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Almost simultaneously with the announcement of mobilization in Russia and with statements about holding “referendums” in the temporarily occupied territories, the news broke into the information space that the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the transition to defense “according to wartime standards.” But does this mean that Belarus will go on the offensive on the territory of Ukraine?
The fact that Putin's curators once again forced Lukashenka to once again hint at a likely direct participation in the war against Ukraine is quite understandable. According to Channel 24 sources in the Ukrainian intelligence services, the information warfare technologies used by the Kremlin obligated them to raise rates in all areas.
This can include both the holding of “referendums”, mobilization in Russia, and threats of nuclear weapons with strikes against our critical infrastructure. All the statements of the Belarusian Fuhrer about the readiness of his own army quite logically fit into these narratives.
Sooner or later, Belarus will get a war
- By some miracle, Lukashenka managed to avoid his direct participation in the war against Ukraine, but this does not mean at all that “peaceful” and apolitical Belarusians will not have to crawl in trenches and bite into the ground in the hopes that they will not be covered by a rocket fired from HIMARS.< /li>
- The Kremlin is absolutely counting on the fact that at some point the “president” who is completely dependent on Russia will order either a full-fledged attack on our territory, or simply the start of massive shelling along borders.
- Considering that the majority of Belarusians silently reacted to the fact that their country was turned into a springboard for a bloody offensive, and only a few dozen conscious citizens joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one should not count on any resistance of the people to the dictatorship. The maximum that can happen is that several hundred Belarusians will come to prison as a protest and “heroically and voluntarily” go to jail for 15 years, and Tikhanovskaya will announce the success of the “railway terror”.
- Therefore, the desire of Belarusians to fight both Putin and Lukashenka do not care deeply. Both figures do not take into account at all that the people will somehow react badly to making unpopular decisions.
- In addition, even if the Russian command is able to successfully mobilize in the announced numbers, this will not affect the appearance of serious changes on the front line. Therefore, the Kremlin cannot but hope that official Minsk will not join the fight against Ukraine at some point.
Nevertheless, Lukashenka fully understands that without any support from his ally, entering our territory would be equal to death. After all, be that as it may, the army of Belarus is extremely weak compared to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If the Ukrainian Defense Forces kicked in the teeth of Russia, then the potato army can now fill the seeds in the left pocket, and put the bag for the body in the right.
Belarus offensive can cause a lot of harm to Ukraine
At the same time, one cannot say that the entry of another country into the war against our state will not affect the situation in any way. Even a weak army is capable of inflicting a lot of irreparable losses on the enemy. In addition, the Belarusians are unlikely to use any other tactics, except for the same fire shaft. That is, they may well succeed in leveling several settlements.
Also, one should not forget about the reaction of Western countries to such an invasion. According to Ukrainian special services, the closer the victory of Ukraine in this war is felt, the more resolute the actions of our partners are. However, according to some reports, Putin should not count on the fact that, for example, neighboring Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will sit silently if hostilities move along their borders. It is impossible to exclude the possibility that the extremely friendly states will not decide to conduct some kind of peacekeeping special operation in conditional Volyn or even along their own borders. So to speak, they guarantee their security by partial demilitarization of their violent neighbor.
It should be understood that, unlike France and Germany, the countries of Eastern Europe are not afraid of Russia and its henchmen in their current form. Therefore, if the Kremlin dictator finally weakens his army, brave countries will not hesitate because of the possible consequences from Putin in the event of their direct participation in hostilities.
It is impossible to exclude the involvement of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade in the war , whose personnel are absolutely not opposed to forcing Lukashenka to peace. And it is not at all a fact that this powerful unit will enter Belarus through our borders, and the Kremlin will not be able to help its ally in this case.
