Putin's troops must somehow hold out until May 9 to give him the illusion of a holiday/Getty Images< p _ngcontent-sc126="" class="news-annotation">Now in the Russian segment, the so-called second phase of the “special operation” with the theoretical exit of the Russian occupation troops to the borders of the unrecognized Transnistria is being rather vigorously discussed.
We are not there
This issue is being actively discussed “special operation”, the second phase. Especially against the background of how on the morning of April 25 there was an unexpected “pop” at the oil depot in Bryansk.
Everyone understands perfectly well that Ukraine has nothing to do with this “cotton”. We do not have such missile weapons that could hit Russian infrastructure facilities of critical importance at such a distance. Therefore, it really was an unfortunate incident – perhaps someone lit a cigarette near the oil depot, threw a cigarette butt in an unauthorized place.
Well, yes, there was the sound of a rocket. But we should all be well aware that Russia is now embarking on large-scale provocations in order to accuse Ukraine of attacks on its territory and in fact justify this unsuccessful invasion of our territory, which is now ending in a fiasco for the occupying forces.
Therefore, I repeat once again – they go to any lengths in order to directly stage the alleged invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of Russia or attacks on the territory of Russia by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It wasn't us.
So, we figured out that the fire at the Transneft Bryansk Druzhba oil depot, in fact, has nothing to do with Ukraine. Although, in principle, there was still a fire, “cotton” at the 120th arsenal of the GRAU of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which for some reason is stubbornly silent. But we have nothing to do with this either.
Unfulfilled wishes of the occupiers
I would like to talk about something else. Again, the second phase of the invasion of Ukraine, let's call it that, the second phase of the “special operation.” What it is? There is so much talk about her now. In fact, this is the seizure of the territories of Ukraine, which the Russian Federation failed to capture in the first days of its full-scale invasion, but this is the goal that it left.
Let me remind you that initially the goal of the occupation of Ukraine for the Russian occupation forces was to seize territories from Kharkov to Odessa with access to Transnistria.
Literally, you know, on the eve of this invasion, I gave an interview to one of the Western media, to which I directly painted this scenario: if the Russian Federation invades to Ukraine, it will not be limited only to ensuring the supply of water to the Crimea, that is, the capture of Kakhovka, Novaya Kakhovka and direct control over the water canal, but will also move to Transnistria, since it needs this corridor with the appendix of the “Russian world”.
< p>And so it, in principle, should have been, but it did not happen. Why? Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine practically leveled all the offensive actions of the Russian occupation contingent, in fact, in the bud.
The great battle for Donbass is becoming a disgrace to Russia
What do we see now? What situation? We must now distinguish between two bridgeheads – these are the South and the Donbass. Obviously, things are going very badly for the Russian occupation forces in the Donbas bridgehead. They are advancing in their massive offensive very slowly. In fact, so slowly that it can be assessed as the intensification of preparations for a large-scale offensive. But this would be so if we did not know the most important thing, namely, the Russian Federation does not have the resources for a full-scale offensive on absolutely none of the bridgeheads.
That is, in fact, this sluggish advance, which we have been observing for almost a week and a half in the Donbass bridgehead, is their big battle for Donbass. A big battle from the last resources that they had left.
In particular, this refers to the 5th Combined Arms Army, which is being pulled from the Eastern Military District. Until now, and, I want to note, they are pulling, they have not completely dragged all the units that will have to participate in this great battle for the Donbass. They are now concentrating just in the direction of the offensive from the Izyum bridgehead.
But I'll tell you this: what is the fifth combined arms army, even by the standards of the Russian army? It's not even second class. If this army army is called the third grade, then yes, it will be so. But precisely by the standards of the Russian army. And what is the Russian army by international standards, I think, is not worth talking about. So what do we actually mean? A second-rate accumulation of forces and means that will be used in the epic battle for the Donbass? Yes, it really is.
They achieve some situational success in some areas. But what is this success? This is the success of some of the settlements and villages that they manage to occupy. On the other hand, what happened, for example, in the Chernihiv, Kyiv and Sumy regions? And it was that they went pretty quickly and very deep, having lost any possibility of logistical support for their units, after which our territorial defense and MTR simply began to smash them in the rear and smash them at the front.
Now we can see a slightly different situation – the Armed Forces of Ukraine are blocking their further advance to the Donbass to the maximum, and where it is fraught with heavy losses (both human and technical), this resistance stops, retreats a few kilometers, gives way to the line, and for the time being they occupy new frontiers, again, Russian occupiers, at this time they are being sausageed by artillery 24/7.
