On Monday, January 20, the inauguration of Donald Trump will take place, who will become the 47th President of the United States.
The pompous ceremony, which will last all day, will attract almost the entire world press. However, the greatest attention will be paid to Donald Trump's inauguration and his inauguration speech, which will determine Donald Trump's course during his second presidential term.
Why is Donald Trump's inauguration important, how will the new US president be able to influence the world and the Russian-Ukrainian war after taking office, and will Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky be present at the ceremony — read on ICTV Fakty.
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Inauguration of US President Trump: the importance of the event
Political scientist Olesya Yakhno says that the inauguration is an important event, first of all, for the Americans themselves, given the domestic political problems of the United States.
However, for Ukraine and other countries of the world, besides the United States, the context of America's global leadership and how the actions of this state in the international arena will change, in particular, regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, is important.
— For us and the whole world, this has not only a symbolic meaning, but also from the point of view of the specifics that Trump will introduce into US policy. Despite the fact that Europe is now showing great activity (in the world, — Ed.), everyone is waiting for certainty from the United States, — she says.
According to political scientist Olesya Yakhno, the aspect of who will be present at the event itself and what Donald Trump will say is important, since his statements during the inauguration will largely determine the future vector of actions of the American presidential administration.
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However, of course, the main thing is that after the inauguration, Trump will take office, which will allow him to make direct decisions regarding the future of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
— We have already seen that the arrival of Trump's special representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is being postponed a little. But despite this, he (Kellogg, — Ed.) there is a statement that within 100 days the future Trump administration plans to propose a solution that will concern Russia and Ukraine.
This means that active work in this area will begin virtually immediately after Trump takes office. Therefore, it is important for us not to waste time here and to use any opportunities to establish cooperation, — says the political scientist.
The very fact that the world's attention is riveted to the inauguration indicates that the topic of the American presidency and Trump's personality dominates the global media space.
Trump's inauguration and the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky
In the past, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he plans to attend the inauguration of the new American president.
At the same time, Donald Trump later said in a conversation with the press that he had not officially invited the Ukrainian president to the ceremony, “but if he wants to come, I would like him to come,”, Trump said.
The head of the Ukrainian state later said that it was important for him to receive an invitation to Trump's inauguration ceremony, primarily from a security standpoint.
Volodymyr Zelensky also said that he expected closer cooperation with the Donald Trump administration after the inauguration. In addition, the Ukrainian president also said that the Ukrainian and American teams had agreements on a meeting of the two leaders in the United States after the official ceremony on January 20.
In a commentary to ICTV Fakty, political scientist Oleg Saakyan points out that, in general, Trump's team decided to approach this time with a “not quite a classical approach”.
— They do not invite friends, but invite not quite friends and use this as a certain political asset. This is similar to a certain Machiavellianism, a cynical policy, when the invitation occurs not in the model of cooperation, but in the model of strict relations of dependence and negotiations, — the political scientist points out.
According to Sahakyan, Trump is acting within the framework of the buy-sell model regarding the inauguration, which is similar to the deals that are inherent in the Republican himself.
— When inviting Xi Jinping, Trump understood that he would refuse and this would create an asset for him. By not inviting Zelensky and then saying that he can come himself, they are playing the Ukraine card in a favorable light for themselves in terms of preparing potential negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian war, — points out Saakyan.
For Trump, the political scientist continues, inviting the Ukrainian president to the inauguration would be a step towards Ukraine, which would change the status quo, when Trump is trying to become a mediator between Kiev and Moscow.
At the same time, the expert points out, the Ukrainian diplomatic apparatus should mobilize its efforts to ensure that President Zelensky attends the inauguration, if possible.
— If that fails, the absence of the Ukrainian president at the inauguration should be replaced by one of Zelensky's first visits to Trump, — believes Saakyan.
Political scientist Olesya Yakhno agrees with this assessment, adding that even in the absence of President Zelensky at the ceremony, Ukraine can take advantage of the inauguration, in particular, in a non-public manner — through diplomats.
— The more specific our proposals are, and the more active our diplomatic work is, the more important it is for us to establish these close ties, — she says.
Yakhno adds that after the inauguration there will be many different events, both public and non-public, where the Ukrainian side will be interested in a meeting between Trump and Zelensky as soon as possible and a move towards specifics regarding what peaceful steps could be taken in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
What to expect after Trump's inauguration and how it will affect Ukraine
Before taking office, Donald Trump made many loud statements and promised to make quite a few decisions as soon as he becomes president. According to press reports, in the first days of his term, the 47th US President will issue about a hundred decrees, in particular regarding the internal problems of the United States with migration and decrees that will concern the strengthening of the border with Mexico.
