It is unlikely that Russia will be able to expect to wage a war on 2 fronts, the candidate of historical sciences believes/Photo courtesy of an expert
On May 18, Finland and Sweden formally applied to join NATO at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The Kremlin did not ignore this fact and began to exploit the already traditional tactics of intimidation. Only now it is unlikely that this will bring him at least some success.
Will Finland have time to join the Alliance quickly enough to avoid threats from Russia, how Moscow can harm Helsinki, how likely it is for the Russians to land on Gotland – in an exclusive interview with the Channel 24 website, the candidate of historical sciences, member of the board of the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” said < strong>Yaroslav Chernogor.
Yaroslav, tell me, how long will it take from the moment you apply until Finland joins NATO?
In my opinion, there are two main scenarios here: optimistic and pessimistic.
The first will become a reality on the condition that already at the end of June the submitted application will be considered at the Madrid summit and soon it will be ratified. However, looking at the position of the same Turkey, perhaps this issue will not be resolved so quickly.
Fortunately, Hungary does not put forward any claims. But they will work with the Turks. And not only Finnish and Swedish diplomats, but representatives of other NATO countries.
Thus, the procedural part will drag on for up to a year.
Russia will have time to somehow harm Finland in the implementation of the pessimistic scenario?
I think that Boris Johnson came to discuss transitional security guarantees for Finns and Swedes for a reason. There is an understanding that certain barriers may be put up by the Russian Federation. In particular, diplomatic pressure, cyberattacks, economic restrictions.
As for military options, it is difficult to predict anything. Given Putin's highly unpredictable behavior, the question arises, will he risk using his armed forces once again?
The only thing I do not see is the real ability to use ground forces in a full-scale format. However, bombing or missile attacks on Finnish critical infrastructure are quite possible.
How will the allies act within the mentioned transitional guarantees?
In the event of absolutely any attack – be it a missile attack or the use of chemical weapons, and so on, the members of the North Atlantic Alliance can send their military capabilities close to the borders of the applicant countries if such agreements are reached within the framework of transitional security guarantees.
The armed forces of both Sweden and Finland are also strong enough to at least hold back the first strike, the expert recalls/Photo courtesy of the speaker
Sweden should prepare for a possible Russian landing landing on Gotland?
What has recently become known to the general public thanks to the aggressive rhetoric of Korotchenko on Russian television, has long been calculated by military experts. The Swedish Armed Forces are ready for such a scenario.
The war that Russia has been waging against us since 2014 has affected the operational planning of the Swedish defense department. Accordingly, an increase in the size of the Swedish army is already planned.
The Russians carried out aerial reconnaissance over the island of Gotland back in mid-January. At first it was two drones that were fixed over Swedish nuclear power plants. Since then, we have seen how the military contingent has been reinforced on the island.
Back in 2017, it was decided to return the troops to the island. The following year, this decision was implemented and, as a result, the troops were returned.
In January of this year, the contingent was additionally reinforced. In addition, the military also began to conduct military exercises on the ground. In particular, an operation was carried out to patrol the northern part of the island.
Most likely, the Swedish military leadership suspected that the Russian side might resort to the use of sabotage groups or something like that. This is also not surprising given that the Swedes from time to time spot Russian submarines and warships near their territorial waters. From time to time, Russian aircraft enter Finnish airspace.
Therefore, both countries are ready for an aggravation initiated by Russia.
What will be the reaction of the West if Russia decides to commit aggression against Finland?
The Finns will definitely be able to count on the same assistance that Ukraine is currently receiving. However, no one will fight for either Finland or Sweden. NATO will not intervene in this hypothetical conflict, as long as neither of the applicant states is a member of the Alliance.
How much is the Finnish army superior to the Russian?< /em>
Today, the number of Finnish personnel army is more than 20 thousand soldiers. But if necessary, the number is quickly increased to 280 thousand by attracting all the military personnel. That is, in terms of total strength, the Finnish armed forces are approximately equivalent to ours.
Well, and accordingly, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to expect to wage a war on 2 fronts simultaneously against Ukraine and Finland. The aggressor simply does not have enough manpower.
Not to mention the fact that the Finnish soldiers are many times better prepared. And even in the absence of constant military experience, they will give a worthy rebuff to the enemy. They will defend their native land, as we are doing now.
In general, the war against Finland for the Russian Federation will become a new Finnish war. Only this time the Finns will be much better prepared for it.
Does Sweden have something to counter the Russian gas blackmail?
I think that Russia greatly overestimates its own resource potential in the energy sector. Moscow clearly decided at the wrong time to use this lever of pressure. Even seasonality plays against this.
And Norway is quite capable of providing the necessary energy resources to both Sweden and Finland, since this country is one of the key players in the global energy market.
