Well-equipped Ukrainian troops will be able to prevent significant Russian advances during the enemy's planned summer offensives. But the Russian Army still uses individual advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to the Defense Forces.
This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is noted that Ukraine will likely stabilize its front line in the coming months and will be able to begin limited counter-offensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025.
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ISW analysts about the situation at the front
ISW cited a Western official who told the Financial Times that the Russian army was still ineffective, with outdated equipment and poorly trained soldiers.
Russian troops have not improved significantly since the invasion began in February 2022, according to the official.
At the same time, it is noted that judging Russian military effectiveness only on absolute quality ignores how the Russians are using their temporary comparative advantages over Ukraine to create increasing stress on the Defense Forces.
The enemy occupation army relies in part on its numerical superiority in technology and manpower to put constant pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces. ISW writes that the occupiers are suffering losses that the Ukrainian army could not withstand.
—Russian forces' focus on quantity, regardless of quality, maintains the enemy's tactical advantage. This is especially evident due to delays in the provision of Western security assistance, which has weakened Ukraine's qualitative advantages over Russian troops, — says the report.
It was also noted that this summer the aggressor will use the number of personnel to achieve tactical advantages even against already sufficiently equipped Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The report also notes that Russian forces have significantly changed tactical air operations in Ukraine through the widespread use of glider bombs, allowing aircraft to strike more safely from deep behind the lines.
