“We haven't started yet”: the expert explained Putin's bold statement and called options for ending the war/Channel 24 site collage
Russia has been waging its aggressive war against Ukraine for almost half a year. It seems that the leader of the aggressor country did not realize that he was doomed to lose. Therefore, he began to say that “he had not even begun to fight yet.” Apparently the Russian leader is unaware that actions speak louder than words. Ukraine, on the other hand, steadfastly holds the blow and powerfully gives answers to the invaders.
Why is the enemy recruiting Latvian officials, what is behind Putin’s words about “we have not yet begun to fight seriously”, is it possible to carry out total mobilization in Russia, given the current circumstances of the place-time, which model of existence is best suited for modern Russia and what could be options for ending the war – political strategist Aleksey Golobutsky told the Channel 24 website exclusively.
If you see last names and first names in our news with a small letter, this is not a mistake, but the position of the editors regarding the actions of terrorist states and individuals, supported a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin's new efforts
Why did Russia need to recruit officials in the Lithuanian border from the Latvian side?
If we are talking specifically about Latvians of Russian origin loyal to the Russian authorities, then the Russians may need this to conduct subversive work on the ground by proxy. However, the chances of success here are not too great, because even Russian loyalists from the Latvian side are not “scoops” in the usual sense of the word. Clearly not Ukrainian-style collaborators.
Latvian scoops are accustomed to act much more pragmatically. Local Russians are not so stupid as to give up the privileges of an EU country for the sake of dubious service to their historical homeland. Yes, they want to speak Russian, they want everything to be written in Russian, they don't want to learn the Latvian language. And at the same time, they do not want to get rid of the passport of a citizen of the European Union.
Therefore, all these efforts of the Russian elite are worth absolutely nothing. You see, Latvia is a NATO country. The recruited officials will not help Russia conquer Latvia. The only way that can come in handy is rapid military aggression. And even in this case, the answer from the Alliance will not be long in coming.
The suspicion creeps in that all or most of the money allocated for recruitment has already been successfully cut.
According to Golobutsky, Putin himself believed in what he was saying/Photo courtesy of the speaker Putin's words that, they say, we have not even started to fight yet?
the Russian president lives in his own parallel world, which is very different from the real one. But any person who has been at the highest level of the power hierarchy for 20 years will one day lose touch with reality. And especially in conditions of authoritarianism. Under such circumstances, an official is inclined to lose those qualities that he possessed at the very beginning of his tenure.
Most likely, our enemy simply convinced himself of the truthfulness of everything that, like he seems real. After all, the original plan failed. And Putin refuses to believe it. Consequently, he came up with another plan for himself, which, from his point of view, can be implemented.
That is, everything that happened 4 months before that was not his fault, not a problem. Everyone is to blame, but not him. Here's how he thinks.
According to his new plan, things “haven't even started yet.” Another thing is, what exactly is this plan, exactly? I personally have no idea about this. If we consider his words, taking into account the fact that the owner of the Kremlin had been isolated from all problems, uncomfortable situations and the like for almost all 20 years, then one ceases to be surprised at all.
Putin's picture of reality is deformed/Photo by Getty Images
Sitting at a half-kilometer table while meeting with subordinates is just another proof that the picture of reality is deformed in Putin's mind.
On the other hand, I can assume that the Kremlin dictator really knows how the situation in Ukraine is developing and is trying with such loud statements that this is just the beginning to discourage our partners from further sustainable support of our state. Accordingly, focusing on trying to sow discord in the west by somehow intimidating it.
The plan may be that if it is impossible to win a military victory, one should concentrate on winning a diplomatic one.
< em>Could this mean that the president of the occupying country is preparing the prerequisites for total mobilization? We can already see how the Russians are preparing the appropriate legislative framework in the business sphere.
What the Kremlin is doing with the economy, I would call the creation of the minimum necessary conditions under which he can still endure this war for a while.
The problem is that all those who call for full mobilization, like the same Strelkov, still sometimes understand that this is an idea from the realm of fantasy. Here, it is impossible to take and recruit from one million to two military men in one fell swoop.
