Yerevan does not want the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh to be agreed behind their backs
Armenia has recently been in direct dependence on Moscow. Therefore, the Kremlin expects Yerevan to provide all possible assistance to its aggressive actions.
The betrayal of Russian Armenians, the forced Pashinyan and the Russian threat to Yerevan – in an exclusive interview with Channel 24, the political consultant, director of the Armenian Research Foundation Suren Petrosyan.
“Putin deliberately destroys everyone”
What is the position of the Armenian diaspora in Ukraine from -for the attack of the Russian Federation?
The Armenian diaspora categorically condemns Russian crimes and military aggression against Ukraine. For Armenian history, the term “genocide” is very painful, and this is a great tragedy for our people. Unfortunately, now we see that the Russian president is committing similar actions against the civilian Ukrainian population.
I call the war “world” because other ethnic groups also live in Ukraine, including Armenians, and Putin deliberately destroys everyone, shelling cities , occupies territories, carries out repressions. The international community must stop this horror.
The Armenian diaspora from all over the world has always lived in peace, but now all communities, without exception, condemn the Armenians in Russia, who supported the war and Putin. They betrayed their people and values.
The diaspora in Ukraine has united and is trying to provide maximum support to our defenders, said the analyst/Photo from the personal archive of the expert
One of the leading public organizations “Mons Pius” is actively cooperating with the Ukrainian leadership, providing humanitarian assistance, organizing routes for the supply of technical equipment, personal protection and food to Ukraine. I can assure you that the Armenians of the whole world are for Ukraine, and the Almighty will be the judge of the traitors from Russia.
Is the Kremlin dragging Armenia into the war in Ukraine and why did the authorities in Yerevan not condemn the Kremlin's aggression?
Definitely captivating. Putin plans to use the CSTO mechanism to include other countries from the post-Soviet space in the war in Ukraine. Since Armenia is temporarily chairing the Organization, Nikol Pashinyan is needed by Putin to initiate the necessary decisions on the platform of the Organization, as was the case, for example, in Kazakhstan.
At the beginning of the war, Putin planned to seize the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the administrative framework and raise the issue of introducing the CSTO peacekeeping mission to them. Russia even saw itself as a coordinating state in these processes and specifically initiated changes to the Charter of the Organization. The involvement of Armenia played an important role.
Now we can state that the Kremlin's plans are frustrated. First, it is not possible to seize Ukrainian territories. Secondly, there is no unity in the CSTO regarding such actions.
According to my information, Nikol Pashinyan consulted on this issue with one of the most influential Armenian diasporas in France and Emmanuel Macron. I received recommendations to play for time and not get involved in the war. In this vein, he acts.
Why didn't he condemn? Unfortunately, the answer is banal and pragmatic. Armenia is economically dependent on Russia, as well as in terms of security – Russian “peacekeepers” are responsible for Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Kremlin can “merge” Yerevan's interests behind the scenes in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Until Russia is sufficiently weakened and has influence in the Caucasus, Armenia cannot act freely. Let's wait and see how the situation will conditionally change in a year.
Armenia has not yet formed its foreign policy
What can you say about Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Russia to meet with Putin?
Unfortunately, I have to admit, Armenia does not yet have the opportunity to shape its foreign policy without taking into account the Russian factor. This was the reason for the Armenian interest in the meeting. Moreover, on the first day of the war in Ukraine, Ilham Aliyev visited Russia, and Yerevan does not want the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh to be agreed behind their backs.
Pashinyan communicates with Putin directly from the beginning of the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine/Photo aa.com.tr
In all other respects, it looks as if Russia needed the meeting more, which is why a thirty-point document on cooperation, atypical for such events, was agreed upon. Take a look at them: the emphasis on transferring settlements to the national currency, increasing trade turnover, strategic partnership.
Russia needs to demonstrate that they allegedly did not fall into isolation and continue dialogue with other countries, it is also important to emphasize their own influence on the processes in the region. The Kremlin also hopes that it will be possible to use Armenia to circumvent sanctions.
Take a look, even at the fact that Putin was sitting next to Pashinyan, and not across a multi-meter table. There is some symbolism in this, supposedly the Russian president is meeting with an ally, but I assure you that Russia's economic and security influence on the situation in Armenia is not eternal, and the Diaspora will make every effort to minimize the existing dependence.
Anti-Russian sentiments are growing in Armenia, because people realize that there has never been real friendship and Yerevan was simply “thrown”.
