After Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy from the presidential race, Kamala Harris entered the arena. How can this change the political situation in the United States, what is the vice president known for and what surprises can we expect from her — read further in the material.
Note that Kamala Harris is not yet officially a candidate for US President. Whether she will be will be revealed next month at the Democratic convention. But the most influential party members have already made it clear that they will support her.
Joe Biden's exit from the race and the picking up of the baton by his Vice President Kamala Harris was a real surprise. Including for Donald Trump, whose rating had just soared after the failed assassination attempt. The change of opponent put the Republican's victory in doubt. And pushed him to new steps to win over voters. Interestingly, the Ukrainian issue is back in focus.
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Who is Kamala Harris really?
The daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India, Kamala Harris became the first black woman to hold the positions of San Francisco District Attorney and California Attorney General, Senator from California, and Vice President of the United States.
— She started her career as a prosecutor, that is, she has this feeling of how to grab, she was a senator from California. She became vice president. She will be fundamentally different from Biden, this is a different generation, this is a different view of things, she is already showing independence in foreign policy matters, — says diplomat, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2014 — 2019) Pavlo Klimkin.
As deputy to the American president, she began a nationwide tour for reproductive freedoms, supporting women's right to abortion. She also dealt with migration issues, but practically did not deal with international politics. Although, from time to time, she commented on security issues on international platforms — in the key of the Biden administration.
As international political scientist Maxim Yali notes, she was Joseph Biden's shadow, absolutely following in the wake of his policies.
According to Viktor Shlynchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy, when Kamala Harris sets out on her own, she will weigh all her steps.
— She will absolutely balance her desires with some normative rules, — he noted.
Harris is highly likely to continue initiatives to strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region — to counter China. She will remain loyal to the United States — Israel and, most importantly for us, will support Ukraine in the war with the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.
She will have 100% more freedom of action than Biden has now. So I think that a lot can be expected from her, if elected. She does not have such a subconscious respect for Russia, since Biden came from the Cold War, became a senator during the Cold War, then the States and the former USSR were on the same level. Such respect, internal, subconscious, the desire to play on some nuances, to take into account what they say in Moscow, this is all a story that does not work for Kamala, — notes Pavel Klimkin.
Will Harris support Ukraine
Harris is younger, more decisive, more energetic than Biden. But will this affect the amount of aid to Ukraine if she comes to the Oval Office? Will these qualities be converted into the amount of weapons and money. Or maybe, under her presidency, Kyiv will be seated at the negotiating table with the Kremlin?
— A lot will depend on who will be around Harris and who will be among her advisers. Harris has her own team, which does not identify itself with the current president's team at all. And here it will be interesting to see who from the former White House team, if she is elected, will remain, who will join Harris's team and who will become vice president. Shapiro has the best chances. He is also such a hawk regarding Russian politics, — notes Viktor Shlynchak.
How Trump reacts to a new rival
Meanwhile, Trump is adding activity! Against the backdrop of the emergence of a new rival, the Republican began to restructure his election campaign. In particular, in our question. If he wins, he seems ready to approve a $500 billion lend-lease for Ukraine and lift all restrictions on the weapons we can get.
— Will try to achieve peace. We see that certain steps are already taking place. I mean the trip of Viktor Orban's Hungarian liaison to key capitals that are directly or indirectly involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. There will be an attempt to reconcile both sides, — notes Maksym Yali.
From all these statements and activities it follows — Ukraine will be in the spotlight during the presidential campaign and after. Candidates have already begun competing to see who will offer the best plan. And now — it's Kamala Harris's turn. The main thing is that everything is not limited to election slogans.
— It's like you know, in billiards. You throw the ball, and then we'll see what happens. Harris definitely won't do that, she'll be more predictable, more understandable to the world. Trump is not a fan of Europe, and Germany in particular, so he'll push Europe aside. He'll have the States. Both administrations will try to speak from a position of strength. Trump will be much more unpredictable, he'll strive for faster decisions. Harris will try to build a more or less predictable history of pressure, — said Pavlo Klimkin.
Is Harris capable of tougher decisions
As a result, Kamala Harris is a consistent supporter of providing support to Ukraine. And an anti-Putinist. Therefore, a change in course towards Russia is out of the question. It's in the strategic interests of the United States. But is it capable of making tougher decisions?
— I think it is. Whether it is capable of forming a new powerful package will depend on who controls the Senate and Congress, — says Pavel Klimkin.
And this is the traditional fuse against political antics and spontaneous decisions of American presidents. The second — deeptape, an influential political establishment that controls the situation and will not let it go beyond the permissible limits.
Who has a better chance of winning the election
As for the candidates' chances, they are now actually 50/50. The fluctuation is minimal. Donald Trump is ahead of his likely competitor by two points — 46 to 44. These are the results of a YouGov poll for The Times. Everything can change in more than three months.
— Trump has a better starting position, especially after the failed assassination attempt. His support is in key states. We recall 2016, when Hillary Clinton, another woman who competed with Trump, received an advantage of 2 million votes, but this did not affect her victory, that is, the victory will be determined in key states. So far, opinion polls are in them and Ohio, for example, where there is a vice-presidential candidate elected by Trump among these states, Trump has an advantage there, — says Maxim Yali.
Other experts give Harris more chances. They say that Trump has hit an electoral ceiling.
— Harris' team still has a few technological aces up its sleeve. Let's start with the fact that it cannot be ruled out that, for example, a month before the elections, Harris can become a full-fledged president of the United States. Although Biden said that he will remain until the end of his term, but this cannot be ruled out. And the current US president will have at least plus 1-2 points to the sociology that we have now, says Viktor Shlynchak.
During a period of geopolitical turbulence, clashes and wars, the situation will not be predictable until the last minute. And during this time, new challenges may arise. But whichever of the two candidates comes, he will keep the Ukrainian issue in focus.
— With Trump, on the one hand, we have much more risks, but I think there are also more chances, although with Harris, it seems to me, we may have new chances and new opportunities. Biden, he has done a lot for us, we must admit it. Will Harris be weaker than Biden? No, I don't feel it, — adds Pavel Klimkin.
It seems that isolationism in foreign policy is no longer in trend. And even Trump is gradually abandoning it. Too many threats. The main thing is that calls for building a global security architecture and fighting aggression by dictatorial countries are not only in pre-election rhetoric.
