Among the main achievements of the past week — Ukrainian military holding most of the front line. Among the losses — Avdiivka bridgehead, from where Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw.
An important event of the week was the destruction of the Russian Airborne Commander Tsezar Kunikov, which negatively affected the logistics of the invaders. It also causes reputational damage to the Kremlin.
In addition, at the last meeting in the Ramstein format, which took place on February 14, several important statements were made, in particular, about the creation of a Coalition to supply Ukraine with modern drones.
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How will these events affect the situation at the front — military experts Alexander Kovalenko and Oleg Zhdanov spoke about this in a commentary to ICTV Facts.We also talked about the overall picture in the main directions.
- Withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka
- Reduction of fighting on several directions
- The situation in Zaporozhye
- Kherson direction
- When to expect the Russian Federation to intensify its actions
- Ramstein results
- The sinking of the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov
Withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka
February 17, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky reported that Ukrainian units were withdrawing from Avdiivka due to the situation around the city and in order to preserve the lives and health of the military .
According to military experts, this will not have a negative impact on the operational situation.
— We have a defense line there that was prepared a long time ago. From the point of view of moral and psychological state, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka will have a negative impact. And if we talk about the operational situation, we also won, since our front line, due to its alignment, will decrease by at least 30 km, — says military expert Oleg Zhdanov.
According to him, now the occupiers will have to fight the direct front line, which is the most difficult task in terms of breaking through the defense.
— The Russians razed the city to the ground, just as they had previously done the same with Bakhmut. At the same time, they leveled the front and eliminated our bridgehead. But now they will run into a continuous line of defense, where they have no foothold, — he says.
Avdeevskoe direction
That is, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka as a whole will not seriously affect the front, because our line of defense begins behind this settlement, which has been formed over the years. And this, in particular, will give the Ukrainian Defense Forces the opportunity to increase the density of troops in this area.
— Such news from the front line does not mean that the Russians will have some kind of breakthrough. If you look at the situation along the line of military contact, Avdeevka did not have any great tactical and strategic significance specifically for the Russian Federation. It does not open the way for them to any other directions.
Even if we look north, in the direction of Konstantinovka it is almost 25 km through defensive and defensive lines. It doesn't give them any advantage. Avdeevka was an exclusively political project of the Russian Federation, created so that Putin could demonstrate the capture of the city as another “victory” Russia, — noted the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko.
He noted that one of the narratives the Russians emphasized when talking about the importance of capturing Avdiivka was that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the city opens the way for them to the Dnieper through Pokrovsk, through Pavlograd. And this is 200 km, which is nonsense.
— Avdeevka is not actually a road to the Dnieper, it is only to the north of Avdeevka along the 0511 highway that you can get to Pokrovsk, as well as along the E50 highway, — says Kovalenko.
According to Kovalenko, the future situation will be the same as after the capture of Bakhmut.
— Nothing will happen for 6 months or even a year. The same thing happened in Bakhmut. They captured it, what next? They couldn’t even take Ivanovskoye, a village that is located at arm’s length from Bakhmut, — notes Alexander Kovalenko.
Reduction of battles on several directions
On Kupyansky and Lymansky directions enemy activity decreased somewhat. This is due to the fact that Russia transferred most of its units and units from there and partly from the Lugansk region to the Avdiivka direction in order to strengthen it. And this, in turn, suggests that the enemy no longer has so much strength and means.
Kupyanskoe direction
— In the Kupyansky and Limansky directions today there is more or less calm, 2-4 attacks per day. But two weeks ago it was quite active there — the enemy made another attempt to go on the offensive and there was enormous pressure from the Russian troops. But our fighters held the lines, except for Kakhmalny, where we partially lost ground, — notes Oleg Zhdanov.
Starchy — the only achievement that the Russian army has had in these areas recently. And after that, the Ukrainian military inflicted serious losses on the enemy troops, which is why they were forced to regroup. Now, according to some estimates, the deployment of Russian troops in the Kupyansk-Liman direction continues.
Bakhmut direction
In addition, the enemy has significantly reduced combat activity in the Bakhmutsky and Zaporozhye directions. The opposite situation is only near Avdeevka and Marinka.
The situation in Zaporozhye
The situation in the Zaporozhye direction is stable, and combat activity there has been reduced.
