Western officials are increasingly suggesting that the full-scale war unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine could drag on for another five years.
This was reported by The Economist.
The material notes that “these are not the happiest times.” The war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip threatens to spread across the Middle East. In the background there is a confrontation between the United States and Iran. Chinese aircraft and warships are increasingly threatening Taiwan.
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And the war in Ukraine, the worst in Europe since 1945, “shows no signs of ending.”
“Western officials increasingly believe that the war in Ukraine could drag on for another five years, while neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine are ready to surrender, but are also unable to break the deadlock,” the article says.
The publication writes that the military potential of the West will come under enormous pressure in the coming years. The war in Ukraine has become a reminder not only of how much ammunition is wasted in large military conflicts, but also of how limited Western arsenals and the means to replenish them are.
The Economist notes that Ukraine's use of air defense systems is likely to increase sharply in the winter when the Russian Federation, which has been stockpiling missiles for months, launches sustained attacks on the Ukrainian power grid.
The United States can probably now meet the military needs of both Ukraine and Israel. In addition, France and Germany announced an increase in assistance to Ukraine.
However, if one of the wars, or both, drags on, it will be difficult, says The Economist.
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“Compromises will have to be made over time as some key systems will be transferred to Israel… Some systems that Ukraine needs for a counteroffensive may not be available in the quantities that Ukraine would like,” said Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International, a Washington think tank. Studies.
An even bigger problem, argues The Economist, is that the US cannot actually arm itself and its allies at the same time.
“If our production lines are already struggling to cope with the need to arm Ukraine, then in the event of a real protracted conflict with an adversary like China, they will be completely overwhelmed,” Iskander Rehman of Johns Hopkins University wrote in a recent article on protracted wars.
The Economist says that if the war in Ukraine continues and the Middle East “continues to burn,” the West will be in a difficult position if another major crisis occurs.
One risk is that adversaries of the United States could exploit the chaos for their own ends. For example, if the United States becomes mired in a war in the Pacific, Iran will be more confident that it will be able to avoid responsibility for developing nuclear weapons.
European military planners also do not rule out the possibility that the Russian Federation may conduct threatening maneuvers during the crisis over Taiwan in order to divert US attention and tie up the capabilities of its allies, preventing them from lending a helping hand in Asia.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, also stated that the war with the Russian Federation could continue for a long time. According to him, the aggressor simply will not sign a single agreement with Ukraine and the coalition of allies, but will continue shelling without conducting active battles.