Well, that is, it can be done purely physically, but the effect on the economy will be devastating. A special mobilization economic model should have been created in advance. That is, Putin, by and large, should have created an analogue of the Stalinist mobilization economy of the late 30s, early 40s of the last century.
In modern conditions, it is simply impossible to do something like this in Russia. To build the necessary economic structure, you need to spend a lot of time. Decades of hard work. Including systematic work to destroy the smallest hint of resistance within the Russian Federation. Following the example of Stalinist repressions during the 20s and 30s. At the same time, in all, without exception, links of society: from the military to the peasantry.
In addition, it is necessary to reproduce the proper economic conditions, when people will be ready to work, sweating for a meager ration. Today, even with all the terrible difference between Moscow and the periphery, modern Russia is a country that does not starve. Moreover, she also manages to export surplus food.
Therefore, we see that what was relevant for the Soviet Union does not exist in Russia. In order to conduct a comprehensive mobilization, in the modern world it is necessary to build a country on the model of the DPRK. With all the socio-economic attributes inherent in such a political system.
In the absence of the ability to act as he wants, Putin will have to act according to the situation. That is, all he can do is covert or partial mobilization. In fact, this is what is happening now. Everyone already knows about this.
It should be added that Putin wants to achieve the maximum result with the minimum effort because of his own fear. While he gives the order to stand on the mobilization rails, the inner kitchen may boil.
And secondly, then the time will come when the sanctions will really take effect. Europe in this case, without hesitation, will refuse gas. The more Putin tries to make the EU worse, the faster they will look for alternative suppliers of this energy source.
And therefore, understanding how the situation can become more complicated, Putin is simply waiting for the right moment. Perhaps he is waiting for at least some tactical successes at the front. Let's say, while his troops completely capture the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. By that time, winter will breathe frosty breath in everyone's backs. In addition, energy and food crises are brewing.
That's when the Russian satrap will start pulling cards out of his sleeves. Moreover, there will obviously be no mobilization among them. It will simply be unnecessary in such conditions.
According to the expert, Putin is waiting at least some success in Ukraine/Photo by Getty Images He is also subject to the newly adopted law on discrediting Russian assassins.
Russia is not the Soviet Union. No matter how strange it may sound. Even taking into account today's realities of the gloomy political reality there. So far, Russia is only an authoritarian despotism.
Recently I read an article that when they wanted to ban Youtube in Russia, according to the results of a sociological study conducted the day before, they found that a huge number of people give this platform an absolute advantage. And therefore we decided not to go so far, fearing to undergo a massive sharply negative reaction.
That is, it is still such a hybrid system. Russia is a very complex country. Yes, and it cannot be ruled out that the Girsky himself may have a “roof” for the FSB. After all, he has many like-minded people who are regulars in right-wing circles. And the Kremlin is also seriously afraid of such aggressive Russian imperialists.
Options for ending the war in Ukraine
How, in your opinion, can the war in Ukraine end?
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- First scriptcomes down to the fact that we will have the current status quo for several years. And in a few years there will be a new war. And it, most likely, will definitely become the final chord in our life-and-death confrontation with the Russians.
- The second option will be just a war of attrition. Here, it will be necessary to take the resource potential of the parties as a basis. Whoever wears out the resource base faster will lose.
- And the third option– the most positive, oddly enough, from the point of view of the Ukrainian future. We are pushing the invaders out of the South, we are doing something with the Donbass, and Putin, in a desperate impulse, perceiving everything that happened as a catastrophe, launches an algorithm that will eventually lead to the collapse of Russia.
First, it announces a full mobilization, albeit a demonstrative one, but still an explosion of a nuclear missile somewhere on Novaya Zemlya. The West will have no choice but to respond adequately. And as a result, the situation goes beyond controllability and leads to the disintegration of Russia as such. And with it, the final dismantling of the phenomenon of the post-Soviet space.
Finally, the time bombs planted more than a hundred years ago after the red revolution will work. We already see individual manifestations of this detonation, the prerequisites for it. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and so on. When the corpse of the Russian state decomposes, all its former territories will go into free navigation.