As for the direction in the Kharkiv region, everything is very interesting here. Just the other day, we learned that several villages were liberated precisely in the northern direction from Kharkov. Very interesting situation from Kharkov in the northeast direction. That is, in fact, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine implement a sufficiently successful counter-offensive, then the occupational group of many thousands in the Izyum region will be surrounded. And then the meaning of the whole great battle for the Donbass? There is absolutely no point. In fact, they are in a stalemate in the Donbass. And what do they want?
Victory or defeat day
First of all, they seek to stretch until May 9 without serious defeats with a demonstration of any activities. Why is this so important to them? So that Vladimir Putin on Red Square, if he decides, of course, to go to Red Square, would not look so lowered and humiliated during the reception of the parade. But no – after all, the word “lowered” is better quoted here than “humiliated”. Ukraine lowered the Russian army, lowered the Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin directly by 100% and even by 146%.
But we move on. May 9, as you understand, is, to a certain extent, a critical data countdown. That is, until May 9, they will hold their positions as much as possible and demonstrate maximum activity. And, of course, in the direction of Mariupol.
Unfortunately, this is fraught with the fact that in the occupied territories the pressure on the Ukrainian population that exists in these territories, the terror of the population, will increase significantly. What this is fraught with, you understand very well – numerous war crimes. And morally, psychologically, you really need to be prepared for this.
Now the Southern bridgehead, something that has been talked about so much lately, is an exit to Transnistria. An exit to Transnistria is, of course, possible with the occupation of the Nikolaev and Odessa regions. But that's the question: does Russia now have the resources for this? Of course not.
And we see this even in the situation that is now unfolding in the Kherson region. Russian units are accumulating forces and means, resources in order, first of all, to hold their positions. These resources are not enough for the offensive. And, as you understand, they want to capture two fairly large areas. Moreover, the main outpost of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is now actually located in the Mykolaiv region, which eliminates all attempts by the Russian invaders to break through and move beyond the Kherson region.
In order to implement the project with access to Transnistria, the Russian Federation needs to accumulate a strike force of 30 to thousands of people (exactly the one that will be directly involved in the offensive). They don't have this group. And not just a numerical grouping – we also need professional training of the grouping that will participate in such a forced march (let's call it that).
And their professional military is becoming less and less every day. All sorts of reservists and rabble, which is mobilized in the Russian Federation itself, as well as in the occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. More often forced, by the way, I want to say. And the one who goes voluntarily, well, let's say, he's not even third-class, it's not even worth taking into account. This is shooting and live meat – nothing more. Shooting in the forefront.
Therefore, in fact, they have no offensive potential in order to reach Transnistria. But again, the date is May 9th.
May 9 is the date until which the Russian invaders must keep the Kherson region under their control. And then – oh, the barn is on fire, the hut is on fire. The fact is that it is May 9 that will become the decisive date for the retreat, for the flight of the Russian occupiers from the territory of Ukraine. And it is precisely on it that we should be guided.
The missile war will be long
In addition, we must understand that the Russian Federation will not stop shelling our cities with missile weapons. They have enough old, Soviet missile weapons. We see how they use P-800 missiles, Kh-101, Kh-55 missiles, etc. in Odessa. They have a certain number of Caliber cruise missiles, they have a certain number of Iskander OTRKs. But this quantity is already becoming scarce.
But this is not even the point: they have “Caliber”, they do not have “Caliber” – they already have enough missile weapons from the time of the Soviet Union. But again, we are now talking about quality, about the likelihood that this missile will be shot down with a higher probability than, for example, the Caliber cruise missile, etc. That's another question.
You just need to be mentally prepared for the fact that rocket attacks on cities will become more frequent. Not just in order to destroy some infrastructure, but in order to put pressure on the population, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the authorities. The Russian Federation believes that it will be able to achieve something with such blackmail. In fact, no.
In fact, such shelling, rocket strikes, as well as the death of the civilian population generates even greater hatred, in addition to the one that is already present towards the Russian occupiers. Nothing but deep hatred, which is almost already part of our DNA code. It will not be eradicated by generations. Therefore, each such shelling only aggravates the position of the Russian Federation itself.
Well, actually, May 9th. May 9, remember, this will be a turning point in virtually the entire so-called “special operation” of the Russian Federation. Since after this date they will no longer have the opportunity to really demonstrate any great battle for the Donbass or any big victories.
They will not even be able to hold the territories after everyone reports to Vladimir Putin about that we arranged a holiday for you, you have actually defended your post on Red Square, and now we are turning back. Glory to the Nation!
