It is difficult to understand what Putin was thinking about, because his regime is not a model of transparency. But it is important to understand his motives – these are clues about how the conflict in Taiwan might start.
Bloomberg writes that the most obvious reason for the invasion is that Putin sought to restore the post-Soviet empire. Like, the dictator does not consider Ukraine a “real country” and has been working for years to return it to Russia.
However, until February 24, 2022, Putin never once tried to take over the entire country. So what led to the escalation?
The international arena looked favorable for an attempt to settle scores with Kiev. The US did not seem strong enough after the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Biden was not tough on Moscow, but called for a “stable and envisaged” relationship with Putin, the article says.
A quick win could have helped Putin avoid Western backlash
Putin believed that Europe, dependent on Russian gas, would not dare to oppose him in the dead of winter. Germany had a new government headed by the Social Democratic Party, historically friendly to Russia; France was approaching the presidential elections. “Even Biden worried that a Russian attack might provoke transatlantic discord rather than unity.
If Putin could – as he believed – win the war quickly, perhaps he could have destroyed an independent Ukraine without triggering a strong international backlash, the authors conceded.
However, Putin could also decide to invade because he realized that his policy towards Ukraine was on the verge of failure.
“In the end, Putin faced a Western-leaning Ukraine, refusing to be subjected to Russian pressure and strengthening militarily,” the authors stressed.
Putin's defeat is revealing
Moreover, many of Putin's calculations turned out to be completely wrong. Russia's military advantage is not as significant as he imagined.
The war Putin expected was not the war he got. However, his mistake is revealing, Bloomberg concludes.
A similar dynamic can be displayed in China's decision to invade Taiwan. The chances of using force against Taiwan will be highest, reporters say, when President Xi Jinping concludes that the military balance in Asia is now in Beijing's favor and that China is running out of other options to get what it wants.
They say that ambitious dictators who feel that they are losing authority and power should be afraid. And that is exactly what could happen in Asia in the near future.
