The Turkish ruler plays his own game and will play with Russia/Getty Images
The Turks want to take Ukrainian grain out of the ports. The Turks want a 25% discount. The Turks want to moderate the peace talks. How much Turkey…
Unpleasant
Turkish minister meets with Lavrov and echoes Russian narratives that sanctions are bad. Echoes Russian propaganda that sanctions on Russia are exacerbating the global food crisis.
This is annoying. It is unpleasant and nothing more, because it was not the Turks who imposed sanctions, which means that no one cares about their opinion. But it’s unpleasant.
But at the same time, you look at the chart of the Turkish lira, which continues to fly into the abyss and becomes more pleasant.
And who knows if these events are connected…
Two “combinators”
It is important to understand one thing.
When Putin builds the “Russian world” and tries to restore the empire, it hits the economy.
When Erdogan builds a “Turkic world” and tries to restore the empire, this also hits the economy.
The Russian economy is hit by Western sanctions because Putin decided that he was a great historian and military leader and attacked Ukraine. The historian from it is so-so. The warlord is even worse.
Turkey's economy is being hit by the policies of Erdogan, who does not allow the Central Bank to work independently, because he decided that he is a great macroeconomist. Macroeconomist from him sucks. And now in Turkey, inflation is 73% (5 times higher than in Ukraine during the war) and the lira is flying into the abyss.
Why is this happening?
Because both are imperial . And both are building empires led by an emperor. This means that there are no checks and balances.
And with Putin this turns into a war and, even though the Central Bank is run by a professional, the economy suffers. And Erdogan gets into inflation, even if he still wages local wars and does not fall under massive sanctions, and the economy suffers.
The reason is always the same. Lack of democracy. Lack of control. Lack of working institutions. That is why it is so important to preserve democracy.
The fate of a dictator
And this also makes Turkey an extremely unreliable ally. Which can turn around at any time by 180 degrees. Yes, now Putin and Erdogan clashed in Syria and Libya, in the Caucasus and Asia, in the Crimea. But this is a clash of the same people, they are fighting for power and influence. And nothing holds them back. Not the opinion of the people. No value.
And whether Erdogan wants to betray Ukraine at a time when it will be very difficult for him is not known. And yes, we can put up with a 25% discount on grain, especially if the Turks themselves export grain from our ports. But can we trust such an ally? Can we count on him to lower the security of our ports?
Erdogan is in huge trouble. In economics. Turkey may become the next domino in a series of global crisis. And Erdogan has elections soon. And the Sultan can lose on them. What is Erdogan willing to do to win? Is he ready to surrender Ukraine for the sake of this victory? Or is he just desperately wanting to cover the country's currency deficit by earning on Ukrainian grain and Russian oligarchs?
You never know with dictators. They are very costly to their own citizens. And they are not predictable partners. Especially if each of them builds his empire on the sand of the crumbling empires of the past and thinks that you belong to him. The problem with these dictators…
