There Will Be No Diplomacy: How the Russians May Respond to the Operation in Kursk Oblast

There will be no diplomacy: how the Russians can respond to the operation in the Kursk region Victoria Grabovskaya

The operation of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region has been going on for more than a week. Despite all the efforts of the Russians, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold their positions. These events can change not only the situation at the front, but also reformat Russia’s diplomatic position.

Political scientist Andrei Vigirinsky said 24 Channelthat one of the consequences of the military operation in Kursk will likely be the cessation of all communications by Russia. It may return to the rhetoric that had been gradually softening.

Not the best development of events

Moscow has repeatedly spoken in recent months about the possibility of holding talks with Ukraine on ending the war.

In particular, Dmitry Peskov stated that the start of negotiations is possible even if, from Russia's point of view, there are problems with the “legitimacy” of the Ukrainian government.

The Kremlin has retreated from this position, and now it may return to it and declare that it does not recognize the government in Kyiv and will not hold any talks with it, suggested Vigirinsky.

Despite the fact that there are no questions about the legality of officials in Ukraine, a situation may arise where diplomatic communication will be absent altogether.

Russia may declare that it will achieve its goals in the war only by military means, this will not be the best development of events. This will lead to the final diplomatic efforts that are being made by other countries of the world, – the political scientist noted.

Accordingly, with such a position, in his opinion, peace summits will not make sense, because China, Brazil and countries that approved of Beijing's peace initiative will not see the point in participating in them

There will be no diplomacy. It is possible that some events will take place, but there will be no hope of resolving the situation, for example, regarding restrictions or a ceasefire. It is not necessary that events will unfold according to this scenario, but these factors must be taken into account, he noted.

If diplomacy is cancelled and the war moves exclusively to the military plane, then Russia will probably lift the restrictions that it had regarding the goals and means of counteraction.

This is not a very optimistic scenario for Ukraine, noted Andrey Vigirinsky.

Let us add that ISW analysts believe that the vector of the war may change after the start of the operation in the Kursk region. Ukraine was able to take advantage of the fact that the Russians were advancing along almost the entire front line, but did not build fortifications in the rear.

Now Ukrainian forces can conduct a series of smaller counteroffensive operations instead of carrying out one decisive one.