Ukrainian thermal generation lost about 85% of its capacity. Despite statements by some experts, the timing of its recovery remains uncertain.
This is stated in the NV material, which refers to the words of DiXi Group project expert Elena Lapenko.
The situation with thermal generation in Ukraine
The DiXi Group believes that in 2022-2023, electricity consumption in Ukraine, compared to the period before the full-scale invasion, has decreased by 25-30%. In particular, industry reduced consumption by 45%, and population by 16%. At the same time, total generating capacity decreased from 37.6 GW to 18.3 GW.
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Therefore, experts believe that there will continue to be a shortage of electricity in the Ukrainian energy system in the summer of 2024, and have voiced three potential scenarios for this period.< /p>
The first option can be implemented provided there are no new attacks on the power system and moderate temperatures. Then, during peak load hours, the electricity deficit will be 1.3 GW. The LOLP (loss of load probability) indicator will not exceed 21%.
This is the predicted amount of time when available generation power is less than expected load (consumption).
The second option provides for a significant increase in electrical energy consumption due to an increase in average daily temperatures. In this case, during peak load hours the deficit could increase to 2.86 GW. And LOLP will be 28%.
The third scenario at moderate temperatures takes into account new destruction of shunting generation. In this case, the deficit could be 2.8 GW, and LOLP — 35%.
