A new aggravation has taken place in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Most likely, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved by signing a certain agreement.
This Channel 24 was told by the expert of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, political scientist Igor Tishkevich. He noted that the aggravation occurred after Azerbaijan took control of the Lachin corridor.
What are the interests of the key players
Tishkevich believes that, most likely, everything will end with the conclusion of a certain agreement. But the main question is what will happen next.
Because the interest of key players is the Zangezur logistics corridor, which allows the construction of a railway, roads, the political scientist said.
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According to him, the idea of such a logistics project was discussed after the second Karabakh war. But it was not written into the agreement. Azerbaijan and Iraq are actively supporting this corridor, because it is an unblocking of exports. Supported by Turkey. And it is also in the interests of Russia since it came under sanctions.
The political scientist noted that the only country categorically opposed to this corridor is Armenia. On the territory of the Western world, also against France, which traditionally supports Armenia for reasons of confrontation with Turkey.
Most likely, they will reach an agreement, – Tishkevich believes.
In his opinion, the Zangezur corridor will not be captured, the question of control arises here. The point is who will carry out, in particular, customs clearance and how the goods will go.
Tishkevich suggested how the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh will develop
What is the significance of the Lachin Corridor
Tishkevich noted that Azerbaijan took control of the Lachin corridor, which caused an aggravation.
The Lachin corridor is part of the territory of Azerbaijan from the Armenian border through the city of Lachin to the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. This is the only way connecting the corridor of Armenia with the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said.
The political scientist noted that according to the agreement after the second Karabakh war, this territory should be under the control of the so-called Russian peacekeepers. But some of them went to war in Ukraine. In addition, Russia was not ready for a new escalation, as a result of which Azerbaijani troops entered the city of Lachin, and the so-called Russian peacekeepers simply watched it.
A target is possible shelling of Russian units
Tishkevich also commented on the information about the shelling allegedly from Azerbaijan of any Russian units. There may be several versions of this at once.
Or these objects were located near the place of concentration of Armenian troops. In this case, it could have been the shelling of Azerbaijan,” the political scientist said.
However, he added, it could also have been a provocation by the other side in order to raise the stakes and force Russia to take more active actions.
The escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh: what is known
- In early August, Azerbaijan announced an antiterrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Fighting with the forces of the quasi-republic has already begun.
- Russia has transferred control of the only road connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the Lachin corridor, to Azerbaijan. Putin, and with him Armenia, are losing their influence on the region.
- In the evening of September 12, there were reports of another aggravation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yerevan accused Baku of shelling its own territory with artillery. In Azerbaijan, of course, they had their own view of the night events.
