Analyst on whether Ukraine will be persuaded to negotiate by Scholz, Macron and Draghi/Channel 24 collage
On the eve of the visit to Ukraine by the leaders of Germany, France and Italy, there was a lot of talk that they would put certain conditions on the Ukrainian authorities, incline them to compromise with Russia, and even blackmail them.
After all, it was Macron, Scholz and Draghi who spoke most of all about “saving Putin's face” and possible territorial concessions to Ukraine, and also blocked the supply of weapons. However, during this visit, they are unlikely to impose any tough conditions on the Ukrainian side. Andrey Vigirinsky, a lawyer and analyst, told Channel 24 about this.
Probably there will be no conditions – only recommendations
He believes that European leaders who arrived in Kyiv today, June 16, can only persuade Ukraine to resume the negotiation process, but there will be no ultimatums.
Vigirinsky noted that in fact our side did not refuse to negotiate. They continued, but, firstly, they reached a dead end, and secondly, during them Russia did not stop its offensive against Ukrainian territories.
“At what stage can the negotiation process continue if the front line changes “If Russia does not take specific actions to stop firing and conducting aggressive actions on the territory of Ukraine?” the analyst says.
Therefore, the expert believes that the agenda of the visit of Macron, Scholz and Draghi to Ukraine will not include concessions, but the issue of resuming negotiations. At the same time, one must understand that for the Europeans negotiations are something much better than their absence. The negotiations, though unpromising, still inspire hope that the parties may reach an agreement.
Negotiations cannot be a condition for blackmail, but only a recommendation and a proposal. European leaders simply cannot lean towards negotiations without understanding the Kremlin's position.
Because what starting point in the Kremlin's negotiating position are they starting from? Recognition by Ukraine of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and the sovereignty of the LPR and DPR? I don’t think that this will be publicly voiced by either Macron or Scholz today,” Vigirinsky believes.
Consequently, they can incline the parties to a universal formula – it is necessary to negotiate, because any war ends with negotiations. But of course.
What Ukraine can offer
Even if we assume that we are talking about certain conditions for Ukraine, these European countries can only offer us not so much weapons. “This is what we need, but it cannot be a prerequisite for a ceasefire on our part. Because weapons are needed not only to defend ourselves, but also to go on the counteroffensive,” the lawyer continued.
“Blackmail” Ukraine with the status of an EU candidate Vigirinskiy also does not consider it appropriate. After all, the candidacy is valuable when the sovereignty of Ukraine is preserved within its administrative-territorial borders.
In the end, offers of concessions are meaningless, because in countering Russia, Ukraine relies not only on the position of the European Union, but also on the position of Great Britain and Poland, which act independently, as well as on the military support of the United States.
Therefore, according to analytics, the voices of Germany, France, Italy are certainly important for us as for a country that still wants to integrate into the EU. But they are not decisive in the context of the fight against the aggressor.
Consequently, it is most likely that the leaders of Germany, France and Italy did not come with conditions and ultimatums, but with a list of problematic issues that are urgent for them and which they consider it possible to solve it.
In particular, we are talking about the export of Ukrainian grain and other foodstuffs. It is in this context, the analyst believes, that a representative of Romania arrived in Kyiv today. After all, today the Romanian port of Constanta is one of the key, if not the only one, through which Ukrainian food can be exported.