— According to the General Staff report, there are 2-4 attacks per day. Mainly west of Verbovoy and Rabotin. The enemy is not showing more activity, — says the military expert.
As for the situation near Rabotiny, in the Novoprokopovka area there was an attempt to break through our defense, but Ukrainian troops stopped it.
— The situation there is still more or less smooth. And if you look at the nature of the fighting, it is clear that the capabilities of the Russian troops are gradually decreasing. Now we see that the Russians cannot simultaneously conduct offensive operations in several directions, — adds Oleg Zhdanov.
The expert also commented on the information about the accumulation of occupying troops in the Zaporozhye direction, namely the enemy group Dnepr, about which military observer Konstantin Mashovets wrote. According to Zhdanov, it raises doubts. Moreover, today there is no clear figure how many military personnel there actually are — 10, 20 or 40 thousand.
— Now the enemy is actually changing the military command system and subordinating some units and units to other headquarters. Thus, it changes the structure and size of these groups, — notes Oleg Zhdanov.
Kherson direction
In the Kherson direction, despite the fact that the Russians cannot provide such reinforcements there as, for example, in the Avdeevsk direction, tension remains. There, as Oleg Zhdanov notes, fighting continues, assaults are taking place, but the intensity is reduced.
If two weeks ago there were 11-12 assaults per day in the Kherson direction, today there are only 2-4. In particular, the situation there is controlled by Ukraine, our artillery and drones are working very accurately. Thanks to their use, we have fire support while defending ourselves.
But the situation in the Kherson direction may change somewhat, the military expert notes, if the occupiers transfer some of their troops there during the regrouping and restoration of combat capability in the Avdeevsky direction.
— Trying to reset our bridgehead from the left bank is perhaps the second most important task for Russian troops. Because the presence of such a bridgehead gives us a chance to expand it, — says Oleg Zhdanov.
When to expect the Russian Federation to intensify its actions
The Russians are now preparing the conditions for activation in the areas that are most profitable for them.
— This, in particular, concerns the Kupyansky direction, the Bakhmut area, where Chasov Yar, Novomikhailovka, the resumption of hostilities in the Ugledar area, as well as in the Zaporozhye region in the direction of Verbovoye-Rabotino-Novoprokopovka, — notes Alexander Kovalenko.
But these plans of the invaders are on pause until the completion of the so-called presidential elections in the Russian Federation. Now, first of all, appropriate conditions will be created there for the next offensive.
— Because during elections, Putin does not need any operations not according to plan, as was the case with Avdievka, when they launched an offensive on October 10 and it ended in a complete fiasco for them. They will also avoid any major offensive actions where they could result in large losses and zero results for them, — says Alexander Kovalenko.
Therefore, the main catalyst for hostilities will occur after the elections.
Ramstein results
This week there was a meeting of Ramstein, which was quite successful, especially when it comes to creating a coalition of drones and additionally a coalition of air defense systems.
— We also heard that NATO wants to take over the coordination of the supply of equipment and weapons to Ukraine. Plus, NATO countries have committed to providing Ukraine with a million drones during the current year, — noted Oleg Zhdanov.
The only thing Ukraine didn’t hear at the meeting was — breakthrough solutions for the supply of ammunition and heavy weapons.
— We need artillery, ammunition today. In principle, withdrawal from Avdeevka — this is the result of a shortage of ammunition. We actually had nothing to defend this city with. This is the main problem with the retreat of our forces from there, — Oleg Zhdanov.
The most pleasant news from Ramstein — Ukraine is assured that the aircraft will be handed over on time, that is, in March-April.
The sinking of the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov
Since the Russians use large landing ships to transport equipment, ammunition, and personnel, the sinking of such a unit complicates the logistics of enemy troops.
— According to intelligence, this ship was sailing from Novorossiysk to Sevastopol and was loaded with ammunition and missiles. By the way, there is information that there were Korean specialists on the ship who accompanied the missiles and were supposed to monitor the results of their combat use.
Destruction — This is a complication of logistics. The occupiers cannot load the Crimean Bridge; it has certain restrictions that also apply to the passage of railway trains. That’s why they transport equipment and weapons to Crimea by ferries and airborne forces, — says Oleg Zhdanov.
Also, the loss of the large landing craft practically negates the Russian Federation’s ability to conduct an amphibious operation, which is a plus for residents of the southern regions of Ukraine, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kherson regions .
