Russia does not want to abandon its plans to seize Ukraine and is preparing for a protracted war. According to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Alexey Danilov, after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, which are scheduled for the spring of 2024, Putin may announce total mobilization. Military expert Alexander Kovalenko and political scientist Igor Reiterovich told ICTV Facts about what this means and whether such a scenario is possible.
What is total mobilization
– There is no such term as total mobilization. There are terms open mobilization or hidden mobilization, says Alexander Kovalenko.
The military expert explains that open mobilization is the carrying out of mobilization activities during military operations during a war or under the threat of an attack. That is, this is the mobilization of the population, which falls under the mobilization needs of the state. Covert mobilization is when, under the guise of some kind of operational or mobilization training of troops, preparations are actually taking place for another type of event and action.
– It seems to me that Alexey Danilov used a term [total mobilization], which attracts more attention and has certain associations with such a concept as total war. By the way, the Nazis loved to talk about it, especially in the last years of World War II, when it was already clear that they were losing,” noted Igor Reiterovich.
According to the political scientist, most likely, the NSDC Secretary meant that the introduction of total mobilization would concern not only the direct recruitment of men into the army in a mass format, but also mobilization in the rear, that is, all enterprises would be transferred to a military footing.
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In addition, in such a scenario, it is possible to introduce certain restrictions and a state of emergency with military elements. This will allow the authorities to confiscate the property of their citizens, especially movable property, such as cars, and send them to the front.
Is total mobilization possible in Russia?
According to Alexander Kovalenko, Russia may mobilize after the end of the presidential elections, but it is unlikely that it will be announced as an open mobilization. Most likely, the Russian authorities will find some other name for this, another euphemism.
— This could be partial mobilization 2.0 or some kind of formation of a mobilization reserve for the needs of the so-called Northern Military District, or something else. That is, such a veiled name may be. Namely, they will not call it mobilization, because they continue to adhere to the general propaganda context that everything is going according to plan. And if everything is going according to plan, if they are not having a war, but a so-called North Military District, why mobilize? – says the military expert.
Alexander Kovalenko also believes that the possible mobilization will be quantitatively less than the so-called partial mobilization that took place in the fall of 2022.
“Then they tried to mobilize 100 thousand, and their mobilization system, to put it mildly, almost exploded. Therefore, now there will be a completely different scale of mobilization. I think they can mobilize somewhere around 50-60 thousand per month, but this will continue every month without time limits, perhaps throughout the next year,” the military expert believes.
Igor Reiterovich also believes that total mobilization in the Russian Federation is impossible, although theoretically Russia can recruit even a couple of million people through mobilization.
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– At a minimum, they have the ability to collect these people with the help of law enforcement agencies, that is, to ensure, let’s say, that they appear at the military registration and enlistment offices not of their own free will. But then a simple question arises: they will recruit them, and what to do next? – says Igor Reiterovich.
The political scientist explains that after a person liable for military service is drafted into the army, he needs to be dressed, equipped and trained, and the Russian Federation does not have the capabilities to do this.
A year ago, information appeared in the media that the Russian army did not have enough uniforms, so Russia ordered them from North Korea. Therefore, in the event of the introduction of total mobilization, their families will have to equip the recruits at their own expense.
Even now such cases occur. They are told by Russian women who are looking for their husbands and sons who disappeared during the war in Ukraine.
– When such cases become total, and tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people talk about this, then a simple question will arise, what kind of state is this that mobilizes, and then places full equipment on this mobilized person? This is some kind of wild Middle Ages, when it was customary, for example, for a village to send one or two recruits to the army, but the village had an obligation to equip them, that is, give them weapons, armor, food and send them to serve, says Igor Reiterovich.
According to the political scientist, in this context, the Russian authorities simply will not be able to not only dress and train such a mass of people, but even send them to the front.
– I don’t think it can work in such a total format. This, by the way, also applies to the transfer of the economy to a war footing,” says Igor Reiterovich.
The political scientist explains that when the economy is put on a war footing, all enterprises must work in 2-3 shifts. But modern enterprises mostly employ trained specialists.
According to the logic of total mobilization, a significant part of these specialists will be sent to the front, and there will be no one to replace them. In Russia there is already a shortage of labor in enterprises not related to the defense sector.
– I don’t think that the scenario of total mobilization in Russia can work. On the other hand, I understand that Mr. Danilov’s statements are primarily political and, to a certain extent, aimed at our Western allies, so that they do not relax and understand that Russia, in principle, can try to do this – accumulate a huge mass of people, and then drive them away for slaughter. Moreover, by the way, it is far from a fact that it is exclusively in the direction of Ukraine,” Reiterovich emphasizes.
The political scientist notes that recently there has been active discussion of a possible Russian attack on the Baltic countries in order to restore the borders of the Soviet Union or even the Russian Empire.
Does Ukraine need total mobilization?
– Ukraine is not threatened with total mobilization for two reasons. Firstly, we do not need so many military personnel. Therefore, there are objective needs of the military to satisfy the necessary rotation of units on the front line. They say they have enough for now. We’ll see what happens next, but it’s still not hundreds of thousands or a million mobilized at once,” the political scientist is sure.
The second reason, according to Igor Reiterovich, is the mobilization capabilities of the country, that is, its ability to dress, arm and train recruits.
– It is necessary to make certain changes to mobilization processes. On the one hand, to strengthen recruitment into the army, and on the other, to tighten the requirements for it. It is necessary that those mobilized are actually prepared or have the opportunity to receive quality training. The principle of gaining as many as possible and then throwing them into meat assaults, as Russia does, will not work for us, because society will not accept this and will react differently,” the political scientist emphasizes.
According to Igor Reiterovich, mobilization in certain areas of the economy should have been carried out a long time ago. To do this, we need certain programs that will be not so much of a mobilization nature as of an incentive one.
– That is, these should be programs that will help people have a desire to work more and produce everything for the front and our victory. I don’t see many such programs yet. We have them, but they relate more to volunteering,” says the political scientist.
Igor Reiterovich also noted that the production of drones and some other things for the army is now gradually beginning. Therefore, it is necessary to look for personnel who can do this effectively and encourage them.
