There are optimistic and pessimistic scenarios: will Russia be able to wage war in 2025

There are optimistic and pessimistic scenarios: will Russia be able to wage war in 2025? Angela Figin

~6 0~p _ngcontent-sc160 class=”news-annotation”>Russia does not plan to end the war in Ukraine, as it is increasing defense spending for 2025. However, the plans of the aggressor country could be ruined by the economic situation, which the Kremlin is trying to save from collapse.

This opinion was expressed to 24 Kanal by Ivan Us, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies. He named three scenarios – optimistic, realistic and pessimistic – for Russia in terms of its ability to continue the so-called “svo”.

What determines whether Russia will be able to continue the war

According to the optimistic scenario for Russia, Saudi Arabia will not increase oil production, which it promises to do from December 1. And also that the West will begin to lift sanctions.

Sometimes statements are made that say, let's reduce the pressure on Russia, because sanctions also harm the countries that impose them. It will be beneficial for Russia if countries give in to the idea of ​​minimizing sanctions, as was the case with Kaliningrad, Us said.

Recall that the EU sanctions provided for a ban on the supply of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, but then they allowed the import of goods by rail, and banned them only by road.

The normal scenario is if Saudi Arabia does start producing, but not as much, and the sanctions remain as they are now, and no one will tighten them.

Russia has already gotten used to this situation, so it will be able to exist, noted the chief consultant of the National Institute of Strategic research.

A significant increase in Saudi Arabia's oil production will have an extremely negative impact on the aggressor country. According to the pessimistic scenario, Russia could be thrown out of the world oil market. At the same time, sanctions will be tightened.

In addition, secondary sanctions on countries that have contacts with Russia are increasingly beginning to take effect. Accordingly, these countries will have a choice – either to continue to contact the aggressor, or to stop cooperation and improve relations with the world's leading economies and financial centers in the West.

By the way, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov stated that by the end of 2025 or at the beginning of 2026 Vladimir Putin will try to end the war in Ukraine. According to him, already in the summer of 2025 serious problems in the economy will begin in Russia and there will be a need for mobilization, which can destabilize the socio-political situation in the aggressor country.