In the past, Trump said that “will make heads spin” how quickly he issues executive orders after taking office.
As Reuters reported, many of Trump's executive orders will be aimed at strengthening immigration controls and fulfilling his promise to deport illegal immigrants from the United States on a large scale.
Trump may also cancel temporary programs that were introduced during the presidency of Joe Biden, which allowed hundreds of thousands of migrants from a number of countries to legally enter the United States and obtain work permits.
At the same time, the WSJ newspaper wrote that Trump's team plans to carry out a series of anti-immigration raids in major US cities, starting with Chicago, the day after the inauguration.
RACINE, WISCONSIN — JUNE 18: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Festival Park on June 18, 2024 in Racine, Wisconsin. This is Trump's third visit to Wisconsin, a key swing state in 2024. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
According to political scientist Oleg Saakyan, it is worth expecting that after the inauguration Trump will begin to make decisions on personnel changes en masse.
— A fundamentally different policy of the United States will already receive its support and its implementation. Personnel changes will begin, dialogues with partners in Western countries will begin, where Trump will look for levers of pressure for the United States, — he says.
The political scientist points out that under Trump, certain institutional conflicts may take place, because a Republican can interfere in the area of institutions where he will not have authority.
— Tough negotiations will begin, in particular, with some partners from the West. Accordingly, the production of certain duties and special economic regimes will be accepted by Trump. But for personnel changes, the most expected and interesting will be changes in personnel in the sphere of national security and defense: from the Pentagon to the special services, — the expert believes.
According to the political scientist, personnel changes in the US intelligence services and the Pentagon may affect, in particular, Ukraine's receipt of intelligence data and other information that is important to Kyiv in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
— For Ukraine, there is a risk that this could range from a local to a larger-scale collapse of both individual processes and entire institutions. And this could affect the influence of those that occur in real time: the exchange of intelligence data and other information.
All of this could become hostage to an institutional crisis that Trump could provoke. I would not absolutize these risks, because these manifestations will be isolated and not immediately noticeable, but even this is enough to already talk about the possibility of these risks, — says the political scientist.
As Sahakyan points out, all the military aid that Biden accepted for Ukraine before Trump came to the White House will likely continue to flow to Ukraine. However, what has a short shoulder in matters of deliveries to Kyiv may have problems.
If those responsible for monitoring compliance with the sanctions that the US has imposed on Russia are fired, this could also ease the pressure on Putin. Accordingly, this could create challenges for Ukraine as well, since it would increase the Kremlin's economic opportunities.
— But for now it looks like a total crisis is not worth expecting. There is the US Congress, the upper and lower Houses, which will have a serious say in personnel appointments, — the political scientist adds.
Political scientist Yakhno points out that for Ukraine it is important not only how Trump will make Russia move towards peace, and whether he will be able to sit Russian dictator Vladimir Putin at the negotiating table. What is more important for Kyiv is what security guarantees Ukraine will receive if the Russian-Ukrainian war is stopped.
Inauguration of Donald Trump: What to Expect in the World
Separately, political scientist Yakhno points out that the world is now hearing from Trump many statements not only regarding domestic policy or Russia's war against Ukraine, but also controversial attacks on Greenland and Canada, where, according to the Republican's logic, the territories of these countries should join the United States.
After the inauguration, Yakhno continues, it will become clearer what Trump will actually do in relation to these countries and what mechanisms of influence he will have if he really wants to expand the territory of the United States. It will also be clearer how the world order will change if the democratic hegemon of the United States decides to annex the territories of other democratic states.
— How does Trump's team see these steps specifically? How will it work with the Russian-Ukrainian war? What tools are there to force Russia to move towards peace? But not only Ukraine, I think that Europe has high expectations regarding this, because this will concern not only security in terms of the US role in various security structures, — adds the political scientist.
To summarize, political scientist Yakhno says that many expect Trump to be clear and understand what he plans to do next and how Trump's loud statements about the Russian war against Ukraine, Greenland, Canada, migrants in the US, relations with China, and economic and other steps that the Republican decides to take will coexist with reality.
The inauguration of the 47th US President Donald Trump may partially answer all these questions.
