The war in Ukraine is just the beginning: 7 things to understand/Getty Images
What, in my opinion, we do not see and, as a result, do not understand the allies: 1. The war in Ukraine is just the beginning. The world is waiting for a decade of struggle between autocracies and democracies.
With us, it is just beginning, and the allies are now preparing for a long marathon. We can win and move on with our problems. They, as the leaders of the world and Europe, are responsible for ensuring that democracies reach the marathon to the end and win.
2. Russia is not alone, even if other actors don't have “words” yet
DPRK and Iran play their roles. There are actors on other continents that we know very little about. China is the leader of the club. When allies calibrate responses to aggression, they must take into account the reactions of the entire “club”, and not just Russia.
3. Not all countries can survive the first shock of the transformation of energy markets by abandoning Russian energy resources.
India, whose population is growing at a rapid pace, and the level of prosperity is threatening, cannot provide itself with energy resources in the coming months at today's prices without outside help.
A USA, UK, EU do not have such a margin of safety and resource to help them too. Therefore, in the first period, until production increases and consumption declines, we will see how some refuse Russian oil, and some buy it at a discount.
4. Weapons don't grow on trees, and defense companies don't have enough production lines now to quickly replenish stocks.
Defense budgets of democracies are growing exponentially on different continents. But to make one Javelin, you need 300 semiconductors, which are in short supply. To produce many times more of what yesterday was not needed even in approximately such quantities, new production lines are needed.
And the world is waiting for a marathon. And every leader has an obligation to the Constitution and citizens – to prioritize the defense of their country. Therefore, in addition to providing us with equipment, the leading countries are investing significant resources in speeding up and increasing its output by several times.
5. Russia is a war according to Soviet standards, as opposed to the challenges that await in the near future.
We pay little attention to space blackmail, but space wars are a threat to ours, not to the next generation. And the club of autocrats is not far behind. Russia issued its first warning to the United States in space, destroying a satellite with a weapon test and endangering astronauts' lives with debris.
The war in Ukraine is a challenge for the world/Photo by Getty Images
6. With what losses and how quickly the democracies will pass the marathon and win – it depends on how much of the world they can unite.
The marathon begins with us. And now these two unions are being formed. Therefore, the task is not to kick Hungary out of the EU or Turkey out of NATO. Do not impose sanctions on everyone who maintains relations with Russia. Do not call the leaders of African countries corrupt…
The task is to find an approach to everyone, to explain, to make it profitable for everyone to join the coalition. Because everyone we push away is a potential enemy resource.
7. Instead of a conclusion
Yes, we are important, because today we are at the epicenter of the start of the defining events of this century for the world. Yes, no one will leave us, and our victory is vital for democracies, because, having lost 40 million in front of everyone in the middle of Europe, the marathon will go hard, as will unite.
But the world is larger than Ukraine. Therefore, what we consider necessary to win right now is not always what we consider necessary.
