Under what conditions can Putin attack NATO: interview with Mikhail Podolyak

Under what conditions can Putin attack NATO: interview with Mikhail Podolyak Ekaterina Solyar Oksana Kharkovska

NATO member countries realize , that now Russia cannot open a second front to attack the Alliance. The fact is that now Vladimir Putin does not have the resources for this, but everything can change.

Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak in in an exclusive interview with Channel 24 stressed that Russia may have the potential to attack NATO if it does not lose in the war against Ukraine. More about this, what Putin wanted to achieve with a blow to Okhmatdyt – read further in the material.

What did Putin want to achieve with a strike on Okhmatdyt

In the telegram you wrote that the strike according to Okhmatdyt, is an absolutely thoughtful action, specially developed and approved by Vladimir Putin. Russia is sending everyone an informal signal that even the outright murder of children will not force NATO to make the necessary decisions. As I understand it, not only this signal, but also the fact that no matter what sanctions the partners impose against Russia, the X-101 missile contains Western components. It’s as if Putin said that “you bear the same responsibility as I do, because my rocket contains your components, so it’s your fault too.”

I wouldn’t put an equation sign between Putin and everyone else – that’s obvious. Putin is absolutely crazy about war. He is a dictator and solves the issues that have accumulated in Russia in the same way that Russia or the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire are used to solving. That is, by killing large numbers of civilians in other countries. And the questions will only continue to accumulate.

The question is different. The question is that these companies and people who belong to the allied states of Ukraine do not make quick decisions, or, on the contrary, pretend that they do not understand the direct relationship between sanctions, which do not work fully, between indirect or direct work on Russian markets.

We know many companies from “white” jurisdictions – European, American – that continue to work for Russia. Representatives of these companies understand that they pay large taxes to the budget, a share of which goes to finance the war. This is the cynical behavior of the modern world, they say, we make money, we get bonus profits. These are slightly different components.

That is, Putin deliberately kills people – this is his only mechanism for communicating with other people, with other countries. And people who work with Russia in one way or another, or transfer something to it, are simply indifferent to them. This is the “butterfly” principle, only not in the historical sense, but in the geographical sense. attack on Ukraine, and this will not affect you in any way. No, this will affect everyone. Why? Because global security today is at its lowest level since World War II.

What kind of signal is Putin sending to everyone? Like, “I'm striking, I don't care about the rules of war.” Because even war is prescribed by certain rules, no matter how absurd it may sound. It says that you can't strike targets in large or small cities where there is a civilian population; you can't strike during rush hour, when a large number of civilians are on the streets.

But Putin does this deliberately. What does he want to emphasize in this way? This is a much more important conclusion, not everyone fully understands it. He very simply says that he is committing a large-scale war crime – killing children, because if Russia loses, then another crime will be added to his dock. But if he doesn’t lose, and this chance increases because Putin scares people, then he will not sit in the dock and he will not be punished for these crimes.

That is, he allegedly sends signals, in particular, to his country, saying that they must resist, not lose, and also sit down at the fake negotiating table. Because as soon as they sit there, the number of such war crimes will not make any difference.

Putin strikes at Okhmatdyt “He says that with such a blow, Russia will shock not only Ukraine, but also other countries, so that they will force Kyiv to sit at the fake negotiating table. The fake negotiating table is Putin’s key goal. He understands that as soon as he gets in there, there will be no legal punishment.

Why Russia desperately needs negotiations

Russia refused to participate in the next Peace Summit. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, they “hear the previous rhetoric in the vain hope of pushing through Vladimir Zelensky’s formula and see a deliberate disregard for other initiatives to resolve the “Ukrainian crisis.”

This is a situational statement. This is a person who does not influence any processes. Just an informational occasion, nothing more. what is happening. Russia is now in an emotional state. It does not understand what is happening on the front line and in the world in general. Therefore, they will continue to make these classic propaganda statements.

But here the question is what? In order for there to be an effective route to a just peace and for the Second Peace Summit to be also effective and have certain productive consequences, it is necessary for the instruments of coercion against Russia to work in full, so that:

• it loses more and more in this war;
• it suffers economic losses from the war, which will only grow;
• the cost of the war increases.

For this, the sanctions must be different. On the other hand – arms supplies, closed skies over Ukraine.

If someone still continues to be afraid and does not want to use their missile defense systems to shoot down Russian missiles that are located in the sovereign space of Ukraine, then at least it is necessary to provide 5 – 15 missile defense systems, like Patriot or SAMP/T, because against only they can work in ballistics and supersonics. This is very important.

