Ukraine has the potential to restart the initiative in 2023, despite what is happening now in Bakhmut. Sufficient and timely support from the West will help in this.
This was reported at the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts say Russia does not have large combat-ready reserves.
How Ukraine has the potential to renew the initiative
U.S. President Joe Biden visited Kiev on February 20 and met with Volodymyr Zelensky.
Biden's visit and trips to Europe are clear evidence of continued Western support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials continue to react to statements about the pace and prospects of war. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on February 20 that Ukraine would continue to defend Bakhmut, but “not at any cost.” Our leader and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov also emphasized that Ukrainian forces continue to prepare for a counter-offensive in the near future. , who said the United States was concerned about Ukraine's ability to defend Bakhmut while conducting counter-offensive operations, the analysts noted.
The ISW continues to assess that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is a strategically sound attempt to pin down Russian troops on a separate sector of the front and break them, and Zelenskiy has likely softened his administration's stance on Bakhmut in order to make a limited rhetorical concession to US officials.
“It has long been clear that Ukraine will not continue to defend Bakhmut, risking seeing a large number of Ukrainian troops surrounded by the city, so Zelensky's comment is unlikely to be a real change in Kiev's strategy,” the ISW stressed.
In particular, a member Committee of the Verkhovna Rada on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Fedor Venislavsky stated that Russia has “all combat-ready units on the line of confrontation in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, partly in the Zaporozhye region”, confirming the assessment that Russia does not have large unused combat-ready reserves, which can be deployed and changed the course of operations.
These Ukrainian statements are consistent with the ISW assessment that Ukraine has the potential to restart the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely support from the West, – analysts added.
Ukraine can win already in 2023
Vladimir Zelensky recently said that o Ukraine will definitely win the full-scale war that Russia launched against it almost a year ago. This can be achieved as early as 2023 if two important conditions are met – to maintain unity and places from within and without.
