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On the night of January 29, explosions rocked a number of strategic facilities in Iran. However, the Iranian side called the attack minimal and the damage insignificant.
At present, the country is not filing charges against anyone, because it is deciding how to present it correctly. Such a reaction is absolutely predictable. About this24 ChannelSergey Danilov, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies, said.
As Danilov notes, there are several reasons for the Iranian reaction:
- Firstly, the damage must be downplayed, demonstrate confidence, strength, tell about powerful air defense, which is able to repel an attack.
- Secondly, the enemy must be misled. “Any information about the defeat can provide additional information about the object. Intelligence works, but there is always a certain percentage of uncertainty. The Iranians are great masters of hiding, hiding, camouflaging,” Danilov notes. For example, they represent a toy factory as a military facility. And it really will turn out to be a toy factory.
- Thirdly, the situation in the country is quite tense, so do not sow panic. The fact is that the majority of Iranians oppose the foundations of the Islamic republic, many rejoiced at the blows inflicted. “There is no reason to spread information about either the scale or the nature of the defeats,” says the deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies.
New explosions in Iran/US do not exclude military action/Blinken's important statement: watch the video
Who might be behind the attack
According to Danilov, most likely, the drones were launched from the territory of Iran itself. There are quite a few uncontrolled regions in the country, so it is technically possible to do this. As for the potential authors of the blow, it is necessary to separate: interested, capable and did it. There are many interested parties, including Ukraine. It is assumed that the United States is also involved in the attack.
There is an opinion that the attack may be beneficial to Azerbaijan. But the country will not take such a step, says Danilov, despite the fact that relations are very tense. There were actions on the part of Iran that could be interpreted as preparations for an invasion.
However, Azerbaijan does not need to open a second front at all. He defeated the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, now it is necessary to ensure stability in the South Caucasus in order to end this long war on our own terms, Sergey Danilov assures.
Azerbaijan will not get involved in any adventures outside the region , especially with an opponent who has much more resources. Therefore, such a scenario, Danilov is sure, is impossible.
Yes, there have been protests in Tabriz (the capital of South Azerbaijan) over the past six months. However, one must keep in mind: the Azerbaijani minority is very integrated into the political establishment of Iran. “The supreme leader is Azerbaijani, a lot of generals – both in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and in the army – are Azerbaijanis by origin,” Danilov said. Therefore, Iranian Azerbaijanis do not perceive Iran as a foreign country. They have not closed social elevators to the very first positions in the state.
“There can be a lot of versions. But in fact, everyone knows the answer – the strike was carried out by the Israeli army,” says the deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies.
“Cotton ” in Iran plays into the hands of Ukraine
- The drone attack on Iran has positive consequences for Ukrainians. These events will cast doubt on the likelihood of deliveries of weapons to Russia, which uses them for the war against Ukraine
- As Ivan Stupak, an ex-SBU employee and expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, noted, even special protection systems did not save the Iranians from the “cotton”. He is also sure that the attack was carried out by Israel, which has been working for a long time to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and eliminate scientists in development.
- The latest developments in Iran are certainly working in Ukraine. Any destruction, damage to the Iranian program for the production of drones and missiles contributes to us. According to Stupak, large shipments of these drones from Iran to Russia should not be expected in the near future. However, some of them may already be on the way.
