Belarus has a chance to escape from Russia's embrace/Kremlin
The topic of Ukrainian food has received several continuations in the information field, including in the form of a story about a possible military “security corridor” that a coalition of countries can organize for merchant ships in the Black Sea. And the topic of Russia's allies was no longer developing at the level of informational interventions, but at the level of political events – after the CSTO summit, a meeting between Putin and Lukashenko was held.
It is interesting that there is no specific information about its content and we did not see the results, and the main visualization of meanings was a new meme: “Before the “special operation” and after the” special operation “.
Minsk is in the black
Well, memes are memes, but reality has really changed. I would venture to suggest that the current situation is quite beneficial for Minsk. At first glance, he was drawn into a military adventure, critically increasing his dependence on Moscow and deepening his isolation.
But, on the other hand, one must understand that, firstly, in a war, the stakes rose to such a level that that for world leaders, human rights issues within Belarus, for objective reasons, have faded into the background.
That is, in the current reality, the situation inside the country, which today is a weak and sore spot for the regime.
Secondly, “alliance” is a very conditional thing in the world of realpolitik, and when it comes to one's own survival, it may well pass for a very significant trump card.
Russia has big problems
Russia, in turn, the farther, the deeper he gets entangled in problems that, in a serious way, have not yet begun.
In recent days, there has been a lot of bad news from the East of Ukraine about the battles in the vicinity of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, and this looks unsettling.
But analysis of any level suggests that this confrontation is not close to the level that was announced before the offensive in the Donbass. And, it is very similar to the fact that there is no longer any talk of defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the “big pot”, and the Russian command has focused on “bowlers” in order to get at least some success. And this is in conditions when Lend-Lease has not yet reached Ukraine.
Numerous sources testify that in the Russian elites there are no longer people who would not be dissatisfied with Putin. In Russia, paradoxically, there is an anti-war movement – some arsons of military registration and enlistment offices are worth something.
The situation among real opinion leaders is very difficult for the Kremlin. And this is only the first three months of the war.
Everything suggests that an internal political crisis may indeed ripen in Moscow and even a coup may ripen. For this, one moment is still missing: so that propaganda ceases to affect the majority, that is, so that some drastic changes do not cause popular rejection. When the consequences of madness reach out to every family “downstairs”, the situation can change very dramatically.
Chance for a trade
Minsk, in fact, has a good chance to exchange an alliance, which is becoming more less promising, for some bonuses that allow you to feel calmer in the short term. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if that happens.
It's another matter that it's obviously too early to do this: Putin is still strong and dangerous. Therefore, it obviously makes sense for someone to play for time.
Well, it's a completely different matter that there are still no strategic prospects. The situation is simple and interesting because it has no obvious solutions.
The viability of the Belarusian regime without Russia's support will be very short-lived in the historical perspective. The prospects “with Russia” today look unequivocally as even worse, with the risks of being “out of the game” even sooner than “without”. In the end, it doesn't matter what choice to make. But “without” is also an opportunity to play for time, and then, you see, something else will happen …
