end to the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin is trying to present any outcome of the war as a “victory” acceptable to all segments of society. The emphasis is on rhetoric about “denazification,” “demilitarization,” and holding on to annexed territories, while avoiding the topic of returning wounded veterans. This approach is aimed at pleasing ultranationalists as well as the “silent majority” that does not have a clearly defined political position.

The Kremlin is also concerned about the reintegration of war veterans, which indicates an awareness of the possible social consequences of their return. With unemployment low, many veterans may find themselves unemployed upon their return, creating additional challenges. The Kremlin is trying to present the setbacks at the front as strategic achievements and has no idea how this war will end.

Russia has not achieved its goals of “denazification”, “demilitarization” of Ukraine or the complete capture of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, but the Kremlin is still focusing on the first two “achievements”, which are abstract and difficult to verify. Moscow probably does not know what territorial results it can achieve.