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Western partners' support for Ukraine had a great impact on the course of the war. Kyiv needs more weapons to recapture the occupied territories.
This is stated in the daily report of the Institute for the Study of War. They emphasize that delays in providing Ukraine with Western long-range fire systems, advanced air defense systems and tanks have limited the ability of the defense forces to use opportunities for larger counteroffensives.
Ukraine needs Western support
Analysts say the West's wartime hesitancy over arms deliveries did not sufficiently address the perceived demand to move Ukraine from Soviet systems to Western systems once partners pledged to help Kyiv repel an invading Russian force in 2022.
< p>The report notes that if the West had begun supplying Ukraine with the equipment needed for long-term counter-offensive operations when the Russian offensives were culminating, Ukraine could have started these counter-offensive operations earlier.
If the West had begun work on the complete transition of Ukraine to Western systems, when the need for this became obvious in the summer of 2022, conditions could be created allowing Ukraine to continue counter-offensive operations after Kherson and thereby deprive the Russians of the opportunity to regroup their forces and try to regain their initiative.
They believe that the West's delays in providing Ukraine with the material resources necessary for this, on the contrary, “had an avalanche-like impact on the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct and support counter-offensives.” At the same time, the occupying forces took advantage of these delays to “close the windows of vulnerability” caused by their own defeats and incompetence, mobilizing manpower and equipment and beginning to rationalize their forces. So they resumed their offensive on Bakhmut.
The Russians are preparing for an offensive in the Luhansk region
Analysts say the West’s recent commitments to provide Ukraine with tanks and armored personnel carriers it needs for further counter-following operations are important, but delays in fulfilling these obligations could cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces the opportunity for a counter-offensive this winter.
Russian forces are allegedly preparing to launch their own offensive in the Luhansk region and are intensifying operations in the Bakhmut region.
Note that if Ukraine does not yet have the equipment necessary to launch a counteroffensive, then it may have to wait many weeks until Western tanks arrive in sufficient numbers to support the recovery effort.
The delay is likely to be extended due to weather conditions. Both Russians and Ukrainians will have to factor in the spring thaw season, which is likely to occur in March and April, making it difficult, if not impossible, for a quick mechanized counteroffensive.
What will help Ukraine retake its territories
Ukraine may have to wait until the end of spring or early summer before resuming its large-scale efforts to liberate a strategically important territory. Current Russian offensives could lead to greater success, experts emphasize.
Military analysts assure that the West will need to avoid the erroneous conclusion that future Ukrainian counter-offensives are impossible based on the time frame caused by its own delays in providing material and meteorological conditions.
ISW continues to believe that Ukraine can liberate critical territory with the current and promised levels of Western support, and that it is a matter of vital national interest for Western partners for Ukraine to achieve this.