Russia traded arms with Azerbaijan and Armenia at the same time, inciting war in its own interests. Yerevan understands this, but they cannot instantly break with Russia and force it out of the process. That is why the work is being done gradually. Russian “peacekeepers” may be replaced by others, the OSCE will still intensify its activities, despite the attempts of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to belittle their role, and Armenia will create conditions for its own independent policy. Everything takes time, no matter how much we want results right away.
If Moscow asks Armenia to provide troops, what will be the answer?
< p>I am constantly in contact with representatives of the Armenian government, with groups of influence in the country, all of them are unequivocally against Russian military aggression and on the side of Ukraine. It's just that they can't demonstrate it as brightly as we want in Kyiv. Thus, Armenia may abstain from voting at the UN platform when making decisions favorable to the Russian Federation, but it is simply impossible to break off relations now. no one will be on the side of the aggressor in Ukraine.
The authorities and the population are against this, with the exception of a couple of marginal pro-Russian groups, such as the Armenian Eagles group, whose representatives in the country do not even want to shake hands.
Putin asked Armenia to support the war in Ukraine/Photo by Getty Images
At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia appealed to Armenia to support such actions as Belarus did, but Nikol Pashinyan did not take such a step and will not go. Otherwise, he will not be able to be the prime minister of the country.
Armenia chairs the CSTO, what moods prevail there?
I hope the CSTO will not become Putin's tool in the war against Ukraine, since not everyone has surrendered their own national interests, as Belarus did. Kazakhstan frankly condemns the aggression, Armenia also opposes, confirming the position with its actions. Conscious members of the CSTO understand that they may be next, and Russia's imperialist ambitions are not limited to Ukraine. Nobody wants to help a country that tomorrow may come to your home with weapons.
Although during his visit to Russia, Nikol Pashinyan invited Putin to attend the CSTO summit in the second half of 2022, such a gesture is more symbolic . After such actions by Russia, the CSTO will soon completely discredit itself as an effective and fair security body and will cease to function.
The base in Gyumri: do the Russians use it in the war against Ukraine and does it pose a threat to Armenia ?
As far as I know, due to the lack of people, the Russians wanted to send their troops from Gyumri to Ukraine, but many of them were simply afraid and refused. However, there were individual soldiers who joined in war crimes.
As for the threat to the Armenian national interests, it is undoubtedly difficult not to notice them. The largest Russian military base in the Caucasus can be freely located on the territory of Armenia until 2044, which, together with “peacekeepers”, complements the Russian military presence. Let us recall the base of the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea, which was used to occupy the peninsula. It does not exclude the risks of the Russian leadership to resort to similar attempts to use a military facility in Armenia.
As for me, over time, the Russian military will be expelled from Armenian territory. At the very least, social sentiments for this have existed since 2015, when a Russian soldier shot an Armenian family from the base. It remains to create political and security conditions.
What is the position of the Armenians inside the country regarding the war in Ukraine?
Of course, there are pro-Russian sentiments among the local population, because the propaganda is working and the common Soviet past is taking its toll. However, the conscious population, which is the vast majority, opposes the war. Someone can show their position more actively by going to rallies and protests, someone does not show their support due to passivity, someone hides behind a screen of conditional neutrality.
I am convinced that the population and the government do not will allow Armenia to be drawn into the war, no matter how much Russia would like it.
Relations between Ukraine and Armenia are frankly problematic, do such circumstances affect the position of official Yerevan?
I admit that many politicians in Ukraine interfered in vain in the case of confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, trying to play along with official Baku. Such circumstances affected the deterioration of bilateral relations. Nevertheless, I think that the Armenian government has a rational attitude towards the current situation, and the Office of the President will not neglect the constructive dialogue with Yerevan.
The Armenian side has always listened to the position of the diaspora in Ukraine, and we speak from the positions of friendship and brotherhood . My team and I defend the need for Armenia to recognize the Holodomor as a genocide of the Ukrainian people and sent a corresponding letter to Nikol Pashinyan.
Now we are making every effort to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the war against the enemy. I hope that when everything ends with the victory of Ukraine, the Armenian diaspora will consolidate even more and will contribute to the improvement of relations between Kyiv and Yerevan.
The decision to create an appropriate political party is long overdue. Let's see how we continue to work, now all efforts are for the common goal – to end the war and defeat the Russian troops. Today in Ukraine, and tomorrow, perhaps, in Armenia.
