Russia is probably preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. Experts suggest that they are in a hurry to pay back, because they do not want to delay it for six months or a year. Read the article in which direction Russia can launch a new offensive.
The head of the Center for Military Legal Research, Alexander Musienko, told Channel 24 about this. He believes that one of the potential areas where Russia can launch new attacks is the north of the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.
In his opinion, it is this direction is beneficial for Russia to try to “block” the advance of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Kremennaya, because they cannot slow down and stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or “push back” our line of defense.
Therefore, they can do it from the north – move the flank partly in the Kharkiv region in order to pull our Defense Forces there. That is, in fact, to create for us one more direction that would allow the invaders to move towards Liman,” Musienko said.
He believes that this is one of the directions that Russia is considering to resume offensive.
When Russia can launch a new offensive
According to a military expert, Russia will throw everything possible to try to launch an offensive earlier than in six months – a year. “After allUkraine is also getting ready, now we are trying to get the most weapons, later it can be aircraft and long-range missiles,” he said.
So the enemy wants to do everything in order to get ahead of us in this (offensive – Channel 24), counting on the fact that we will spend large forces on defense and will not be able to liberate our territories with new Western equipment, Musienko explained.
He notes that Russia hopes that having outstripped the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the offensive, it will be able to move more actively.
Musienko spoke about a possible Russian offensive: video
APU counteroffensive in response to Russian offensive
A military observer noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost always developed their counter-offensive actions as a response to the offensive of Russian troops. For example:
- it was like this, starting from the defense of Nikolaev, which allowed us to push the enemy back,
- so it was in the Kharkiv region, when the enemy pressed on Slavyansk,
- so it was in the area of Belogorovka, where the enemy was advancing from Lisichansk, and then we repulsed the attack.
In addition, the Russians have a propaganda goal. Musienko said that the propagandists were once again beginning to “victory” through Soledar, but they would not achieve any success.
ISW named the key stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The ISW recalled that Western weapons systems, in particular Javelin, helped Ukraine defeat the onslaught that surged on February 24 and push back the Russian attack on Kyiv to its starting points.
According to analysts, a full-scale Russian invasion to Ukraine can be divided into three key stages:
- initiatives of the occupiers – from February 24 to July 3, 2022 – after the temporary occupation of Lysychanska in early July the offensive of the Russian occupiers in a number of directions reached its culmination;
- counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – from August to the de-occupation of Kherson on November 11. Then the first big counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began on September 6 in the Kharkiv region;
- a period of positional warfare – since then, Ukraine has not been able to launch a new counter-offensive. This allowed the war to move into a positional phase. This stage allowed the occupiers to regain their tactical initiative.
But the ISW adds that the Western aid supply scheme greatly influenced the course of the war.
