Ukraine is capable of mobilizing up to 500 thousand people who can significantly change the situation at the front.
Evgeniy Dikiy, a military analyst and ex-commander of the Aidar battalion, stated this on air at the national telethon Unified News.
He was asked about how realistic it is to mobilize 450-500 thousand people, as President Vladimir Zelensky stated during a press conference.
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According to Dikiy, it is absolutely possible to mobilize such a number.
— This is a rather modest request from the military command. The point is to understand this figure, then… Well, for example, I don’t have secret information from the General Staff. But we all have sufficient information about how our enemies mobilize. And there is a very simple, reinforced concrete logic of war, which lies in the fact that in order to fight with much smaller forces than the enemy, you must have a technological advantage for a generation, — he said.
An example for this is the stationing of the US Armed Forces in Afghanistan, Dikiy noted. At the same time, he admitted that in the Russian-Ukrainian war there is no such difference in technological advantage, and on both sides.
— We must understand that we must send a comparable number of fighters to the front. This is a harsh reality from which we cannot escape. Therefore, this figure of 500 thousand replenishment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then this, I would say, is the minimum requirement, — he said.
Evgeniy Diky notes the issue of the capacity of the mobilization system in Ukraine as a separate issue.
— How much can we miss at once? I think that it is now less than the indicated number, but here we have vast experience in how, with the help of the civilian part of our society, to help the army overcome this barrier. If in Russia the mobilization system is exclusively a state apparatus, then we can get involved and help at all levels, since these are material problems, and a problem of support, and a problem of where to concentrate, — he explained.
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The military analyst believes that with the support of civil society, overcoming all these problems can become real.
— If we are able to recruit these half a million people over the winter for the spring, then we can completely change the situation at the front, — he said.
Changes in mobilization
Dikiy explained that under the capacity of the mobilization bodies of state power there is, first of all, the opportunity to provide a fighter and go the way “from the agenda to the front”, including education, training and other features .
— This is a process that takes 3-4 months, it is very strict. Ideally, this would take six months. I think we need to look for something in between these numbers, — he explained.
He admitted that almost no one in society would be happy about the big mobilization, but “all other scenarios are much worse for us”.
— If we mobilize half a million people now, we will end up losing fewer people, — he explained.
At the same time, Evgeniy Dikiy notes that the deadlines for military service must be determined so that “a person does not buy a one-way ticket”.
— For now, you can demobilize either through a cemetery, or through amputation, — he says.
A military analyst believes that legislation should be changed in the Verkhovna Rada, which would not allow those liable for military service who today live in relatively peaceful cities to ignore registration with military registration and enlistment offices.
— And the choice should be that you go to fight for 2-3 years, but you know that then you will be replaced. And then the one who lived behind your back will come to replace you, no matter how long this war lasts. Or an alternative — you go to prison for 3 or 5 years, then it will be absolutely a choice for ordinary people, — he said.
Question of configuration
Evgeniy Diky also says that the state will be able to provide for Ukrainians who are mobilizing.
— Basic equipment for an infantryman — this is still not a tank for everyone, — he explained.
At the same time, I am sure that the Kalashnikov assault rifles with which the Ukrainians fought off the first invasion in early 2022 will be enough.
— Everything Western (weapons from Ukraine’s partner countries, — Red.) arrived much later, — he said.
Dikiy noted that not all of the half a million mobilized may end up at the front.
— For one soldier there are 11 military personnel at zero (within the army, but not in the front positions, — Ed.). To one “John Rambo” somewhere there was crushing the Russians, then 11 other military personnel provide all the wheels of this machine, which is called the army. Fighter at zero — this is the tip of the iceberg, — he emphasized.
He admitted that in Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale war, this equivalent is from 3-5 military personnel, which provide one person at the forefront of the front.
Recall that earlier President Vladimir Zelensky said that the military leadership of Ukraine plans to mobilize from 450 thousand to 500 thousand people.
The main points from the press conference of Vladimir Zelensky in text and video format can be viewed on ICTV Facts.
