Kamala Harris has replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. What are her chances of winning, who will win the US presidential election — read the forecasts on ICTV Fakty.
US Elections: Who Will Win According to the Rating Results
According to experts, Kamala Harris currently has a better chance of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump. Over the last week of July, she has significantly increased her rating, while her main competitor, on the contrary, has lost.
US Vice President Kamala Harris has published her campaign video in which she calls for freedom and criticizes the legal problems of former President Donald Trump. She proposes to choose freedom, and not become a country of chaos, fear and hatred.
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The results of a national Reuters/Ipsos poll show that Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race.
In a national poll Harris beat Trump 44% to 42%, with a difference within a 3% margin of error. However, Trump disagrees and assures the public that he can defeat Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
US elections: who will win according to experts
Presidential election forecaster Allan Lichtman has made a preliminary prediction for the November 2024 US presidential election.
He said that based on the formula he uses to predict election results, Vice President Kamala Harris will win the race. However, the final prediction can be made in August, after the Democratic National Convention.
Note that Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the last nine out of ten White House elections. To do this, in 1981, he and renowned mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed a special formula to determine the winner. It has since been used to predict the outcome of the United States presidential election with a high success rate.
Lichtman's forecast has Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning 8 of 13 points so far, which is usually enough to win.
Harris has the following keys that could ensure victory:
- no primary contest;
- no third party;
- strong short-term economy;
- strong long-term economy prospects;
- major policy changes, significant changes from the previous administration, or truly historic policy changes;
- no social unrest;
- no scandals or involvement in corruption;
- non-controversial candidate.
Will his judgment be correct this time and who will win the 2024 US presidential election — we'll see in November.
