The day before, Vladimir Zelensky said that if the invaders capture Bakhmut, then Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will be under threat. ISW analysts have already responded to these words.
Zelensky noted that in this case, other critical settlements of the Donetsk region would also be under threat. However, the American Institute for the Study of War believes that at the same time the Russians can also move west of the city.
What they say in ISW about the threat to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
According to analysts, Russian forces lack the ability to use the tactical capture of Bakhmut to operational effect, and this will likely end soon after the capture of Bakhmut.
So, after the capture of Bakhmut, Russian troops will have to choose between two discordant directions of advance. The occupiers may try to move west along the T0504 road towards Konstantinovka (about 20 kilometers from Bakhmut) or northwest along the E40 road towards Slovyansk-Kramatorsk (about 40 kilometers northwest of Bakhmut).
These two potential lines of advance are not mutually supportive, and the degraded Russian forces may have to prioritize pursuing only one to have any chance of success. Although Russian commanders repeatedly stretched their forces in several directions of advance throughout the invasion, analysts emphasized.
The ISW noted that the Ukrainian defenders also heavily fortified both of these routes, which are provided with numerous ground lines of communication that run deep into the Ukrainian rear. Therefore, any attempt by Russia to advance along these roads is likely to be very costly for them.
Why is Bakhmut so important to Russians
Recently, a military expert, a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a major in the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Getman, said that for the Russians, the capture of Bakhmut is, first of all, a political goal, and only then a military one.
According to the expert, the encirclement battles are now continuing, not as intense as before. The Russians are not able to surround the city everywhere, so they are trying to “squeeze out” our servicemen wave after wave, advancing a short distance. But they try to do it all the time.
