Experts have long been discussing the issue of a change of power in Russia. In general, there are three options – a coup in the Kremlin, a military coup and a coup in the country from the people. The Russian oppositionist evaluated each scenario.
Own opinion Channel 24given by the Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov. He stressed that the first and second options are related, because the coup in the Kremlin cannot take place without the security forces. /h2>
According to him, the entire history of the Russian Empire suggests that all coups “relied” on the security forces or the guards.
I strongly doubt a military coup, because the military is not in a position to run the country, they do not succeed. Usually the military try not to take power into their own hands, but try to be such a “driving force,” Gudkov explained.
He assured that if there was a “palace” coup (in the Kremlin – 24 channel), then civilians will take power with the support of the security forces.
But, in his opinion,if the new government does not join the Westwith the implementation of reforms, the formation of interim legislation and removing Putinists from power, nothing will work.
Gudkov suggests that someone from the old elite who does not participate in the war against Ukraine, or the closest circle, who can easily overthrow Putin, may be involved in the coup.
The oppositionist noted, that in generalthere are two options for a coup in Russia – the overthrow of Putin from above or from below.
Can Patrushev's son or Sobyanin to replace Putin
Gudkov said that he did not believe that there would be any transit of power in Russia with Putin alive, the dictator would not give power to anyone, because he would not believe in any guarantees.
This would be a good option, for some period under Western control in exchange for lifting or easing sanctions. Then they could remove Putin and form a new government, the oppositionist believes.
Gudkov suggested that Patrushev or Gerasimov could remove the dictator, but other ministers or officials would not dare to do so. And yet, without politicians, they will not do anything in the country either.
According to him, it is possible to remove Putin from power, a kind of coup within the elite, this will be the safest option, but this may not happen.
Watch the full interview with Gennady Gudkov: video
Can Russian patriots rebel because of “SVO”
Gudkov replied that theoretically this could happen, but there are very few real patriots in Russia.
They are generally active, but they have no intelligence and no leader. These patriots can take power in Russia for a short time and bring the country to a “heart attack”, but they will end there, because they will not be able to feed the people, Gudkov said.
Oppositionist believes that no one will support such patriots. Theoretically, there is such a chance, but it is very insignificant.
“And whom Putin should be afraid of, it is his own elite, his inner circle. And he understands this and does everything so that his own people do not get him and do not “weld” the door of the bunker for a while in order to reformat the government,” he added.
By the way, Russian oppositionists say that after the start of a full invasion of Ukraine, not only Russia is weakening, but also Putin’s influence on the control of domestic political processes The Russian dictator is less and less in control even of the war.
