The Economist called Donald Trump the biggest threat to the world. It is noted that if he wins the 2024 elections in the United States, irreversible processes will be launched in the United States and the world, from which Ukraine may also suffer.
The author of the article began his material with the words – A shadow hangs over the world.
“In all this time, no one has overshadowed our analysis as much as Donald Trump is overshadowing 2024,” the author writes. The material was decorated with a collage in which the shadow of Trump’s profile hangs over the planet.
It is noted that Trump is dominating the Republican primaries and, according to polls, he is ahead of Joe Biden in swing states. Over the next 12 months, a mistake by either candidate could determine the outcome of the race.
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The publication writes that this is a dangerous moment, that a person like Trump is again knocking on the door of the Oval Office. The Economist says “US democracy is in trouble.”
The United States faces increased hostility abroad from Russia in Ukraine, Iran and allied militants in the Middle East, and China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. These three countries (Iran, Russia and China) are coordinating their efforts and sharing a vision of a new international order in which might is right and autocrats are safe.
It is noted that Republicans have been planning Trump's second term for months and it will be more organized.
Trump will not be limited in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism and theatrically extravagant deals. It's no surprise that the prospect of a second Trump term fills parliaments and boardrooms with despair. But desperation is not the plan. The time has come to impose order on the alarm,” the publication writes.
Trump poses a threat to the United States
The author of the article believes that Trump poses the greatest threat to his own country. In pursuing his enemies, Trump will wage war on any institution that stands in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice.
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The publication cautions that Trump's victory will also have a profound impact abroad. China and its friends will rejoice that American democracy is not functioning. If Trump neglects justice and civil rights in the United States, his diplomats will not be able to proclaim them abroad.
— The Global South would confirm its suspicion that American calls to do what is right are in fact just an exercise in hypocrisy. America would become just another great power, the article says.
Trump's plans for a second term will be more destructive. He and his aides are considering introducing a universal 10% levy on imports, more than triple current levels. Even if the Senate holds it back, protectionism justified by an expansionist view of national security will lead to higher prices for Americans.
Trump also boosted the economy during his first term by cutting taxes and handing out Covid-19 relief payments. America has budget deficits that only happen during times of war, and debt servicing costs are higher. Tax cuts will promote inflation, not growth.
Trump's second term will be different when it comes to foreign affairs because the world has changed. Trump's thirst for deal-making and his sense of America's interests are not limited by reality and are not associated with values, the newspaper writes.
Trump Foreign Vector
In Trump's view, America is wasting blood and treasure in Europe, which is why he is threatening to “end the war in Ukraine in a day” and break up NATO, perhaps abandoning the US commitment to treat an attack on one country as an attack on all. In the Middle East, Trump will most likely support Israel unconditionally.
In Asia, he may be willing to make a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to give up Taiwan, because he doesn't understand why America would fight a nuclear superpower for the benefit of a tiny island.
But knowing that “the US will leave Europe,” Putin will have an incentive to continue fighting in Ukraine and take over countries that were under Soviet occupation, such as Moldova or the Baltic states. Without pressure from Washington, Israel is unlikely to be able to achieve internal consensus for peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
Counting on the fact that Trump will not support allies, Japan and South Korea could obtain nuclear weapons. China could easily miscalculate Taiwan, with disastrous consequences.
The publication concludes that Trump's second term would be a turning point in a way that the first was not. The election will be decided by tens of thousands of voters in just a few states. In 2024, the fate of the world will depend on their votes.
