< p _ngcontent-sc100="" class="news-annotation">We have not very pleasant, or rather very unpleasant information. Something needs to be done about this quickly. Decisions must be approved by the European Union and the G7.
Russian oil exports will increase significantly
The monitoring group of BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Strategic Research Institute reported important information.
The report said: “According to our preliminary estimates, Russia's maritime exports of crude oil from the Black Sea in January 2023 will increase significantly.” This growth will occur after the embargo and the price ceiling.
The growth will be 15 – 35%, and the volume of exports will be from 3.4 to 4.2 million tons instead of 2.9 million tons in December 2022. It all depends on how many tankers carrying Russian crude oil pass through the Turkish straits in the last days of January 2023.
This will definitely be more than the growth that occurred in December 2022 – the first month of the introduction of the European Union embargo and the “price cap” on oil to other countries. Then it amounted to 14.4%, mainly due to India.
By the way, in December 2022 Russia was able to replace 2/3 of the Greek tankers that previously transported Russian oil to other countries with ships from non-European countries. That is, those that are not subject to the “price ceiling”.
The Kremlin continues to receive huge profits
In December 2022, 24.7% of this oil fell under the “price ceiling”. Accordingly, 75.3% of the oil did not fall within the scope of the restriction, since it was transported by tankers that did not belong to carriers from the EU.
So, at first glance, these measures do not work. That is, Russia continues to receive huge profits from oil exports. If this is not changed immediately, the war will continue for a very long time.
How Russian oil exports have changed/Andrey Klimenko's graph