If Russia is deprived of a tool to influence the civilian population, when it cannot attack and break through the system missile defense of Ukraine; the aviation component is fully deployed and operational, that is, the F-16, and the number is not 15 aircraft, but 128, as the president says. Then everything will look different along the front line.

Next, we remove the second component – ​​Russia’s long-range capabilities, primarily guided aerial bombs. In addition, it is necessary to finally remove all these informal prohibitions on striking Russian aviation infrastructure. Ukraine needs to destroy tactical aviation, because it operates along the front line, against border cities, for example Kharkov.

At the same time, strategic aviation means strikes in Kyiv, Dnieper, Lvov. This must be destroyed. A large number of long-range missiles are also needed. That is, Ukraine should have missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers and in other quantities. Then this will make it possible to destroy logistics, and it will cost Russia much more, it will not have enough money.

Let's return to sanctions. They should not just be targeted against individuals, but industry-wide. Russia should be deprived of the opportunity to operate in global financial markets. It must be finally separated from the euro and the dollar, from the nuclear energy markets, from a whole range of technological goods, say, consumer goods.

There must also be a different type of diplomatic pressure on Russia. In my opinion, this looks extremely absurd and this needs to be resolved by the second Peace Summit. Because even at an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council, when the attack by the aggressor country on a children’s hospital was considered, who moderated it? This is nonsense. Russia is the country that dealt this blow. There was no way to expect any effective actions, declarations or resolutions.

This indicates the extremely low intellectual level of Russia. She has already demonstrated it several times. Some people simply had inflated expectations that Russia had a certain collective intelligence. No, that's not true. They act absolutely primitively. In addition, do not forget what speakers they have: Galuzin, Ryabkov, Zakharova, if we take only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Just look at the level of statements and argumentation.

This type of Russian action actually emphasizes that this state is not only affective, that is, it does not understand consequences of his actions and is not critical of his condition. This is a mental state changed in the collective elites of Russia. They are also intellectually limited, because they think that they played something subtly, ironically.

No, they thus emphasize that Russia is a country with which today it is extremely unprofitable to sit down, not just at the negotiating table, but to have any kind of relationship at all.

Why is Ukraine not provided with more air defense systems now

The Kh-101 missile that Russia attacked the attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital had Western components. It turns out that there are enough components for the missile, but there are not enough air defense systems to allow Ukraine to defend itself?

< p dir="ltr">If we are talking about the military capabilities of the countries that support Ukraine and the countries that are in alliance with Russia, they are not comparable. There are enough weapons, in particular anti-missile weapons, that could be supplied to Ukraine, and they would definitely make it possible to completely close the sky. That is, in quantity it is all there and in warehouses.

In addition, today there are no longer the so-called “red lines” that existed, for example, at the beginning or even in the middle of the war – when they were afraid to transfer this or that type of weapon because they thought that this would lead to a certain escalation. That is, ideologically there are no obstacles to refuse to transfer something to Ukraine, because this could lead to escalation.

The moment of the missile strike on Okhmatdyt: watch the video

It is clear that the only country that is leading to escalation , Russia is doing this deliberately, in particular by striking civilian targets. In this case, by hospitals. By the way, Russia has already used this technology. If this were the first time, then one could say that perhaps this was an “accident”.

I understand that it is nonsense to say that Russia does something by accident, because it deliberately commits genocidal practices. But, as an example, this was fully used by Russia as part of the Syrian war in 2015. They also attacked the civilian population, the center of the city of Aleppo – they demolished it to the ground, they also struck hospitals in order to cause a shock reaction in the anti-Russian coalition.

That's why it's still mysterious to me. Countries see what Russia is doing live; see it using attacks on civilians as a key component of waging this war. This is a classic genocidal war, which consists of several components:

• they seize territory, immediately begin to build dungeons in the occupied territories, carry out filtering: some people are killed, some people disappear, they are sent to settle in the depths of Russia, children are kidnapped;
• deliberate large-scale missile attacks on places that are located in a large city, deep from the front line;

They hit not only the energy infrastructure. Although attacks on energy infrastructure are also a genocidal component, because energy is civil infrastructure. It provides people in the 21st century with the necessary opportunities to live more or less well.

Our partners see all this. The warehouses have missile defense systems. Obviously, the transfer of large quantities will not harm the security of these countries, because today there will definitely not be a war in these countries while there is a large-scale war in Eastern Europe.

