Russia launched an offensive on Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region in the spring of 2024. At that time, Ukraine was experiencing an acute shortage of human resources and weapons, since aid from the United States was blocked in Congress. But after eight months of grueling advance in the west of the Donetsk region, the occupation forces were still unable to reach Pokrovsk.
This is stated in the material of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's attempts to capture Pokrovsk
The Ukrainian defense, combined with the limited human and material resources of the Russians, forced the Russian military command to abandon the original plan — frontal assault on Pokrovsk.
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The invaders now want to take Pokrovsk from the southwest via Selydove and straighten the front line west of Kurakhovo and north of Vuhledar. Russia recently took Selydove and is now using the capture of Vuhledar to advance on Kurakhovo, but this is costing the Russians significant losses in manpower and armor, as well as months of time.
According to ISW expert and report author Angelica Evans, the use of Ukrainian drones is significantly helping to deter Russian mechanized advances.
— Ukraine's move to prevent the capture of Pokrovsk and force Russia to redirect its efforts to advance on a possibly less important section of the front is a positive indicator of Ukraine's ability to continue fighting this war, — notes Angelica Evans.
Now Russian troops are trying to simultaneously carry out two offensive operations to capture Pokrovsk — by turning through Selidovo and aligning the front line from Pokrovsk to Yasnaya Polyana, in order to create conditions for future victories in the Donetsk region, which may not be as significant from an operational point of view.
Advancement of Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction
Russian troops have been slowly advancing in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovsky directions since March 2024, but have still not had significant success.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to convince the Russian military command to throw forces, equipment, and waste time on less significant places in the west of the Donetsk region.
According to the expert, the advance of Russian troops near Selidovo, the capture of Ugledar, and the further offensive of the Russians north of Ugledar are not yet operationally significant achievements. In addition, this has caused Russia huge losses in manpower and equipment.
It is worth noting that Ukrainian drones also played a decisive role in deterring Russian mechanized maneuvers and attacks along the entire front line and in the Kursk region in 2024. According to Evans, Russia has consistently underestimated Ukraine's use of the latest unmanned systems, which has caused considerable damage to the invaders.
The theory of victory formulated by Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin assumes that the Russian army will be able to carry out and maintain a creeping advance ad infinitum. However, Putin did not take into account that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could inflict losses that would delay or even stop future Russian offensives.
In the West, they say that the enemy's monthly losses in manpower are not covered by mobilization in the Russian Federation. In addition, evidence is emerging that in the medium term, Russia will not be able to sustain the current rate of losses in armored vehicles and tanks.
Ukrainian drone operators, especially in the Pokrovsk direction, have successfully minimized the enemy's mechanized advances. Therefore, Russian infantry is mainly advancing on foot.
Putin's goal is to seize the Luhansk and Donetsk regions
At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin called the complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions a priority goal of the war. Currently, occupation forces continue operations in the Seversky, Chasovoyarsky, Toretsky, Pokrovsky, Kurakhovsky and Velikonovoselkovsky directions.
The Russian Federation also stepped up local attacks in the Velikonovoselkovsky and Seversky directions in October and November 2024, but it is not yet clear whether the Russian military command is ready to allocate human resources to achieve operationally significant successes in these less priority directions.
In 2024, the Russian offensive near Chasovoy Yar stopped, the enemy has not yet advanced to the center of the settlement. ISW previously noted that the capture of Chasovy Yar by the Russians opens up prospects for operationally significant advancement in the Donetsk region for the occupiers.
However, the Russian military command decided to give priority to offensive operations in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhovsky directions, which provide Russian troops with less direct routes to operationally important Ukrainian facilities.
According to Angelica Evan, to date the occupation army has not yet achieved operationally significant successes, given the considerable losses in manpower and equipment.