Today, there are no other countries in the world, except Russia, that are ready for aggression of such scale and intensity. Especially on the European continent. Countries that are located in Europe or North America will definitely not be drawn into a major war on their territory. That is what these missile defense systems are for.

On the other hand, only partners use these missile defense systems in Ukraine and destroy Russia's powerful long-range warfare capabilities, then they will significantly reduce the risks for the European continent. The logic is simple, but the problem is what results of elections in national parliaments and in the European Parliament we see today.

We see a significant increase in positions of ultra-different types: both ultra-left and ultra-right. For example, in France the ultra-left takes first place. There, the key element of this united “New Popular Front” is the ultra-left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. And third place is the far-right Marine Le Pen. 143 mandates is a lot.

Why the ultra-right and the ultra-left? This is not only in France, but also in the European Parliament. Because the world is significantly frightened by the unwillingness of classical political elites to make correct, quick decisions. What is the right quick solution to prevent Russian aggression? Very simple – defeat Russia. To do this, you need an appropriate amount of weapons of various types – defensive or offensive.

Under what conditions can Russia attack NATO

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, according to information available to NATO, Russia is not preparing for the possibility of an attack on member states of the Alliance. According to him, Russia will not have the opportunity for such an attack simultaneously with the war in Ukraine.

Russia, if it does not lose, on the contrary, it will increase investments in the military component, propaganda, cyber attacks, and hybrid manifestations of its aggression. That is, there will still be bridgeheads where Russia will conduct active military operations. The only way for Russia to continue to exist, if it does not lose and transform today, is only expansion.

Stoltenberg should have continued, saying, “today we do not see the potential for deploying a second front against NATO countries, but if Ukraine does not win the war, we see such a potential, so Ukraine must be given everything, “red lines” no longer exist – everything conventional must be in Ukraine in sufficient quantities.”

If Russia does not lose, Putin may attack on NATO/Getty Images

The mathematics of war is a certain parity, because Western weapons, NATO weapons, are much more high-tech. They can perform greater tasks in smaller quantities than Russian weapons, which are Soviet, old, adapted.

That is, up to a certain point, the logic works correctly, and then it stops. If everything is as Stoltenberg says, then two mandatory decisions should be made to prevent this from happening:

• Russia will definitely attack NATO if it does not lose;
• we must supply the appropriate amount of weapons to Ukraine.

What will happen if Russia does not lose the war

Russian propagandist Andrei Gurulev said that every day for Ukraine the conditions for negotiations will change for the worse. It is clear that the goal that stood before Russia from the very beginning was destruction. Russia only understands the language of the losses it suffers in this war. Accordingly, when will we be given permission or the ban will be lifted to strike deep into Russian territory at military targets?

Gurulev is not a person who influences anything, but this is the concept of this war accepted at the official level (destruction of Ukraine – Channel 24). Any negotiations (which Russia proposes – Channel 24) are some kind of strange fake and a readiness to lead a large country to genocide. Russia has set itself the key task of destroying Ukrainian statehood. It hasn't gone away.

Russia frankly, through the mouths of Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, says that even if they sit down at the mythical negotiating table, they will continue to attack Ukraine with missiles. Because as soon as they sit down at the negotiating table, they will understand that there will be no legal consequences for them from this war.

Russia today is in a negativistic internal condition. They hate Ukraine fiercely – this is their internal consensus. If they don't lose the war, they will destroy us anyway. That is, there are no other scenarios here. There is no Korean scenario, freezing the conflict and so on. This is all fiction.

Russia came (to Ukraine – Channel 24) with specific goals. She did not realize these goals. Given the type of war, Russia does not pay attention to the losses it suffers. Yes, it’s already becoming difficult for her, for example, with the economy. It is obvious. But she doesn’t pay attention to this, because she understands that a little more and she will put pressure on global space, and will have the opportunity not to lose the war.

And then what remains is the concept of the return of the Soviet Union in the full sense. That is, actual, legal and any other control over the space that the Soviet Union previously occupied. The key here is just such a bridgehead space, which today is sovereign Ukraine. Russia needs Ukraine to be under total control, that is, there should be a zone of full occupation.

What goal will Russia achieve after the complete occupation of Ukraine? Two thirds (population – Channel 24) must either disappear, or flee to the West, or they will be deported deep into Russia. The central and eastern territories will be completely populated by the so-called civilian occupiers, that is, citizens of Russia.

This concept has not disappeared anywhere. Russia is ready to continue the war to implement this concept. As soon as they manage to do this, Russia’s status in the global space will significantly increase. This will be a country that everyone will definitely fear. It will dominate the global political process. Everyone will focus on Russia, because they will understand that Russia is a willful country. She can use any number of weapons at any time, kill any number of civilians in any country.

You understand what will happen? Russia also understands this. Unfortunately, not everyone else has understood yet, and therefore they continue to pretend that we can freeze this time. Allegedly, NATO countries are adapting to new threats, Ukraine is adapting to new threats. And who told you that Russia at this time will wait until you adapt to new threats? Russia will not be able to exist in any other way than through expansion. I emphasize once again that expansion can be of different formats.

By the way, the same Stoltenberg says that today they see a significant increase in hybrid challenges facing NATO countries. What are hybrid challenges? This is interference in the political process, a significant increase in it on the part of Russia. This is interference, so to speak, in military production, attempts through sabotage. These are terrorist acts, an attempt to organize large-scale unrest.

This will all increase significantly. I'm not even talking about propaganda, media programs, attempted mass corruption among political elites, and so on. This is all already happening. But if the conflict freezes, it will be scaled 10 – 100 times.

What are the consequences of Orban and Modi's visits to Moscow

The visits of Viktor Orbán and Narendra Modi to Putin yielded at least some results?

No, there are no results. Referring to the words of the President of Ukraine, Hungary certainly cannot be a mediator in anything, because this is not the level of this country. It is much smaller than the global challenges facing the war in Ukraine.

Orban addresses slightly different issues. This is a question of Orban’s own subjectivity. He tries to be more than he really is; is trying to gain greater subjectivity within the European Union, to work more speculatively with the EU in favor of Russia or other countries.

It does not affect the issue of war and peace in any way , and will not be able to influence. Everyone understands this. Russia is using Orbán, using his position as President of the Council of the EU solely as part of a large propaganda campaign. Because technologically it was all thought out. He is not going to Ukraine in the status of Prime Minister of Hungary. He waited until Hungary began its presidency of the EU Council. After this, Orban goes to Kyiv, then to Moscow. That is, these are his first actions in the status of chairman.

By the way, this significantly destroys the reputation of the EU. It would be advisable not just to talk with Orban about this, but to take some appropriate legal action regarding, in my opinion, a violation of the mandate. Because not a single European country gave the chairman a mandate to go somewhere and negotiate.

Orban went to see Putin after his visit to Kiev/Getty Images

Regarding Modi, the situation is more complicated. It looks strange, because India has always been considered a country for which peace is conceptual. Coming to Moscow at the moment when Putin is celebrating, when he watches his missiles kill children, hugging him at this moment – looks extremely terrible. In particular, terrible for India's reputation.

And yet, India, using its status as a neutral state, today gets the opportunity to earn a lot of benefits for itself on the speculative market. Unfortunately, many countries continue to do this, and here I will return to your thesis at the beginning. You said that American and European components were in the X-101.

And here's how neutral countries see it? Firstly, they see that many European companies with “white” jurisdiction work in Moscow. They work directly. Moreover, they report receiving excess profits, from which they pay taxes to Russia, from which the war is financed accordingly.

Secondly, they see Russia's chairmanship of the Security Council, and all countries – permanent and non-permanent members that are members of the Security Council – calmly perceive this. They don’t go to the regulations committee, they don’t say that we can’t consider certain issues because Russia uses the right of veto and the like.

Thirdly, neutral countries see all these opportunities to sell missile components to Russia at speculative prices. If European companies sell these components, then why can’t India buy something from Russia at a dumping price?

This is all distorted global space. If it were black and white, there wouldn't be many questions. And believe me, then the same Prime Minister of India would have thought carefully whether, for example, a direct meeting in Moscow with Putin would be beneficial for India’s reputation.

In general, for India, China, for any BRICS country, for any country in the Global South, in the medium-term strategy it is absolutely unprofitable to have close relations with Russia. Because Russia is an outsider country, a very toxic country. She will spread her toxicity to any partnership. But if we talk about short-term strategies, then here you can collect speculative dividends and the like.

In order for this not to happen, even a short strategy, you also need once a clear and understandable position. Here we return to the third instrument of coercion: Russia must be isolated. It must be a rogue state. Otherwise it doesn’t work.

Read the second part of the interview with Mikhail Podolyak soon on the 24 Channel website.